Racing, with the evidence.

Soft ground today

Today: Nottingham (Soft), Wexford (Yielding, yielding to soft in places).

• The jumps favourite on soft: won 34.4% and placed 61.4% of 30,152 runs, fair A/E 1.10; on good it won 33.8%. Jumps races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 17.1% of 27,858 races; on good, 16.1%.
• The flat favourite on soft: won 30.3% and placed 58.4% of 18,243 runs, fair A/E 1.09; on good it won 30.2%. Flat races on soft won at 10/1 or longer: 19.7% of 16,568 races; on good, 19.8%.
• A favourite at 3/1 or longer on soft (its fair price, the margin removed): won 20.8% of 20,677 runs, fair A/E 1.11.
• The flat handicap top weight on soft or heavy: won 12.4% of 15,129 runs, fair A/E 0.97; on good or faster, fair A/E 1.03.

Won on this ground before: 14 runners at these meetings

• Emperor Caradoc (Nottingham 12:45) has won 2 of its 8 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Soft.
• Fantasy Master (Nottingham 12:45) has won 2 of its 15 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Soft.
• Vince L'Amour (Nottingham 12:45) has won 3 of its 8 runs on soft in our archive; the official going today is Soft.

And 11 more: every runner proven on today's going

On the record: “Weight tells in the mud” — Half true: weight tells in the mud on the flat only.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026.

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 3 November), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

• The flat favourite: so far 436 runs, 136 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.8% and placed 59.9% of 12,788 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
• The jumps favourite: so far 363 runs, 130 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,148 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
• Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,678 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,111 races (May to September 17.1%).
• The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.9% and placed 62.0% of 4,506 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.2%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026.

Big fields today

1 race today has 16 or more runners: Chepstow 3:40 (16 runners).

• The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.1% and placed 55.0% of 23,501 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
• The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,269 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
• The standard each-way terms: Chepstow 3:40: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
• The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,180 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,057 runs, fair A/E 0.97.

On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 3 November 2026. Fields as declared, non-runners out, at 16:28 UK time.