Ajax vs Inter Milan | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 17th September 2025

A heavyweight opener in Amsterdam: Ajax welcome Inter Milan on 17 September 2025 with both sides eyeing an early statement in Europe. Ajax arrive unbeaten across their last ten competitive games and fresh from a tidy 3–1 over Zwolle. Inter’s league start has been chaotic (5–0 v Torino followed by tight defeats), but the squad depth is real and the ceiling is still sky high.

Expect a bouncing Johan Cruyff Arena – red-and-white flags, a full house and a fast tempo from the first whistle. Inter will travel in numbers too; they know an away result here shapes the group.

In terms of shapes, Ajax have looked comfortable in a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 blend: full-backs push on, wide forwards attack the half-spaces, and they keep the ball well (~62% possession). Inter, typically a 3-5-2 that becomes 3-2-5 in possession, build through the thirds with wing-backs high and dual forwards stretching the line; they’ll be happy to control phases then punch hard in transition.

• Ajax’s ball retention & left-side tilt: around 62% possession and 87% pass completion. They funnel a lot of progression via the left with overlaps from Youri Baas/Owen Wijndal to free up Steven Bergwijn inside.
• Inter’s wing-back supply line: even with only ~55% possession, they generate ~14.3 shots and ~2.0 xG with early deliveries and cut-backs from Denzel Dumfries/Carlos Augusto into Marcus Thuram and the second line of runners.
• Second-half swing: both sides trend late — Ajax score 60% after the break, Inter 55%. If it’s level around the hour, expect changes to decide it.

Ajax: Doubts/outs — Branco van den Boomen (back, October), Steven Berghuis (knock, late September), Ko Itakura (illness, doubtful), Mika Godts (doubtful). Diant Ramaj should start in goal; Josip Šutalo anchors the defence with Devyne Rensch providing the outlet. In attack, Steven Bergwijn is the main dribble threat, with Kasper Dolberg/Wout Weghorst the penalty-box target and Kenneth Taylor/Benjamin Tahirović knitting play in midfield.

Inter Milan: Doubts/outs — Lautaro Martínez (back pain, doubtful), Matteo Darmian (muscle, late September). Expect Yann Sommer behind a back three of Alessandro Bastoni, Francesco Acerbi and Manuel Akanji (new arrival). Midfield options are stacked — Nicolò Barella, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Davide Frattesi, İlkay Gündoğan. Up top, Marcus Thuram leads the line; if Lautaro doesn’t make it.

Ajax (last 10 competitive): 6–4–0. That’s 21 scored and 9 conceded — roughly 2.1 for and 0.9 against per game, with 3 clean sheets. They’re controlling games better than last season (xGA dipped towards 1.0) and finishing more clinically.

Inter (last 10 competitive): 4–3–3. 23 for, 13 against — around 2.3 for and 1.3 against. High-variance: three clean sheets, but when they open up, it really opens (see 4–3 in Turin). Set pieces remain a quiet strength.

Ajax: 2.0
Inter: 3.0

Ajax: 0.6
Inter: 2.0

Ajax: 40%
Inter: 33%

Ajax: 62%
Inter: 55%

Ajax: 6.4
Inter: 5.7

Ajax: 1.8
Inter: 2.0

Ajax: 1.0
Inter: 1.2

Ajax: 0.4
Inter: 0.4

Ajax: 0.3
Inter: 0.1

Ajax: 87%
Inter: 88%

Ajax: 15.6 (5.4 on target)
Inter: 14.3 (5.3 on target)

Ajax: 1.4
Inter: 1.3

Ajax: 19.2
Inter: 18.7

Ajax: 40% first half / 60% second half
Inter: 45% first half / 55% second half

Ajax: 60% under / 40% over
Inter: 33% under / 67% over

Ajax: 2.20
Inter: 1.00

Ajax at home (last 10): Strong control phases, quick one-twos around the box and improved game management once ahead. Clean sheets trending up compared to last spring.

Inter away (last 10): Usually proactive — they’ll press the first pass and attack with five lanes when settled. When the game turns chaotic, they both score and concede in bunches.

Ajax are consistently around 1.8 xG with ~1.0 xGA; Inter sit closer to 2.0 xG and 1.2 xGA. On expected chances, the gap is slim but tilts towards the Italians if they get their transitions right.

There’s a bit of history: the last competitive tie came in 2006 — Ajax 2–2 Inter in Amsterdam, then Inter 1–0 Ajax at San Siro. A 2–2 friendly in 2008 added little else. In short: not a frequent match-up, and the modern versions of both clubs are very different.

Steven Bergwijn (Ajax): The livewire on that left channel. If Ajax isolate him 1v1, he can drive inside to shoot or slip runners beyond.

Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter): The compass in build-up and a real threat from distance and dead balls. If he dictates tempo, Inter create high-quality looks for Thuram.

Ajax have momentum and the crowd, Inter have punch and experience. With Lautaro a doubt, the visitors may lean on midfield runners. It feels like one where both sides land blows but can’t land the knockout.

Prediction: Ajax 1–1 Inter Milan

Main pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes — Ajax BTTS hit in 7 of their last 10, Inter in 6 of 10, and both finish stronger after the break.

Value bet: Draw — stylistic stalemate vibes with Ajax’s control versus Inter’s counter threat; narrow margins and late equaliser potential.