Oviedo are finding life tough back in the top flight and sit deep in the bottom three, whereas Mallorca have settled nicely into mid-table safety. Three points here would be massive for the hosts, but the visitors have been picking up results on the road. The Tartiere will be absolutely bouncing under the lights.

Both sides usually go with a compact 5-3-2 / 3-5-2 that flips into a back five without the ball – proper Spanish defensive setups that love a counter-attack.

Oviedo are struggling to create anything meaningful (just 3.1 shots on target per game) and are getting opened up far too easily, while Mallorca sit deep, soak up pressure and hit on the break – they’re far more efficient with 3.5 shots on target. Set pieces could be decisive: Oviedo concede 0.5 per game from dead balls and Mallorca nick 0.3.

Oviedo’s last ten: 1 win, 3 draws, 6 defeats – 8 scored, 19 conceded, three clean sheets. They’ve been hard to break down at times but simply can’t find the net.

Mallorca’s last ten: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats – 14 scored, 13 conceded, three clean sheets. Patchy overall but picking up vital away points.

Oviedo at home (last 10 competitive): win rate 10%, average 0.4 scored, 1.6 conceded. Only one home win all season – the Tartiere hasn’t been the fortress they hoped.

Mallorca away (last 10 competitive): win rate 30%, average 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded. They’ve won two of their last four on the road.

Mallorca create slightly better chances and are far harder to break down – the underlying numbers point to an away win or a low-scoring draw.

The last five meetings (all from Segunda or Copa del Rey) have been incredibly tight: Mallorca 0-0 Oviedo, Oviedo 2-2 Mallorca, Mallorca 1-0 Oviedo, Oviedo 1-1 Mallorca, Mallorca 1-0 Oviedo. Four of the five finished under 2.5 goals and Oviedo are unbeaten at home against them in the last three encounters.

Oviedo are desperate but toothless up top, while Mallorca are organised and picking up points away. The head-to-head history screams low-scoring draw, but the visitors look the more likely to nick it.

Prediction: Real Oviedo 0-1 Mallorca

Best Bet: Mallorca draw no bet – safest way to back the better side with the draw covered.

Value angle: Under 2.5 goals – 4 of last 5 H2Hs under, both teams struggling for goals.

Alternative: Mallorca or draw double chance – Oviedo have won just once all season.

Cards: Over 3.5 cards – both average over 2 bookings each.

Oviedo blunt in attack – Mallorca far more dangerous.