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Wednesday 4 November

Racing, with the evidence.

Form, our own figures and the bookmakers’ prices, read against 313,390 races since 2005.

Or a date, like 3 jun 2019.

Today’s meetings

6 meetings · 47 races · next off 12:05 Musselburgh (in 107 min)

Musselburgh GB Soft, good to soft in places 8 races · 2 NR first 12:05 Nottingham GB Soft 8 races · 1 NR first 12:15 Chepstow GB Good, good to firm in places 8 races · 6 NR first 12:20 Wexford IRE Yielding to soft 7 races · 10 NR first 1:00 Kempton (AW) GB Standard / slow 9 races · 4 NR first 2:25 Dundalk (AW) IRE Standard 7 races · 1 NR first 4:05
All of today's racecards

The market today

Which horses are being backed since the morning, and where one bookmaker stands clear.

Market movers

Shine On Sam

Wexford 4:20 · backed

28/1 to 8/1

Dance Ifyoucan

Chepstow 1:25 · backed

50/1 to 20/1

Rossie Girl

Wexford 1:00 · backed

33/1† to 11/1 now 18/1

Barton Pass

Chepstow 4:10 · backed

18/1 to 15/2

By The Lake

Dundalk (AW) 5:15 · morning favourite, drifted

9/2 to 14/1 now 12/1

Smoke And Fire

Chepstow 4:10 · morning favourite, drifting

85/40† to 11/2

Backed: share of the market up 15% or more since the morning, non-runners allowed for. A drift is shown only for a race’s morning favourite (the shortest morning price) that has lost 20% or more of its share — 273 movers in 47 races so far · as at 10:17 UK time

All of today's movers

Standout prices

Basics +50% vs general

Kempton (AW) 4:30 · top price 12/1 · generally 8/1 · standout since 09:12

10Bet 12/1

Mr McWhinny +38% vs general

Chepstow 3:05 · top price 11/2 · generally 4/1 · standout since 09:58

Unibet 11/2

Whistling Jamesie +33% vs general

Dundalk (AW) 6:45 · top price 11/1 · generally 17/2 · standout since 10:10

William Hill 11/1

A top price 25% or more clear of the general price (the middle price across the bookmakers we track), 15/1 or shorter, still to run — 11 runners as at 10:17 UK time. Prices change — check on the bookmaker’s site. 18+.

All standout prices and the record

What a bet costs, and how the favourite fares, since 2005

What stands out today

Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.

Back in its winning headgear

Quercus Robur (Musselburgh 2:15) wears cheekpieces, the headgear it last won in (Musselburgh, 5 Nov 2025) — its first run in that headgear since, after 3 runs without it.

13/2 this morning

1 runner today meets this rule.

Last 7 days: 3 ran, 0 won — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

First-time headgear, a 20%+ yard

Temple (Nottingham 1:50) wears cheekpieces for the first time; trainer James Owen’s first-timers have won 23 of 110 (20.9%) since 2008.

9/4 this morning

1 runner today meets this rule.

Last 7 days: 4 ran, 1 won — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Won last time, same mark

Kartini (Musselburgh 1:10) won last time out and runs off the same mark today, 55.

11/4 this morning

5 runners today meet this rule.

Last 7 days: 20 ran, 7 won — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Off a winning mark, down in class

Call My Bluff (Nottingham 1:20) runs off 78, 1 lb below the 79 it won off at Newbury in April 2026, and drops in class today.

50/1 this morning

16 runners today meet this rule.

Last 7 days: 60 ran, 6 won, 2 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Handicap debut

Nothingbutadream (Musselburgh 2:15) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 48, after 5 runs.

40/1 this morning

16 runners today meet this rule.

Last 7 days: 108 ran, 8 won, 2 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule
Extra places in 17 races still to runTerms →

All 13 rules met today, every runner

What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (21) · Off a winning mark (91)

Built by fixed rules from today’s card and our archive, not by anyone’s opinion; a rule that is not met prints nothing. As at 10:09 UK time.

Today’s conditions, measured

The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.

Soft ground today

Today: Nottingham (Soft), Wexford (Yielding to soft).

  • The jumps favourite on soft: won 34.4% and placed 61.4% of 30,152 runs, fair A/E 1.10; on good it won 33.8%. Jumps races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 17.1% of 27,858 races; on good, 16.1%.
  • The flat favourite on soft: won 30.3% and placed 58.4% of 18,243 runs, fair A/E 1.09; on good it won 30.2%. Flat races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 19.7% of 16,568 races; on good, 19.8%.
  • A favourite at 3/1 or longer on soft (its fair price, the margin removed): won 20.8% of 20,677 runs, fair A/E 1.11.
  • The flat handicap top weight on soft or heavy: won 12.4% of 15,129 runs, fair A/E 0.97; on good or faster, fair A/E 1.03.

Won on this ground before: 14 runners at these meetings

And 11 more: every runner proven on today's going

On the record: “Weight tells in the mud” — Half true: weight tells in the mud on the flat only.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026.

The favourite by going

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 3 November), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

  • The flat favourite: so far 436 runs, 136 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.8% and placed 59.9% of 12,788 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
  • The jumps favourite: so far 363 runs, 130 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,148 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
  • Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,678 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,111 races (May to September 17.1%).
  • The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.9% and placed 62.0% of 4,506 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.2%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026.

The favourite by season

Big fields today

4 races today have 16 or more runners: Wexford 2:37 (17 runners), Chepstow 3:40 (17 runners), Dundalk (AW) 6:45 (16 runners) and 1 more.

  • The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.1% and placed 55.0% of 23,501 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
  • The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,269 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
  • The standard each-way terms: Wexford 2:37: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners); Chepstow 3:40: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners); Dundalk (AW) 6:45: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
  • The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,180 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,057 runs, fair A/E 0.97.

On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026. Fields as declared, non-runners out, at 10:17 UK time.

The each-way table

Fair A/E: winners divided by the chances the starting prices gave them, the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare rows with rows. Fair A/E explained

What sits behind every number

Our own archive, counted nightly.

313,390races since 2005
3,077,685runs recorded
276,179horse profiles
GB · IRE · FRracing covered

Counts as at 4 November 2026, 03:40 UK time, from our own archive.

Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.

How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained

The archive, measured

The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.

Racing myths, measured

Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.

See the verdicts

The price of a bet

What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.

See the market

The longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON

Three figures of our own

Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.

KTB Fit

How well does it suit this race, today?

A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.

How KTB Fit works Today’s selections The full record

KTB Rating

How good is it?

The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Rating works How the top-rated ran

KTB Speed

How fast is it?

A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Speed works How the fastest ran

On results and profiles, the letter beside a figure (A, B or C) grades how firmly it could be measured, not how good the run was: A is the firmest. Rating grades · Speed grades

Top on our figures: how they ran

In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.

Top-rated on KTB Rating

14 of 34 won Tuesday 3 November

41.2% won · 1 did not run · no pick in 1 race

And 10 more winners.

Since 5 October 991 ran, 245 won (24.7%) · fair A/E 1.02 over 989 priced · settled to 3 November

Fastest on KTB Speed

8 of 31 won Tuesday 3 November

25.8% won · 2 did not run · no pick in 3 races

And 4 more winners.

Since 5 October 1,016 ran, 182 won (17.9%) · fair A/E 1.07 over 1,015 priced · settled to 3 November

Figures as they stood before the off, settled each night against the result. A tie at the top, or fewer than two runners with a figure, is no pick. Fair A/E = winners ÷ the winning chances implied by the starting prices with the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare picks with picks, not with 1. How KTB Rating works · How KTB Speed works · Fair A/E explained

Today’s results

As each official result is published.

Wednesday 4 November 2026 Updated as races finish

Compare today’s odds →

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