KTB – UK & Irish racing, done properly — the stats and angles a racecard doesn't show you.

Backed: share of the market up 15% or more since the morning, non-runners allowed for. A drift is shown only for a race’s morning favourite (the shortest morning price) that has lost 20% or more of its share — 306 movers in 47 races so far · as at 12:28 UK time

All of today's movers

Standout prices

Darkwing +33% vs general

Southwell (AW) 7:00 · top price 6/1 · generally 9/2 · standout since 12:26

Bet365 6/1

Diamond Ali +27% vs general

Leicester 2:39 · top price 14/1 · generally 11/1 · standout since 12:26

William Hill 14/1

One of Our Own +27% vs general

Redcar 4:05 · top price 14/1 · generally 11/1 · standout since 08:34

Bet365 14/1

A top price 25% or more clear of the general price (the middle price across the bookmakers we track), 15/1 or shorter, still to run — 4 runners as at 12:27 UK time. Prices change — check on the bookmaker’s site. 18+.

Run today

Arctic Force

Redcar 12:25 · stood out at 13/8 (generally 5/4) · 11/10 before the off, no longer a standout · result to come

Olympiacos

Redcar 12:25 · stood out at 13/2 (generally 5/1) · 8/1 before the off, no longer a standout · result to come

Procyon

Redcar 12:25 · stood out at 5/4 (generally Evs) · 7/4 before the off, no longer a standout · result to come

Of the 0 standouts that have run today, 0 won. 4 had stopped standing out by the off; 4 results to come.

All standout prices and the record

What a bet costs, and how the favourite fares, since 2005

What stands out today

Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.

First-time headgear, a 20%+ yard

Jerseygeordie (Hereford 1:48) wears tongue strap for the first time; trainer Harry Derham’s first-timers have won 15 of 51 (29.4%) since 2008.

10/3 this morning

1 runner today meets this rule.

Last 4 days (the record began 4 days ago): 1 ran, 1 won, 1 result not stored — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Won last time, same mark

Fenlander (Leicester 3:49) won last time out and runs off the same mark today, 69.

3/1 this morning

Sterling Fortune Southwell (AW) 6:00 15/8 this morning
La Trinite Kempton (AW) 8:15 17/2 this morning

3 runners today meet this rule.

Last 4 days (the record began 4 days ago): 7 ran, 0 won, 2 results not stored — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Off a winning mark, down in class

God of Fire (Hereford 12:48) runs off 98, 2 lb below the 100 it won off at Newton Abbot in July 2026, and drops in class today.

5/1 this morning

Amantha Leicester 2:07 16/1 this morning
Naepoint Redcar 2:25 7/2 this morning
Red Derek Leicester 2:39 14/1 this morning

14 runners today meet this rule.

Last 4 days (the record began 4 days ago): 33 ran, 3 won, 13 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Handicap debut

Northern Exposure (Leicester 2:07) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 65, after 3 runs.

10/1 this morning

Tidal Force Leicester 2:07 14/1 this morning
Allroadsleadtorome Wexford 2:30 14/1 this morning
Champ Young Wexford 2:30 25/1 this morning

14 runners today meet this rule.

Last 4 days (the record began 4 days ago): 42 ran, 3 won, 11 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Back to its winning trip

Prairie Diamond (Hereford 12:48) is back to 2m1f to 2m4f, the trip of its last jumps win (Wincanton, 1 Apr 2026); its last run was over 1m5f to 2m.

10/3 this morning

Raffles Nobu Hereford 12:48 14/1 this morning
Coral River Galway 1:12 5/1 this morning
Champagne Dawn Wexford 2:30 5/1 this morning

39 runners today meet this rule.

Last 4 days (the record began 4 days ago): 121 ran, 19 won, 35 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Extra places in 18 races still to runTerms →

All 12 rules met today, every runner

What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (30) · Off a winning mark (72)

Built by fixed rules from today’s card and our archive, not by anyone’s opinion; a rule that is not met prints nothing. As at 12:09 UK time.

Today’s conditions, measured

The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.

Soft and heavy ground today

Today: Redcar (Soft, heavy in places), Leicester (Soft, heavy in places), Galway (Soft to heavy), Wexford (Soft).

The jumps favourite on heavy: won 36.2% and placed 63.2% of 15,878 runs, fair A/E 1.12; on good it won 33.8%. Jumps races on heavy won at 10/1 or longer: 15.5% of 14,724 races; on good, 16.1%.
The flat favourite on heavy: won 28.9% and placed 57.2% of 5,504 runs, fair A/E 1.03; on good it won 30.2%. Flat races on heavy won at 10/1 or longer: 18.9% of 5,026 races; on good, 19.8%.
The jumps favourite on soft: won 34.4% and placed 61.4% of 30,151 runs, fair A/E 1.10; on good it won 33.8%. Jumps races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 17.1% of 27,857 races; on good, 16.1%.
A favourite at 3/1 or longer on heavy (its fair price, the margin removed): won 21.6% of 8,324 runs, fair A/E 1.14.
A favourite at 3/1 or longer on soft (its fair price, the margin removed): won 20.9% of 20,654 runs, fair A/E 1.11.
The flat handicap top weight on soft or heavy: won 12.4% of 15,082 runs, fair A/E 0.97; on good or faster, fair A/E 1.03.

Won on this ground before: 28 runners at these meetings

On Your Way (Galway 1:12) has won 2 of its 5 runs on heavy in our archive; the official going today is Soft To Heavy.
Dandy's Angel (Redcar 1:25) has won 3 of its 18 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Soft.
She's Got Bottle (Redcar 1:25) has won 2 of its 7 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Soft.

And 25 more: every runner proven on today's going

On the record: “Heavy going is a lottery” — Heavy going is not a lottery in either code: the favourite wins at least as often as on good, and no more races go to a big price.

On the record: “Only back the short ones in the mud” — Backwards. On heavy it is the bigger-priced favourite that runs above its price, not the odds-on one, which behaves on heavy exactly as it does everywhere else.

On the record: “Weight tells in the mud” — Half true: weight tells in the mud on the flat only.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 25 October 2026.

The favourite by going

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 25 October), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

The flat favourite: so far 261 runs, 77 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.7% and placed 59.9% of 12,613 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
The jumps favourite: so far 179 runs, 56 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 34.9% and placed 61.5% of 12,964 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.7% of 11,509 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.4% of 11,940 races (May to September 17.1%).
The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.8% and placed 62.0% of 4,440 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.1%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 25 October 2026.

The favourite by season

Big fields today

6 races today have 16 or more runners: Wexford 1:00 (16 runners), Wexford 2:00 (16 runners), Wexford 2:30 (17 runners) and 3 more.

The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.1% and placed 55.0% of 23,485 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,256 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
The standard each-way terms: Wexford 1:00: 3 places at 1/5 the odds (16 or more runners, not a handicap); Wexford 2:00: 3 places at 1/5 the odds (16 or more runners, not a handicap); Wexford 2:30: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,130 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,024 runs, fair A/E 0.97.

On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 25 October 2026. Fields as declared, non-runners out, at 12:28 UK time.

The each-way table

Fair A/E: winners divided by the chances the starting prices gave them, the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare rows with rows. Fair A/E explained

What sits behind every number

Our own archive, counted nightly.

312,899races since 2005

3,072,797runs recorded

275,466horse profiles

GB · IRE · FRracing covered

Counts as at 26 October 2026, 03:41 UK time, from our own archive.

Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.

How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained

The archive, measured

The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.

Racing myths, measured

Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.

See the verdicts

The price of a bet

What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.

See the market

The longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON

Three figures of our own

Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.

KTB Fit

A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.

How KTB Fit works Today’s selections The full record

KTB Rating

78^C Merci Monsieur, top on KTB Rating in today’s Open Race

The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.

Free on every result and horse profile, and for every runner in today’s Open Race, below.

How KTB Rating works Today’s Open Race

KTB Speed

115^A Wadacre Icon, top on KTB Speed in today’s Open Race

A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.

Free on every result and horse profile, and for every runner in today’s Open Race, below.

How KTB Speed works Today’s Open Race

The letter beside a figure (A, B or C) grades how firmly it could be measured, not how good the run was: A is the firmest. Rating grades · Speed grades

Today’s Open Race

The figures above on a real race: every runner’s KTB Rating and KTB Speed, free, one race a day.

Free today Updated 12:28 UK time

Redcar 1:55 · Class 3

Wear Your Poppy With Pride Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race) · 1m 2f 1y · Soft, heavy in places · 10 runners

Runner	Trainer	Rating	Speed
Merci Monsieur	Andrew Balding	78^C	78^B
Nascondino	Daniel & Claire Kubler	69^B	98^B
Wadacre Icon	Charlie Johnston	67^C	115^A
Guthrum	Patrick Morris	62^C	—no graded run
Corallience	David Menuisier	55^B	61^A
Rowlf	William Haggas	51^C	—no graded run
Sergeeva	Rebecca Menzies	36^C	66^A
Eagleonthebalcony	Jim Goldie	33^C	—no graded run
The Resdev Tyke	Michael & David Easterby	—no figure	113^A
Gallus Millie	Simon Waugh	—none on record	—none on record
Duke Of Ormonde NR	David O'Meara	—none on record	—none on record

Ordered by KTB Rating · Past form, not a forecast · GB & Irish racing only · KTB Rating for 8 of 10 · KTB Speed for 6 of 10 · A–C: how firmly each figure could be measured, A firmest

All 10 runners on the racecard

Why one race is free

What you get The whole field's KTB Rating and KTB Speed for one race a day, before the off. Figures we show free stay free.

How we choose it The day's highest-class British or Irish race with at least five runners in which at least 80% of the field have a KTB Rating; if no race reaches 80%, the one with the largest share rated. Fixed before the first race. Whether figures exist decides it, never what they say.

Every figure a horse has run to Free on every result, form line and horse profile. How KTB Rating works · How KTB Speed works

Today’s results

As each official result is published.

Monday 26 October 2026 Updated as races finish

Compare today’s odds →

1:00Wexford

Abandoned

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