Racing, with the evidence.

Heavy ground today

Today: Bath (Heavy, soft in places).

• The flat favourite on heavy: won 28.9% and placed 57.2% of 5,510 runs, fair A/E 1.03; on good it won 30.2%. Flat races on heavy won at 10/1 or longer: 18.9% of 5,032 races; on good, 19.8%.
• A favourite at 3/1 or longer on heavy (its fair price, the margin removed): won 21.6% of 8,331 runs, fair A/E 1.14.
• The flat handicap top weight on soft or heavy: won 12.5% of 15,106 runs, fair A/E 0.97; on good or faster, fair A/E 1.03.

On the record: “Heavy going is a lottery” — Heavy going is not a lottery in either code: the favourite wins at least as often as on good, and no more races go to a big price.

On the record: “Only back the short ones in the mud” — Backwards. On heavy it is the bigger-priced favourite that runs above its price, not the odds-on one, which behaves on heavy exactly as it does everywhere else.

On the record: “Weight tells in the mud” — Half true: weight tells in the mud on the flat only.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 27 October 2026.

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 27 October), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

• The flat favourite: so far 311 runs, 95 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.7% and placed 59.9% of 12,663 runs, fair A/E 1.09; May to September, 31.6%.
• The jumps favourite: so far 208 runs, 67 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 34.9% and placed 61.5% of 12,993 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
• Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,559 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.4% of 11,967 races (May to September 17.1%).
• The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.7% and placed 61.9% of 4,451 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.1%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 27 October 2026.

Big fields today

1 race today has 16 or more runners: Bath 3:42 (17 runners).

• The favourite in a field of 16 or more: won 24.0% and placed 55.0% of 23,489 runs, fair A/E 1.22.
• The second favourite: won 14.9% and placed 44.8% of 22,259 runs, fair A/E 1.16.
• The standard each-way terms: Bath 3:42: 4 places at 1/4 the odds (a handicap of 16 or more runners). "Placed" in the figures above means finishing in the places the standard terms pay.
• The top weight in a handicap of 14 or more: won 8.3% of 35,139 runs, fair A/E 1.03; the bottom weight won 4.3% of 34,031 runs, fair A/E 0.97.

On the record: “Top weight can't win a big handicap” — The top weight is the horse to fear, not to dismiss.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 27 October 2026. Fields as declared, non-runners out, at 02:38 UK time.