Backed: share of the market up 15% or more since the morning, non-runners allowed for. A drift is shown only for a race’s morning favourite (the shortest morning price) that has lost 20% or more of its share — 312 movers in 45 races so far · as at 18:16 UK time
Of the 145 standouts that have run today, 24 won; the top price we listed beat the starting price for 85 of the 145 with a starting price. 135 had stopped standing out by the off; 6 results to come; 4 became non-runners.
Built by fixed rules from today’s card and our archive, not by anyone’s opinion; a rule that is not met prints nothing. As at 18:09 UK time.
Today’s conditions, measured
The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.
The autumn changeover
15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 4 November), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:
The flat favourite: so far 469 runs, 148 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.8% and placed 59.9% of 12,821 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
The jumps favourite: so far 379 runs, 137 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,164 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,710 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,126 races (May to September 17.1%).
The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.9% and placed 62.0% of 4,512 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.2%.
On the record:“A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.
Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 4 November 2026.
The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.1% and placed 55.0% of 23,502 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,271 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
The standard each-way terms: Newbury 12:42: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners); Newbury 2:25: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,185 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,062 runs, fair A/E 0.97.
Fair A/E: winners divided by the chances the starting prices gave them, the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare rows with rows. Fair A/E explained
What sits behind every number
Our own archive, counted nightly.
313,453races since 2005
3,078,362runs recorded
276,179horse profiles
GB · IRE · FRracing covered
Counts as at 5 November 2026, 03:40 UK time, from our own archive.
Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.
Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.
KTB FitKTBFitMatched to the race
How well does it suit this race, today?
050100
A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.
On results and profiles, the letter beside a figure (A, B or C) grades how firmly it could be measured, not how good the run was: A is the firmest. Rating grades · Speed grades
Top on our figures: how they ran
In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.
Since 5 October 1,056 ran, 184 won (17.4%) · fair A/E 1.05 over 1,055 priced · settled to 4 November
Figures as they stood before the off, settled each night against the result. A tie at the top, or fewer than two runners with a figure, is no pick. Fair A/E = winners ÷ the winning chances implied by the starting prices with the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare picks with picks, not with 1. How KTB Rating works · How KTB Speed works · Fair A/E explained
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