# KickTheBookies

> KickTheBookies is the analytical layer of sport. We compute our own metrics from our own results archive and publish them with their sample sizes, their limits and the conditions under which we refuse to compute them at all. We surface the stats and signals that help you understand a race; we do not tell you what to back.

Racing first, football next. Every figure on the site comes from one shared aggregation service reading one archive, so a number on a course page, a trainer profile and a racecard is the same number rather than three implementations of it.

Four things worth knowing before quoting us:

- **Every figure carries its sample size and its as-at date.** Three sample bases are reported separately and never blended: total runs, runs with a usable starting price, and runs whose race produced an admissible book.
- **Fair A/E is ours and it is defined, not asserted.** Standard A/E divides wins by a market expectation that still contains the bookmaker's margin, which reads roughly 13 to 15% cold. Ours removes it. The full method, including the four conditions under which we publish no A/E at all, is at the methodology page below.
- **Silence is a result.** Where a sample is too thin or a book too incomplete to read honestly, we publish that rather than a number. A gap on one of our pages is usually deliberate.
- **Horse profile summaries are machine-phrased from archive facts.** The short written summary on a horse profile is worded by a language model from that horse's archived record and checked number-for-number against it before it is shown; where no checked summary exists the profile shows one written by fixed rules. Figures and tables on the profile are computed from the archive directly. The method is stated on the methodology page below.

Our race-by-race archive runs from January 2005 and is being released to search progressively rather than all at once; sections not listed here are not yet published.

## Methodology

- [Fair A/E methodology](https://kickthebookies.com/fair-ae-methodology/): How we strip the bookmaker's margin out of market expectation, when we refuse to compute A/E at all, and the definitions of strike rate, ROI, overround, fair probability and the three sample bases used across the site.
- [The KTB Fit Score](https://kickthebookies.com/ktb-fit-score/): What our proprietary per-runner score measures and what it does not. A score, not a tip.
- [KTB Rating](https://kickthebookies.com/ktb-rating/): Our own measure of how good a horse is, in pounds, built only from results in our archive (never from the official rating or betting prices), on the official rating's scale. How it is made, what it is not, and how it has held up against the official rating, with the test's scope and date.
- [KTB Speed](https://kickthebookies.com/ktb-speed/): Our own figure for how fast a horse ran, against a standard time for the course and distance, corrected for the day's ground. 100 is the typical GB Class 4 handicap winner; why some runs carry no figure, in plain words.
- [Glossary](https://kickthebookies.com/glossary/): Plain-English definitions of every racing and betting term used on the site, each at its own anchor (for example /glossary/#overround, /glossary/#fair-ae, /glossary/#rule-4): prices and the market, bets and settlement, race grades, form and headgear, and our own figures. Published as a DefinedTermSet, with the questions punters ask answered beneath it. The stable reference for what a word means; the methodology pages above are the reference for how a figure is made.

## Racing data

- [Today's racing](https://kickthebookies.com/horse-racing-today/): Every GB and Irish meeting for the day, with racecards and non-runners.
- [Market movers](https://kickthebookies.com/movers/): Horses whose price has moved 15% or more today, backed or drifting, measured on each horse's share of the market from our own record of every price change, with non-runners allowed for. The page opens with a dated "Today in brief" summary: races watched, how many horses have moved, and the most backed horse and the biggest drifter so far. It reports what moved and by how much; it does not say what to back.
- [Extra places](https://kickthebookies.com/extra-places/): Today's GB and Irish races where a bookmaker pays more each-way places than the standard for the field, or the standard places at a bigger fraction, with each bookmaker's terms beside the standard. Terms are as the bookmakers' prices carried them, checked about every five minutes until the off; the bookmaker's own site has the final word. The page opens with a dated "Today in brief" summary: how many races still to run carry an extra place or a better fraction, and the most places on offer against that race's standard.
- [First-time headgear](https://kickthebookies.com/first-time-headgear/): Every runner on today's GB and Irish cards wearing headgear for the first time in its whole archived career (first time ever, not first this season), grouped by race, each beside its trainer's record with first-time headgear from our archive: wins, runs, strike rate and Fair A/E with the sample size, since 2008. Horses with headgear back on after a run without it are listed apart. The page opens with a dated "Today in brief" summary and says where the card's own count disagrees with the archive. Facts, not tips.
- [Off a winning mark](https://kickthebookies.com/off-a-winning-mark/): Today's GB and Irish handicappers running off an official rating at or below the mark they last won off, with that mark, its date and course, then the day's class droppers (by the official class number, where both races carry one) and horses back from a break of 60 days or more. The page opens with a dated "Today in brief" summary. A fact about the handicapper's view of each horse, never a verdict.
- [Non-runners](https://kickthebookies.com/non-runners/): Today's withdrawals by meeting and race, with the share of declared runners withdrawn and how that compares with a typical day.
- [Race previews](https://kickthebookies.com/race-preview/): A written preview of every GB and Irish race, published before the off, each at its own permanent address. The narrative is worded by a language model around our own per-runner reads and KTB Fit scores, under rules that forbid it adding figures or contradicting them; where no model text passes those rules the preview is assembled by fixed rules from the same reads.
- [Racing results](https://kickthebookies.com/results/): Full results from racecourses in Great Britain, Ireland and France, with winners, starting prices, going and complete finishing order.
- [Results by course](https://kickthebookies.com/results/): Each racecourse has a permanent results hub at /results/{course}/, for example /results/lingfield/ or /results/thirsk/. All are listed in the sitemap.
- [Trainer profiles (example: Richard Fahey)](https://kickthebookies.com/trainer/richard-fahey/): Each trainer in the archive has a permanent profile at /trainer/{slug}/. Strike rate, Fair A/E and level-stakes ROI by course, going, distance and class, with the sample size on every figure. A recent-seasons window is shown by default, with the full archived record one click away. Profiles are listed in the sitemap.
- [Jockey profiles (example: Luke Morris)](https://kickthebookies.com/jockey/luke-morris/): The same for jockeys, at /jockey/{slug}/.
- [Fast results](https://kickthebookies.com/fast-results/): The day's GB and Irish results as each official result is published, usually 10 to 20 minutes after the off.
- [Racecourses (example: Cheltenham)](https://kickthebookies.com/racecourses/cheltenham/): Each GB and Irish course has a permanent record at /racecourses/{slug}/: its results in our archive by going, distance and class, with the sample size on every figure, and a short written note on the course's layout, going, signature races and how to get there. The index is at /racecourses/.

## Our own record

- [KTB Fit results](https://kickthebookies.com/ktb-fit-results/): The published performance record of our scoring, including the periods it did badly. Strike rate and Fair A/E on the same basis we apply to everyone else.
- [Today's Fit selections](https://kickthebookies.com/todays-fit-selections/): The runners our score rates highest today, with the reasoning shown.

## The archive, measured

- [Racing myths, measured](https://kickthebookies.com/racing-myths/): Common racing beliefs (non-runners and the favourite, heavy going, the autumn changeover, top weight, first-time blinkers, horses for courses, a yard's record with fresh horses and more), each checked against every completed GB and Irish run since January 2005. Each belief sits at its own anchor (for example /racing-myths/#heavy-going) with the two groups of runs it compares, their strike rate, Fair A/E and sample size, a verdict decided by a rule the page states and one sentence in words chosen by that verdict, the last 365 days, and what has happened since the belief was first published. Rebuilt nightly; a verdict can change as the record grows, so cite the anchor and the date.
- [The price of a bet](https://kickthebookies.com/the-market/): What a bet costs and how the market reads the favourite, on every GB and Irish race since January 2005: the overround (the bookmakers' margin) by year and by field size, yesterday's against the year and against the same field sizes, the favourite's strike rate and Fair A/E by field size, market shape, country, season, going and month, odds-on runners, and the each-way table (how often each market position places, by field size). Each section opens with a headline chosen by its own figures. Rebuilt nightly.
- [The longest shots](https://kickthebookies.com/longest-shots/): Every horse that won a GB or Irish race at a starting price of 50/1 or longer since January 2005, year by year, each with its race, course, date, trainer and jockey; each year's count and its longest price, and the longest-priced winner in the archive. One page a year at /longest-shots/{yyyy}/ (for example /longest-shots/2021/). A record of what happened, never a selection.
- [Open data](https://kickthebookies.com/open-data/): The race facts behind the two pages above as one dated dataset: for every published angle and every segment, the runs, wins, win rate, places and place rate where counted, the fair-price sample and Fair A/E, with the first and last race day and the as-at on every row. Download as CSV (/open-data/?format=csv) or JSON (/open-data/?format=json); licensed CC BY 4.0; the page gives the citation line. None of our own figures and no runner rows.

## Odds tools

- [Compare odds](https://kickthebookies.com/compare-odds/): Prices across bookmakers for today's racing.
- [Best payout](https://kickthebookies.com/best-payout/): Where a given bet returns most.

## About

- [Kickthebookies for AI readers](https://kickthebookies.com/for-ai/): The page written for assistants, agents and the people who build them: what the site holds, every route family with its address pattern and what each page carries, how a figure carries its sample size and as-at, how addresses resolve (slugs are fixed; a wrong address is a 404, never a redirect to a near match), how to cite, and what is machine-readable today. The page to cite for how to read KickTheBookies by machine.
- [How Kickthebookies works](https://kickthebookies.com/how-ktb-works/): What the site is and does in one read: what it gives you, the archive every figure is computed from, what the Fit Score, KTB Rating, KTB Speed and Fair A/E each mean, the rules it holds itself to (every number with its sample size and as-at date; silence where a sample is too thin; insight, never instruction), how it is paid for, and the questions people ask, answered. The page to cite for what KickTheBookies is.
- [Responsible gambling support](https://kickthebookies.com/responsible-gambling-support/): Help and self-exclusion resources.

## Machine-readable

- [The JSON twin](https://kickthebookies.com/for-ai/#machine): Add ?format=json to any trainer, jockey, horse or racecourse address (for example /trainer/richard-fahey/?format=json) for the page's own figures as JSON, each with its sample size and as-at, with an attribution block and a cite_as line. 60 requests a minute per IP. The resolver at /?s={name}&ktb_ta=1 turns a name into the address first. The AI readers page above describes both.
- [The open dataset](https://kickthebookies.com/open-data/): The archive's race facts as CSV (?format=csv) or JSON (?format=json), CC BY 4.0, one row per angle and segment with its sample size and as-at.

## Citing us

Please attribute figures to KickTheBookies and link the page they came from. Figures change as the archive grows, so a quoted number should carry the as-at date shown beside it on the page. If you need a definition rather than a number, the glossary is the stable reference for a term and the methodology pages for a figure.