Augsburg vs Mainz

At the WWK Arena on 20 September 2025, Augsburg host Mainz in a tidy early-season barometer. The hosts are trying to settle into a steadier rhythm after a streaky run last term, while the visitors arrive with a punchy attack and a well-drilled out-of-possession plan. Expect a full house, strong travelling support, and a match shaped by who manages transitions best.

Shape-wise, Augsburg tend to work from a compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 hybrid, pressing in short bursts and looking to feed the striker quickly once the ball turns over. Mainz usually sit closer to 4-2-3-1, accept a near 50% share of the ball, and spring fast into the channels. The styles mesh for a game that could swing on second balls and the quality of the final pass.

Augsburg average roughly 50% possession across last season and take about 11.9 shots with 3.35 on target, pointing to selective shot quality rather than sheer volume. The hosts’ best phases come when the double pivot locks the middle and releases the wide runner early.

Mainz create at around 1.47 xG per game and allow roughly the same, a profile that suits back-and-forth moments. With 4.41 shots on target from 10.88 attempts, the visitors are efficient when they work the ball into central lanes and pull the back line side-to-side.

Set-up suggests an even territorial split and plenty of transitions; whoever controls rest defence and defensive spacing between full-backs and centre-backs should dictate the flow.

Augsburg (last 10): 3–2–5, goals 8 for / 16 against (0.8/1.6 per game), ~3 clean sheets. Patchy but capable of squeezing out narrow wins when the block holds.

Mainz (last 10): 3–5–2, goals 18 for / 16 against (1.8/1.6 per game), ~1 clean sheet. High BTTS profile with enough threat to score in most scenarios.

Augsburg: 1.21  |  Mainz: 1.68

Augsburg: 1.50  |  Mainz: 1.26

Augsburg: 32.35%  |  Mainz: 26.47%

Augsburg: 50.24%  |  Mainz: 50.00%

Augsburg: 11.85 / 3.35  |  Mainz: 10.88 / 4.41

Augsburg: 1.11  |  Mainz: 1.47

Augsburg: 1.31  |  Mainz: 1.47

Augsburg: 78.81%  |  Mainz: 75.00%

Mainz: 47.06% under / 52.94% over  |  (Augsburg: data not available)

Augsburg at home (recent sequence): roughly 1W–1D–3L across the latest five at WWK Arena, about 0.8–1.6 goals per game (for/against) with two clean sheets in that stretch.

Mainz away (recent sequence): around 2W–0D–3L across the latest five trips, averaging about 1.6 scored / 2.0 conceded. Capable of big away spells but do give you chances.

Augsburg typically create around 1.11 xG and allow 1.31 xGA; Mainz are closer to 1.47 xG with 1.47 xGA. That hints at a slight creation edge for the visitors, but with both sides allowing chances, the expected quality looks fairly even overall.

The recent five have been tight: 0–0 in Augsburg (08 Feb 2025), 2–2 in Mainz (20 Sep 2024), 1–0 in Augsburg (17 Feb 2024), 2–1 in Mainz (23 Sep 2023), and 3–1 in Augsburg (11 Feb 2023). Edges swing with venue; draws have been a theme lately.

Augsburg’s home edge meets Mainz’s slightly sharper chance creation. With both sides allowing opportunities, this sets up for a score draw unless one back line tidies up quickly. Prediction: 1–1 draw.

Main Pick: Mainz, draw no bet. The visitors’ xG and recent scoring rates give them a good chance.