Sunday 1 November
Racing, with the evidence.
Form, our own figures and the bookmakers’ prices, read against 313,253 races since 2005.
Or a date, like 3 jun 2019.
Today’s meetings
5 meetings · 36 races · next off 12:10 Worcester (in 13 min)
The market today
Which horses are being backed since the morning, and where one bookmaker stands clear.
Market movers
66/1† to 18/1 now 20/1
25/1† to 15/2
7/1† to 2/1
50/1 to 20/1 now 33/1
9/2† to 11/1
7/2 to 8/1 now 15/2
Standout prices
Polly Poppins +27% vs general
Buddy Batt +25% vs general
Song of The Stars +25% vs general
What stands out today
Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.
Jockey change
Eastwatch (Curragh 3:12) — Andrew Slattery takes over from Sam Coen (seen 11:11): 24 wins from 205 rides for the yard, last 365 days.
12/1 this morning
Every runner on this ruleFirst-time headgear, a 20%+ yard
Bankatary (Huntingdon 12:57) wears hood for the first time; trainer James Owen’s first-timers have won 22 of 109 (20.2%) since 2008.
7/2 this morning
- Katie's Melody Worcester 3:40 9/1 this morning
Won last time, same mark
Lady Mary Heath (Curragh 2:02) won last time out and runs off the same mark today, 64.
10/3 this morning
Every runner on this ruleOff a winning mark, down in class
Idalko Bihoue (Worcester 12:45) runs off 122, 5 lb below the 127 it won off at Cheltenham in October 2023, and drops in class today.
14/1 this morning
- Egbert Carlisle 3:33 22/1 this morning
Handicap debut
Five Bar Gate (Worcester 12:10) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 110, after 5 runs.
14/1 this morning
- Grand Garcon Worcester 12:10 9/2 this morning
- Patrick's Wells Carlisle 12:38 5/1 this morning
- Kings Champion Worcester 12:45 10/3 this morning
All 13 rules met today, every runner
What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (15) · Off a winning mark (28)
Today’s conditions, measured
The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.
Soft ground today
Today: Curragh (Yielding).
- The flat favourite on soft: won 30.3% and placed 58.5% of 18,234 runs, fair A/E 1.09; on good it won 30.2%. Flat races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 19.7% of 16,560 races; on good, 19.8%.
- A favourite at 3/1 or longer on soft (its fair price, the margin removed): won 20.9% of 20,673 runs, fair A/E 1.11.
- The flat handicap top weight on soft or heavy: won 12.4% of 15,125 runs, fair A/E 0.97; on good or faster, fair A/E 1.03.
Won on this ground before: 22 runners at these meetings
- Bay Of Supremacy (Curragh 12:52) has won 2 of its 8 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Yielding To Soft.
- Gerrit's Gem (Curragh 12:52) has won 2 of its 9 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Yielding To Soft.
- Harry's Hill (Curragh 12:52) has won 2 of its 24 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Yielding To Soft.
And 19 more: every runner proven on today's going
On the record: “Weight tells in the mud” — Half true: weight tells in the mud on the flat only.
The favourite by goingThe autumn changeover
15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 31 October), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:
- The flat favourite: so far 399 runs, 122 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.7% and placed 59.9% of 12,751 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
- The jumps favourite: so far 289 runs, 103 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,074 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
- Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,644 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,043 races (May to September 17.1%).
- The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.9% and placed 62.0% of 4,482 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.1%.
On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.
On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.
The favourite by seasonBig fields today
7 races today have 16 or more runners: Curragh 12:17 (23 runners), Cork 1:05 (20 runners), Curragh 2:02 (25 runners) and 4 more.
- The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.0% and placed 55.0% of 23,493 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
- The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,263 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
- The standard each-way terms: Curragh 12:17: 3 places at 1/5 the odds (16 or more runners, not a handicap); Cork 1:05: 3 places at 1/5 the odds (16 or more runners, not a handicap); Curragh 2:02: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
- The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,171 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,050 runs, fair A/E 0.97.
On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.
The each-way tableWhat sits behind every number
Our own archive, counted nightly.
Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.
How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained
The archive, measured
The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.
Racing myths, measured
Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.
See the verdictsThe price of a bet
What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.
See the marketThe longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON
Three figures of our own
Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.
KTB Fit
How well does it suit this race, today?
A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.
KTB Rating
How good is it?
The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.
KTB Speed
How fast is it?
A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.
Top on our figures: how they ran
In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.
Top-rated on KTB Rating
6 of 34 won Saturday 31 October
- Strong Leader (GB) Wetherby13/8
- Kateira (GB) Wetherby6/4
- Ibtekar (IRE) Newmarket10/11
- The Skecher (FR) Ayr10/11
Since 5 October 900 ran, 221 won (24.6%) · fair A/E 1.02 over 898 priced · settled to 31 October
Fastest on KTB Speed
7 of 34 won Saturday 31 October
- Talamon (USA) Southwell (AW)13/2
- Lyra Lea (GB) Newmarket5/1
- Strong Leader (GB) Wetherby13/8
- Bengal Tiger (IRE) Newmarket6/4
Since 5 October 927 ran, 164 won (17.7%) · fair A/E 1.07 over 926 priced · settled to 31 October
Today’s results
As each official result is published.
No UK or Irish results yet — check back after the first race.