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Thursday 5 November

Racing, with the evidence.

Form, our own figures and the bookmakers’ prices, read against 313,453 races since 2005.

Or a date, like 3 jun 2019.

Today’s meetings

6 meetings · 45 races · next off 12:42 Newbury (in 2 min)

Plumpton GB Good 7 races · 3 NR next 1:08 Newbury GB Good to soft, soft in places 7 races first 12:42 Clonmel IRE Good, good to yielding in places 7 races · 5 NR first 12:50 Newcastle GB Good, good to soft in places 6 races · 2 NR first 12:59 Chelmsford (AW) GB Standard 9 races · 2 NR first 1:57 Southwell (AW) GB Standard 9 races · 3 NR first 2:20
All of today's racecards

The market today

Which horses are being backed since the morning, and where one bookmaker stands clear.

Market movers

Rum Point

Southwell (AW) 5:00 · backed

40/1 to 13/2 now 7/1

Cheerio For Now

Newbury 4:05 · backed

80/1 to 20/1 now 25/1

Don't Fusseme

Clonmel 12:50 · backed

66/1† to 20/1

Lucky Tiger

Newcastle 3:50 · backed

16/1 to 5/1

Treaty Boy

Newcastle 3:15 · morning favourite, drifted

85/40 to 7/1 now 13/2

Letterston Lady

Newcastle 1:34 · morning favourite, drifted

3/1† to 17/2 now 15/2

Backed: share of the market up 15% or more since the morning, non-runners allowed for. A drift is shown only for a race’s morning favourite (the shortest morning price) that has lost 20% or more of its share — 290 movers in 45 races so far · as at 12:39 UK time

All of today's movers

Standout prices

Bombora +40% vs general

Southwell (AW) 4:00 · top price 7/2 · generally 5/2 · standout since 12:32

William Hill 7/2

Rhythm of The Rye +27% vs general

Newcastle 12:59 · top price 14/1 · generally 11/1 · standout since 10:56

Bet365 14/1

Rip Wheeler +27% vs general

Plumpton 3:22 · top price 7/1 · generally 11/2 · standout since 12:38

Bet365 7/1

A top price 25% or more clear of the general price (the middle price across the bookmakers we track), 15/1 or shorter, still to run — 5 runners as at 12:39 UK time. Prices change — check on the bookmaker’s site. 18+.

Run today

Crest of Stars

Plumpton 12:33 · stood out at 11/8 (generally 11/10) · 11/8 before the off, no longer a standout · result to come

Of the 0 standouts that have run today, 0 won. 1 had stopped standing out by the off; 1 result to come.

All standout prices and the record

What a bet costs, and how the favourite fares, since 2005

What stands out today

Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.

Won last time, same mark

Aire Spray (Newcastle 1:34) won last time out and runs off the same mark today, 103.

4/1 this morning

4 runners today meet this rule.

Last 7 days: 25 ran, 7 won — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Off a winning mark, down in class

Spirits Bay (Newbury 12:42) runs off 122, the mark it won off at Newton Abbot in October 2025, and drops in class today.

5/1 this morning

11 runners today meet this rule.

Last 7 days: 68 ran, 5 won, 2 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Handicap debut

Ballyvango (Newbury 12:42) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 109, after 7 runs.

18/1 this morning

28 runners today meet this rule, 27 still to run.

Last 7 days: 113 ran, 6 won, 2 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Back to its winning trip

Beorma (Newbury 12:42) is back to 1m5f to 2m, the trip of its last jumps win (Market Rasen, 19 Jun 2026); its last run was over 2m5f to 3m.

18/1 this morning

29 runners today meet this rule, 28 still to run.

Last 7 days: 215 ran, 21 won, 5 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Proven on today’s going

Faivoir (Newbury 12:42) has won 3 of its 13 runs on good to soft in our archive; the official going today is Good To Soft.

18/1 this morning

75 runners today meet this rule, 73 still to run.

Last 7 days: 470 ran, 55 won, 15 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule
Extra places in 12 races still to runTerms →

All 11 rules met today, every runner

What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (16) · Off a winning mark (60)

Built by fixed rules from today’s card and our archive, not by anyone’s opinion; a rule that is not met prints nothing. As at 12:29 UK time.

Today’s conditions, measured

The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 4 November), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

  • The flat favourite: so far 469 runs, 148 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.8% and placed 59.9% of 12,821 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
  • The jumps favourite: so far 379 runs, 137 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,164 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
  • Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,710 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,126 races (May to September 17.1%).
  • The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.9% and placed 62.0% of 4,512 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.2%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 4 November 2026.

The favourite by season

Big fields today

2 races today have 16 or more runners: Newbury 12:42 (16 runners) and Newbury 2:25 (17 runners).

  • The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.1% and placed 55.0% of 23,502 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
  • The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,271 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
  • The standard each-way terms: Newbury 12:42: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners); Newbury 2:25: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
  • The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,185 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,062 runs, fair A/E 0.97.

On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 4 November 2026. Fields as declared, non-runners out, at 12:39 UK time.

The each-way table

Fair A/E: winners divided by the chances the starting prices gave them, the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare rows with rows. Fair A/E explained

What sits behind every number

Our own archive, counted nightly.

313,453races since 2005
3,078,362runs recorded
276,179horse profiles
GB · IRE · FRracing covered

Counts as at 5 November 2026, 03:40 UK time, from our own archive.

Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.

How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained

The archive, measured

The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.

Racing myths, measured

Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.

See the verdicts

The price of a bet

What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.

See the market

The longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON

Three figures of our own

Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.

KTB Fit

How well does it suit this race, today?

A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.

How KTB Fit works Today’s selections The full record

KTB Rating

How good is it?

The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Rating works How the top-rated ran

KTB Speed

How fast is it?

A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Speed works How the fastest ran

On results and profiles, the letter beside a figure (A, B or C) grades how firmly it could be measured, not how good the run was: A is the firmest. Rating grades · Speed grades

Top on our figures: how they ran

In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.

Top-rated on KTB Rating

5 of 36 won Wednesday 4 November

13.9% won · 4 did not run · no pick in 7 races

And 1 more winner.

Since 5 October 1,027 ran, 250 won (24.3%) · fair A/E 1.01 over 1,025 priced · settled to 4 November

Fastest on KTB Speed

2 of 40 won Wednesday 4 November

5.0% won · 3 did not run · no pick in 4 races

Since 5 October 1,056 ran, 184 won (17.4%) · fair A/E 1.05 over 1,055 priced · settled to 4 November

Figures as they stood before the off, settled each night against the result. A tie at the top, or fewer than two runners with a figure, is no pick. Fair A/E = winners ÷ the winning chances implied by the starting prices with the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare picks with picks, not with 1. How KTB Rating works · How KTB Speed works · Fair A/E explained

Today’s results

As each official result is published.

Thursday 5 November 2026 Updated as races finish

Compare today’s odds →

No UK or Irish results yet — check back after the first race.

Fast results — every race today All results