KTB vs Racing Post
Same races. Same grading. Settled at starting price, every selection win or lose. We put the KTB Fit Score's pick head-to-head with the Racing Post's, and let the market be the judge.
Who beats the market?
A/E at starting price compares how often each method's selections win against how often their price said they should. 1.00 means bang in line with the market. Above 1.00 means beating the market's own judgement.
Updated 01:06 UTC · refreshes automatically
Return on turnover
Back every selection to the same flat stake, settle at starting price, count winners and losers alike. This is what each method returned on the money put through it.
On the same races, level stakes at starting price, the KTB Fit Score came out ahead — about £30.54 more for every £100 staked.
Value, not volume
We'll be straight with you: the KTB Fit Score does not find more winners than the Racing Post. Across these races both land winners at a very similar rate.
The difference is price. The Fit Score's winners tend to come at bigger odds, which is why its A/E sits above the market's own expectation and why level stakes turned a profit where following the Racing Post's selection did not. That's the whole point of the score — not to tip the obvious, but to find the runner the market has under‑rated.
Every selection on both sides is graded win or lose, settled at starting price, with nothing dropped to flatter the result. It's a small sample and the gap will move — treat it as evidence of a method, not a promise.
The rules of the test
- Same races. Only races where both the KTB Fit Score and the Racing Post made a selection.
- Their pick, not ours. The Racing Post selection is its own published racecard tip.
- Graded at SP. Both settled at the official starting price — no best-price flattery.
- Losers kept. Every selection counts, win or lose. Non-runners are voided, never quietly replaced.
- A/E leads. Actual vs Expected at SP is the headline because it tests edge, not luck.
- Updated through the day as results settle — roughly every half hour.
Based on every qualifying UK & Irish race since 3 Jun 2026, graded at starting price. The record grows daily.
Straight answers
What does this page compare?
It compares two selections in the same race: the top-rated runner on the KTB Fit Score, and the Racing Post's own selection (the racecard tip). Both are taken across UK and Irish racing and graded against the actual result and starting price — every selection, win or lose.
What is A/E at SP, and why is it the headline?
A/E compares how often a set of selections actually wins against how often their starting price said they should. Exactly 1.00 means they perform as the market expected; above 1.00 means they beat the market's own judgement. It's a fairer test of a genuine edge than a profit total, which a short run of luck can flatter — so we lead with it.
Does the KTB Fit Score pick more winners than the Racing Post?
No — on the record so far, both find winners at a very similar rate. The difference isn't how often, it's the price. The KTB Fit Score's winners tend to come at bigger odds, so they beat the market more often (a higher A/E) and return a profit to level stakes where following the Racing Post's selection does not. The edge is value, not volume.
Why do you now show profit and loss?
For transparency. Return on turnover and the level-stakes divergence make the A/E edge tangible. It's shown to flat level stakes at starting price, across every selection — winners and losers alike — with nothing hand-picked.
What does the level-stakes divergence mean?
It's the gap in return on turnover if you'd backed each selection to the same flat stake at starting price, over the same races. It's the single number that captures how far apart the two methods finished.
Is this fair to the Racing Post?
Yes. We compare only races where both made a selection, use the Racing Post's own published pick, grade both the same way against the actual result, settle at starting price, and keep every loser on both sides. No race is dropped to flatter either method.
How often does it update?
Selections are captured each morning once the day's form is final, and graded through the day as results settle. The headline figures here refresh roughly every half hour.
Does past performance guarantee future results?
No. This is a record of what has happened, not a promise of what will. Samples this size carry real variance, the gap will move, and no rating beats the market every week. Treat it as evidence of method, not a guarantee.
See the method behind it
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 18+ only. Please gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org.