Friday 30 October
Racing, with the evidence.
Form, our own figures and the bookmakers’ prices, read against 313,130 races since 2005.
Or a date, like 3 jun 2019.
Today’s meetings
6 meetings · 45 races · next off 11:35 Newmarket (at 11:35)
The market today
Which horses are being backed since the morning, and where one bookmaker stands clear.
Market movers
Iamtheidaho
28/1† to 10/1
40/1† to 16/1 now 25/1
10/1 to 4/1
50/1 to 25/1
10/11 to 5/2
5/2 to 5/1
Standout prices
Costacurta +40% vs general
Claude +36% vs general
Manoir de Mirande +35% vs general
What stands out today
Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.
Back in its winning headgear
Cosmos Raj (Newcastle (AW) 6:45) wears cheekpieces, the headgear it last won in (Redcar, 15 Sep 2026) — its first run in that headgear since, after 2 runs without it.
6/1 this morning
- Starliner Newcastle (AW) 8:20 5/1 this morning
Won last time, same mark
Fenlander (Newmarket 1:15) won last time out and runs off the same mark today, 69.
7/2 this morning
- Marching Mac Newmarket 1:15 9/2 this morning
- Devil's Brigade Newmarket 2:55 11/1 this morning
- Amused Newmarket 4:05 11/4 this morning
Off a winning mark, down in class
Al Hussar (Newmarket 1:15) runs off 78, 2 lb below the 80 it won off at Thirsk in May 2026, and drops in class today.
7/1 this morning
- Pike Road Uttoxeter 2:10 25/1 this morning
- Washington Wetherby 2:25 10/3 this morning
- Daring Legend Newmarket 2:55 33/1 this morning
Handicap debut
Tropical Sands (Newmarket 11:35) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 78, after 4 runs.
7/1 this morning
- Spill A Drop Down Royal 1:30 25/1 this morning
- Eustace Grenier Uttoxeter 2:10 13/2 this morning
- Fine Thing Uttoxeter 2:10 33/1 this morning
Back to its winning trip
Dialstone (Newmarket 11:35) is back to 1m2f to 1m4f, the trip of its last flat win (Bath, 12 Sep 2026); its last run was over 1m5f to 2m.
9/2 this morning
- Good Earth Newmarket 1:15 18/1 this morning
- Sneddy Eddie Down Royal 1:30 15/2 this morning
- Galaxy Star Uttoxeter 1:37 7/1 this morning
All 13 rules met today, every runner
What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (22) · Off a winning mark (82)
Today’s conditions, measured
The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.
Soft ground today
Today: Down Royal (Yielding, yielding to soft in places).
- The jumps favourite on soft: won 34.4% and placed 61.4% of 30,151 runs, fair A/E 1.10; on good it won 33.8%. Jumps races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 17.1% of 27,857 races; on good, 16.1%.
- A favourite at 3/1 or longer on soft (its fair price, the margin removed): won 20.9% of 20,673 runs, fair A/E 1.11.
Won on this ground before: 10 runners at these meetings
- With Nolimit (Down Royal 1:00) has won 2 of its 2 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Yielding.
- Butty O Brien (Down Royal 1:30) has won 2 of its 9 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Yielding.
- Le Grand Vert (Down Royal 1:30) has won 3 of its 16 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Yielding.
And 7 more: every runner proven on today's going
The favourite by goingThe autumn changeover
15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 29 October), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:
- The flat favourite: so far 362 runs, 108 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.7% and placed 59.9% of 12,714 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
- The jumps favourite: so far 239 runs, 80 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 34.9% and placed 61.5% of 13,024 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
- Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,607 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 11,995 races (May to September 17.1%).
- The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.8% and placed 61.9% of 4,465 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.1%.
On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.
On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.
The favourite by seasonBig fields today
4 races today have 16 or more runners: Down Royal 1:30 (23 runners), Dundalk (AW) 6:00 (17 runners), Dundalk (AW) 7:30 (17 runners) and 1 more.
- The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.0% and placed 55.0% of 23,490 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
- The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,260 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
- The standard each-way terms: Down Royal 1:30: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners); Dundalk (AW) 6:00: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners); Dundalk (AW) 7:30: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
- The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,151 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,038 runs, fair A/E 0.97.
On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.
The each-way tableWhat sits behind every number
Our own archive, counted nightly.
Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.
How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained
The archive, measured
The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.
Racing myths, measured
Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.
See the verdictsThe price of a bet
What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.
See the marketThe longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON
Three figures of our own
Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.
KTB Fit
How well does it suit this race, today?
A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.
KTB Rating
How good is it?
The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.
KTB Speed
How fast is it?
A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.
Top on our figures: how they ran
In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.
Top-rated on KTB Rating
9 of 32 won Thursday 29 October
- Buttermere Ridge (IRE) Punchestown11/2
- Headofthevalley (IRE) Ffos Las9/2
- Asuka (GB) Southwell (AW)7/2
- Margot Mae (IRE) Punchestown11/4
Since 5 October 830 ran, 208 won (25.1%) · fair A/E 1.04 over 829 priced · settled to 29 October
Fastest on KTB Speed
4 of 30 won Thursday 29 October
- Churchman (GB) Stratford5/1
- Gatineau Park (IRE) Stratford5/2
- Beaujon (FR) Southwell (AW)5/4
- Mini Mac (IRE) Southwell (AW)10/11
Since 5 October 856 ran, 147 won (17.2%) · fair A/E 1.05 over 856 priced · settled to 29 October
Today’s results
As each official result is published.
No results yet — check back after the first race.