Bayern Munich vs Chelsea | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 17th September 2025

It’s a heavyweight Champions League opener in Munich as Bayern Munich host Chelsea on 17 September 2025 (scheduled for 8pm UK). Bayern have started the season in full voice — 19 goals in three league and cup outings — while Chelsea arrive unbeaten and sharper at both ends than last spring.

Expect a crackling Allianz Arena and a noisy travelling end from London. Bayern are in ruthless early-season form; Chelsea have rebuilt smartly and carry genuine pace on the break.

Shape-wise, Bayern are most likely a 4-2-3-1 that becomes a 3-2-5 with the right-back tucking in and wingers stretching the pitch (Luis Díaz left, Michael Olise right). Chelsea have looked fluid in a 4-3-3/3-2-5 in possession: full-backs high, Cole Palmer knitting attacks with João Pedro as the central outlet and wide runners on the break.

• Bayern’s volume machine: averaging around 63% possession and a massive 21.3 shots (8.7 on target) per match, with ~2.8 xG. They love early diagonals to Díaz and quick slips into Harry Kane between centre-back and full-back.
• Chelsea’s tidy build and counters: around 62% possession, 87% pass completion, and 1.9 xG. They’ll happily recycle until Palmer or Enzo Fernández can feed runs from the wingers, then arrive with late box runners.
• Second-half surge risk: Bayern score 55% after the break; Chelsea 65%. If it’s tight at half-time, expect the tempo — and space — to rise quickly.

Bayern Munich: Out/doubts — Raphaël Guerreiro (muscle, out), Hiroki Ito (metatarsal, out), Jamal Musiala (hip, 2025 return), Alphonso Davies (cruciate, late Sept return window), Josip Stanišić (doubtful). Likely roles: Harry Kane leads the line; Luis Díaz drives the left channel; Michael Olise offers 1v1 threat on the right; Joshua Kimmich controls the middle; Jonathan Tah/Dayot Upamecano handle aerials.

Chelsea: Out/doubts — Dário Essugo (thigh surgery, out), Benoît Badiashile (doubtful), Roméo Lavia (doubtful), Levi Colwill (doubtful), Liam Delap (doubtful), Mykhaylo Mudryk (unavailable). Positives: Cole Palmer and Estêvão trained and are available. Expect João Pedro to spearhead the attack with Caicedo–Enzo setting the platform.

Bayern (last 10 competitive): 7–0–3, scoring 31 and conceding 14 (that’s about 3.1 for, 1.4 against per game). Three clean sheets in that run and 80% of games sailing past 2.5 goals — they’re relentless going forward, the press bites, and set-plays (0.7 per game) add a layer of threat.

Chelsea (last 10 competitive): 7–3–0, goals 26 for, 9 against (~2.6 for, 0.9 against). Four clean sheets and a nice habit of finishing strong (65% of goals after the break). They’ve added cutting edge without losing structure.

Bayern Munich: 4.67
Chelsea: 2.25

Bayern Munich: 1.67
Chelsea: 0.75

Bayern Munich: 40%
Chelsea: 50%

Bayern Munich: 63%
Chelsea: 62%

Bayern Munich: 6.7
Chelsea: 5.8

Bayern Munich: 2.8
Chelsea: 1.9

Bayern Munich: 0.5
Chelsea: 0.9

Bayern Munich: 0.7
Chelsea: 0.5

Bayern Munich: 0.3
Chelsea: 0.3

Bayern Munich: 88.5%
Chelsea: 87%

Bayern Munich: 21.3 (8.7 on target)
Chelsea: 14.5 (5.5 on target)

Bayern Munich: 1.3
Chelsea: 1.5

Bayern Munich: 22.7
Chelsea: 19.5

Bayern Munich: 45% first half / 55% second half
Chelsea: 35% first half / 65% second half

Bayern Munich: 20% under / 80% over
Chelsea: 50% under / 50% over

Bayern Munich: 3.00
Chelsea: 2.00

Bayern at home: The Allianz has already seen a 6–0 this term. They tend to pin teams back, flood the box with runners and rack up corners. Clean-sheet rate is improving, but they still play bold lines that invite the odd counter.

Chelsea away: Unbeaten stretch includes big away wins (5–1 at West Ham last season, 2–1 at Brighton). They’re comfortable without the ball for spells, then spring quickly through Sterling/Garnacho with Palmer picking passes.

Bayern are generating around 2.8 xG per game with minimal concessions (~0.5 xGA). Chelsea sit nearer 1.9 xG and 0.9 xGA. On paper there’s an expected chance gap for the hosts, but Chelsea’s pace on turnovers can bend the numbers on the night.

Recent history leans Bayern: the 2020 last-16 finished 7–1 on aggregate (0–3 at Stamford Bridge, 4–1 in Munich). Chelsea’s great moment came in 2012 — the final in Munich, won on penalties after a 1–1 draw. The 2013 Super Cup went Bayern’s way on pens following a 2–2. The rest is ancient history and friendlies — the balance lately sits with the German champions.

Harry Kane (Bayern): The focal point and finisher. Links neatly with Olise and Díaz, lethal from cut-backs and penalties, and drags centre-backs into awkward spots.

Cole Palmer (Chelsea): The creative hub between the lines. Finds early passes into João Pedro and releases wingers into space. Dead-ball delivery is a quiet edge.

Chelsea can hurt anyone in transition and their defensive numbers are trending up, but Bayern’s shot volume and set-piece threat at the Allianz are hard to fade. Expect swings both ways, then the hosts to land the bigger punches.

Prediction: Bayern Munich 2–1 Chelsea

Main pick: Harry Kane anytime scorer — Bayern’s xG load (2.8 p/m) flows through him, plus penalties and a steady stream of cut-backs from the flanks.