Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | Premier League | 27th September 2025

Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland lands on 27 September 2025 at the City Ground and feels like a proper early-season temperature check. The hosts are hunting a first league win in a few weeks after a busy run across three competitions, while the visitors arrive with a steady Premier League start and a defensive record that stacks up well so far. Expect a full house by the Trent and a lively away end — both sets of supporters know how big this is for momentum.

Tactically, the hosts lean into a proactive 4-3-3 that often becomes a 3-2-5 in possession: full-backs high, a compact box in midfield, and quick switches to isolate the wide runner. Out of possession the line holds reasonably high with pressure on the first pass. The visitors are happier in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid: a mid-block that snaps into counters through the striker and wide channels, plus a clear set-piece route. In short, territorial control and volume from the home side versus compact shape and counters from the visitors.

Recent context: the hosts have juggled Europe and domestic cups and have a couple of fitness concerns across the back line and midfield, which could mean some role shuffles. The visitors have a suspension to work around and a few longer-term absentees, but the defensive structure remains consistent.

• Ball share vs bite: the hosts average around 56% possession with 82% pass completion, building patiently before quick switches to the weak side.
• Selective punches: the visitors sit near 45% possession with ~8.4 shots per match — fewer efforts, but they pick counters and set-plays carefully.
• Dead-ball edge split: the hosts score roughly 0.2 goals per game from set pieces but concede 0.6; the visitors post 0.4 for and just 0.2 against — a real swing area.

Nottingham Forest last 10: 3–3–4. Goals: 13 for, 16 against (1.3/1.6 per game). Clean sheets: 2/10. The trend: decent spells of control but punished on set pieces and in transition; looking for a cleaner defensive platform.

Sunderland last 10: 4–4–2. Goals: 12 for, 8 against (1.2/0.8 per game). Clean sheets: 3/10. The trend: compact block, disciplined shape, and enough threat from restarts and counters to nick results.

Nottingham Forest at home (recent sample): mixed returns — one strong attacking outing early on followed by a couple of lean scores. Conceded from restarts has been the main pain point; cutting out second phases is key.

Sunderland away (recent sample): compact and patient, content to keep games tight and play for moments. Clean sheets on the road have been achievable when the block isn’t dragged deep for long spells.

The hosts are closer to 0.8 xG for and 1.4 xGA, while the visitors trend around 0.88 xG for and ~0.98 xGA. That suggests a slight chance-quality edge to the visitors if the game state stays controlled.

Recent meetings are sparse but tight. The last five competitive clashes: Dec 30, 2017 — Championship at the City Ground, 0–1; Sep 12, 2017 — Championship at the Stadium of Light, 0–1; Mar 22, 1997 — Premier League at Roker Park, 1–1; Aug 21, 1996 — Premier League at the City Ground, 1–4; Feb 16, 1991 — First Division at the Stadium of Light, 1–0. Margins usually fine and the opener has often swung it.

Prediction: 1–1 draw. The visitors’ compactness and set-piece threat should keep them in it, while the hosts’ territory and wide pressure generate enough looks to level things up. A cagey, competitive ninety with spells of pressure both ways.

Main Pick: Double Chance: Sunderland or Draw — stronger early defensive metrics (0.8 GA, 40% clean sheets) and comfort in a mid-block make this a solid angle.

Value Play: Both Teams To Score — both sides have landed BTTS in ~60% of their recent 10-match samples.