Backed: share of the market up 15% or more since the morning, non-runners allowed for. A drift is shown only for a race’s morning favourite (the shortest morning price) that has lost 20% or more of its share — 241 movers in 36 races so far · as at 18:20 UK time

All of today's movers

Standout prices

Montpellier Green +200% vs general

Newcastle (AW) 6:30 · top price 6/1 · generally 2/1 · standout since 17:44

10Bet 6/1

A top price 25% or more clear of the general price (the middle price across the bookmakers we track), 15/1 or shorter, still to run — 1 runner as at 18:20 UK time. Prices change — check on the bookmaker’s site. 18+.

Run today

Baila Conmigo

Dundalk (AW) 6:15 · stood out at 5/1 (generally 4/1) · result to come

Showyoutheropes

Dundalk (AW) 6:15 · stood out at 10/1 (generally 8/1) · result to come

Soaring Sun

Dundalk (AW) 6:15 · stood out at 5/2 (generally 2/1) · result to come

Of the 85 standouts that have run today, 16 won; the top price we listed beat the starting price for 48 of the 85 with a starting price. 85 had stopped standing out by the off; 5 results to come.

All standout prices and the record

What a bet costs, and how the favourite fares, since 2005

What stands out today

Today’s card read against our archive by fixed rules. The evidence is ours, the decision is yours.

Jockey change

Suzie Songs (Dundalk (AW) 6:45) — James Ryan takes over from G. F. Carroll (seen 16:11): 0 wins from 15 rides for the yard, last 365 days — a small sample.

7/2 this morning

Knightlight Dundalk (AW) 5:45 10th of 12 · SP 66/1 · 40/1 this morning

5 runners today meet this rule, 4 still to run. Of the 1 that have run, 0 won.

Last 7 days: 21 ran, 3 won — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Won last time, same mark

Battenburg Belle (Newcastle (AW) 7:00) won last time out and runs off the same mark today, 57.

8/1 this morning

Marianne Mozart Newcastle (AW) 7:00 13/2 this morning
Sugar Baby Newcastle (AW) 7:00 12/1 this morning
Oxford Circus Newcastle (AW) 6:00 result to come · 7/2 this morning

4 runners today meet this rule, 3 still to run.

Last 7 days: 21 ran, 3 won — a small sample.

Every runner on this rule

Off a winning mark, down in class

Montpellier Green (Newcastle (AW) 6:30) runs off 50, 21 lb below the 71 it won off at Curragh in September 2024, and drops in class today.

9/1 this morning

Tactical Blitz Newcastle (AW) 6:30 11/2 this morning
The Tunguska Event Newcastle (AW) 6:30 11/1 this morning
Winter Crown Newcastle (AW) 6:30 10/1 this morning

10 runners today meet this rule, 7 still to run. Of the 3 that have run, 0 won.

Last 7 days: 63 ran, 4 won, 2 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Handicap debut

Lady In The Gods (Dundalk (AW) 8:15) runs in its first handicap in our archive, off 47, after 3 runs.

28/1 this morning

Rosanella Dundalk (AW) 8:15 18/1 this morning
Imperfectlyperfect Hexham 12:25 Won · SP 6/4 · 7/4 this morning
Colonel Jack Hexham 2:45 result to come · 12/1 this morning

15 runners today meet this rule, 2 still to run. Of the 12 that have run, 2 won.

Last 7 days: 120 ran, 6 won, 2 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Back to its winning trip

The Tunguska Event (Newcastle (AW) 6:30) is back to 6f to 7f, the trip of its last flat win (Catterick, 21 May 2026); its last run was over under 6f.

11/1 this morning

Aviatrice Dundalk (AW) 6:45 13/2 this morning
Carolina Jetstream Dundalk (AW) 6:45 8/1 this morning
Bucky Larson Dundalk (AW) 8:15 28/1 this morning

30 runners today meet this rule, 5 still to run. Of the 20 that have run, 3 won.

Last 7 days: 213 ran, 24 won, 5 results not stored.

Every runner on this rule

Extra places in 4 races still to runTerms →

All 12 rules met today, every runner

What stands out today: every rule · On today’s angle pages: First-time headgear (12) · Off a winning mark (62)

Built by fixed rules from today’s card and our archive, not by anyone’s opinion; a rule that is not met prints nothing. As at 18:09 UK time.

Today’s conditions, measured

The ground, the time of year and the size of the fields, read against every British and Irish race since 2005.

The autumn changeover

15 October to 15 November, when the flat and jumps seasons overlap. This year so far (15 October to 5 November), against the same weeks in every year since 2005:

The flat favourite: so far 488 runs, 156 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 29.8% and placed 59.9% of 12,840 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 31.6%.
The jumps favourite: so far 408 runs, 145 won (too few yet for a rate); in these weeks since 2005 it won 35.0% and placed 61.5% of 13,193 runs, fair A/E 1.10; May to September, 33.0%.
Races won at 10/1 or longer in these weeks since 2005: flat 21.6% of 11,728 races (May to September 18.0%); jumps 15.3% of 12,153 races (May to September 17.1%).
The jumps favourite off 150 days or more in these weeks: won 36.8% and placed 62.0% of 4,520 runs, fair A/E 1.10; one that raced within 60 days won 34.2%.

On the record: “Racing gets hard to read around the autumn changeover” — The favourite in the autumn changeover window wins as often as in summer in both codes: the changeover is a story, not a season.

On the record: “A jumps horse needs the run after its summer break” — "Needs the run" is not in the numbers. The autumn jumps favourite off a summer break wins as often as one that raced within the last two months — the yards that send a fresh favourite out send it fit.

Every GB and Irish race from 2 January 2005 to 5 November 2026.

The favourite by season

Fair A/E: winners divided by the chances the starting prices gave them, the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare rows with rows. Fair A/E explained

What sits behind every number

Our own archive, counted nightly.

313,531races since 2005

3,079,129runs recorded

276,179horse profiles

GB · IRE · FRracing covered

Counts as at 6 November 2026, 03:40 UK time, from our own archive.

Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of racing: the stats, signals and records that help you understand a race, with the sample size and date on every figure. We show our working and grade ourselves in public. The call is always yours.

How KTB works · Horses A–Z · Trainers · Jockeys · Racecourses · Fair A/E explained

The archive, measured

The questions punters argue about, answered from every British and Irish race since 2005 and rebuilt every night.

Racing myths, measured

Does the jolly win more when a race falls apart? Is heavy going a lottery? Are the old boys still worth backing? Each belief checked against the record, with a verdict decided by a rule, not a writer.

See the verdicts

The price of a bet

What the bookmakers’ margin costs you, year by year and field by field; how often the favourite wins by field size, season and going; and the each-way table — how often every market position places.

See the market

The longest shots: every 50/1+ winner Open data: the facts as CSV and JSON

Three figures of our own

Each built from our archive and explained on its own page.

KTB Fit

How well does it suit this race, today?

A 0–100 figure for how well a horse fits the race it is about to run, built from form and connections and frozen overnight. In each race it scores, the top-ranked runner is published as the KTB Selection and graded in public afterwards, win or lose.

How KTB Fit works Today’s selections The full record

KTB Rating

How good is it?

The level a horse has been running to: an average of up to its last six runs, the latest counting most.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Rating works How the top-rated ran

KTB Speed

How fast is it?

A horse's best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs.

Free on every result and horse profile.

How KTB Speed works How the fastest ran

On results and profiles, the letter beside a figure (A, B or C) grades how firmly it could be measured, not how good the run was: A is the firmest. Rating grades · Speed grades

Top on our figures: how they ran

In every British and Irish race we score, the horse top on KTB Rating and the fastest on KTB Speed before the off, and how each one ran. Past figures are free.

Top-rated on KTB Rating

11 of 30 won Thursday 5 November

36.7% won · 3 did not run · no pick in 12 races

Masaccio (IRE) Newbury33/1
Courtbrack Boy (IRE) Clonmel9/1
J'arrive De L'est (FR) Clonmel8/1
Havana Touch (GB) Chelmsford (AW)3/1

And 7 more winners.

Since 5 October 1,057 ran, 261 won (24.7%) · fair A/E 1.02 over 1,055 priced · settled to 5 November

Fastest on KTB Speed

7 of 37 won Thursday 5 November

18.9% won · 1 did not run · no pick in 7 races

Without Compromise (GB) Southwell (AW)12/1
Coolnav (IRE) Newbury17/2
Benacre (IRE) Southwell (AW)7/1
Basilette (IRE) Plumpton7/2

And 3 more winners.

Since 5 October 1,093 ran, 191 won (17.5%) · fair A/E 1.05 over 1,092 priced · settled to 5 November

Figures as they stood before the off, settled each night against the result. A tie at the top, or fewer than two runners with a figure, is no pick. Fair A/E = winners ÷ the winning chances implied by the starting prices with the bookmakers’ margin removed. Favourites tend to run above 1 and long shots below it (the favourite–longshot bias), so compare picks with picks, not with 1. How KTB Rating works · How KTB Speed works · Fair A/E explained

Today’s results

As each official result is published.

Friday 6 November 2026 Updated as races finish

Compare today’s odds →

5:45Dundalk (AW) (IRE) 7f · Standard · 12 ran

Racing, with the evidence.

The market today

What stands out today

Today’s conditions, measured

What sits behind every number

The archive, measured

Three figures of our own

KTB FitKTBFitMatched to the race

KTB RatingKTBRatingBuilt from the form

KTB SpeedKTBSpeedBuilt from the clock

Top on our figures: how they ran

Today’s results

KTB Fit

KTB Rating

KTB Speed