Backed: share of the market up 15% or more since the morning, non-runners allowed for. A drift is shown only for a race’s morning favourite (the shortest morning price) that has lost 20% or more of its share — 145 movers in 22 races so far · as at 15:53 UK time

All of today's movers

Standout prices

No runner’s top price stands 25% or more clear of the general price right now — as at 15:53 UK time.

Run today

How Decc

Punchestown 3:45 · stood out at 14/1 (generally 11/1) · 15/2 before the off, no longer a standout · result to come

Mellem

Punchestown 3:45 · stood out at 12/1 (generally 10/1) · 22/1 before the off, no longer a standout · result to come

Lady Scarphia

Carlisle 3:35 · stood out at 11/1 (generally 17/2) · 11/1 before the off, no longer a standout · Did not finish · SP 10/1

Of the 60 standouts that have run today, 14 won; the top price we listed beat the starting price for 37 of the 60 with a starting price. 57 had stopped standing out by the off; 2 results to come.

Compare odds

What a bet costs, and how the favourite fares, since 2005

What stands out today

Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.

Handicap debut

Apollon Forlonge (Stratford 3:55) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 112, after 4 runs.

11/4 this morning

Whin Cover Carlisle 1:20 3rd of 10 · SP 17/2 · 9/2 this morning
Born De Ceres Punchestown 2:38 7th of 9 · SP 20/1 · 9/2 this morning
Carrig Padraig Punchestown 2:38 4th of 9 · SP 40/1 · 10/1 this morning

10 runners today meet this rule, 1 still to run. Of the 7 that have run, 1 won.

Last 7 days: 110 ran, 8 won, 1 result not stored.

Every runner on this rule

First run over fences

Apollon Forlonge (Stratford 3:55) has its first run over fences in our archive, after 4 runs, 4 of them over hurdles (point-to-points are not in our archive).

11/4 this morning

Can't Resist It Stratford 3:55 4/1 this morning
Crossgales King Stratford 3:55 7/1 this morning
Klassy Pearl Stratford 3:55 11/2 this morning

16 runners today meet this rule, 4 still to run. Of the 12 that have run, 2 won.

Last 7 days: 80 ran, 12 won.

Every runner on this rule

Back from a break, with the yard’s record

Apollon Forlonge (Stratford 3:55) returns after 260 days off; trainer Warren Greatrex’s runners back from a break of 60 days or more have won 129 of 999 (12.9%) since 2008.

11/4 this morning

Count Adhemar Stratford 3:55 11/4 this morning
Klassy Pearl Stratford 3:55 11/2 this morning
Eroico Carlisle 12:20 6th of 14 · SP 100/1 · 50/1 this morning

58 runners today meet this rule, 3 still to run. Of the 45 that have run, 5 won.

Last 7 days: 548 ran, 66 won, 9 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Career-best KTB Speed last time

Apollon Forlonge (Stratford 3:55) ran a career-best KTB Speed figure of 110 (grade A) last time (Hereford, 22 Feb 2026), above all 3 of its earlier jumps figures in our archive.

11/4 this morning

Klassy Pearl Stratford 3:55 11/2 this morning
Dearg Mor Punchestown 12:00 5th of 12 · SP 9/2 · 4/1 this morning
Moorish Castle Punchestown 12:00 10th of 12 · SP 9/1 · 12/1 this morning

14 runners today meet this rule, 2 still to run. Of the 9 that have run, 2 won.

Last 7 days: 130 ran, 23 won.

Every runner on this rule

Off a winning mark, down in class

Kingston Bridge (Carlisle 2:27) runs off 104, 6 lb below the 110 it won off at Hexham in June 2024, and drops in class today.

9th of 14 · SP 33/1 · 20/1 this morning

She Is For Me Boys Stratford 2:50 4th of 6 · SP 5/1 · 11/4 this morning

2 runners today met this rule. Of the 2 that have run, 0 won.

Last 7 days: 70 ran, 2 won.

Every runner on this rule

All 8 rules met today, every runner

What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (12) · Off a winning mark (12)

Built by fixed rules from today’s card and our archive, not by anyone’s opinion; a rule that is not met prints nothing. As at 15:49 UK time.

Today’s conditions, measured

The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 8 November), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

The flat favourite: so far 525 runs, 165 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.8% and placed 59.9% of 12,877 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
The jumps favourite: so far 484 runs, 178 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,269 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,761 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,224 races (May to September 17.1%).
The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.8% and placed 61.9% of 4,543 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.2%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 8 November 2026.

The favourite by season

Big fields today

1 race today has 16 or more runners: Punchestown 3:45 (24 runners).

The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.1% and placed 55.0% of 23,512 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,279 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
The standard each-way terms: Punchestown 3:45: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,210 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,078 runs, fair A/E 0.97.

On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 8 November 2026. Fields as declared, non-runners out, at 15:53 UK time.

The each-way table

Fair A/E: winners divided by the chances the starting prices gave them, the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare rows with rows. Fair A/E explained

What sits behind every number

Our own archive, counted nightly.

313,674races since 2005

3,080,540runs recorded

276,187horse profiles

GB · IRE · FRracing covered

Counts as at 9 November 2026, 03:40 UK time, from our own archive.

Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.

How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained

The archive, measured

The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.

Racing myths, measured

Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.

See the verdicts

The price of a bet

What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.

See the market

The longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON

Three figures of our own

Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.

KTB Fit

How well does it suit this race, today?

A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.

How KTB Fit works Today’s selections The full record

KTB Rating

How good is it?

The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Rating works How the top-rated ran

KTB Speed

How fast is it?

A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Speed works How the fastest ran

On results and profiles, the letter beside a figure (A, B or C) grades how firmly it could be measured, not how good the run was: A is the firmest. Rating grades · Speed grades

Top on our figures: how they ran

In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.

Top-rated on KTB Rating

6 of 18 won Sunday 8 November

33.3% won · no pick in 4 races

Genietoile (FR) Ffos Las5/1
Anzadam (FR) Naas8/13
Nimba (FR) Sandown8/13
Love Me Tender (GER) Naas1/2

And 2 more winners.

Since 5 October 1,146 ran, 286 won (25.0%) · fair A/E 1.03 over 1,144 priced · settled to 8 November

Fastest on KTB Speed

5 of 21 won Sunday 8 November

23.8% won · no pick in 1 race

And 1 more winner.

Since 5 October 1,185 ran, 213 won (18.0%) · fair A/E 1.06 over 1,184 priced · settled to 8 November

Figures as they stood before the off, settled each night against the result. A tie at the top, or fewer than two runners with a figure, is no pick. Fair A/E = winners ÷ the winning chances implied by the starting prices with the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare picks with picks, not with 1. How KTB Rating works · How KTB Speed works · Fair A/E explained

Today’s results

As each official result is published.

Monday 9 November 2026 Updated as races finish

Compare today’s odds →

3:35Carlisle Class 5 · 2m1f · Good to soft · 11 ran

Racing, with the evidence.

The market today

What stands out today

Today’s conditions, measured

What sits behind every number

The archive, measured

Three figures of our own

KTB FitKTBFitMatched to the race

KTB RatingKTBRatingBuilt from the form

KTB SpeedKTBSpeedBuilt from the clock

Top on our figures: how they ran

Today’s results

KTB Fit

KTB Rating

KTB Speed