Benfica vs Qarabag | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 16th September 2025

Benfica open their Champions League group at Estádio da Luz against Azerbaijan’s Qarabag on 16 September 2025. Benfica are unbeaten across their last ten competitive matches and moved smoothly through the league month, even if the 1–1 with Santa Clara at the weekend cooled the buzz slightly. Around Lisbon, the election noise is loud — a candidate is talking up a blockbuster January move for Bernardo Silva — but the dressing room focus is firmly on Europe tonight.

Qarabag arrive confident: unbeaten domestically, through a tough qualifying path, and well-drilled away from home. Expect a raucous Luz — flags, noise, and relentless pressure — with Qarabag’s travelling support adding a sharp edge.

On the grass, Benfica usually go 4-2-3-1 morphing into a 4-3-3 when they want extra control, Vangelis Pavlidis leading the line and runners attacking cut-backs. Qarabag are compact in a 4-3-3, happy to sit in two narrow lines and spring Leandro Andrade or Olavio Juninho on the counter.

• Benfica’s ball dominance: around 62% average possession and roughly 16 shots per match. They repeatedly work the wide channel then cut back for Pavlidis or a late runner.
• Qarabag’s block and break: about 59% possession in the league, but in Europe they keep a tight mid-block and transition quickly — still generating near 15 shots a game.
• Dead-ball edge both ways: Benfica average 0.5 set-piece goals per game, Qarabag about 0.4. Both also concede very little from restarts, so delivery quality will be huge.

Benfica: Long-term outs are Alexander Bah and Manu Silva (both ACL). Bruma is out until December. Doubts: Dodi Lukébakio (foot), Amar Dedić (knee), centre-backs António Silva (leg) and Tomás Araújo (thigh), plus Andreas Schjelderup (muscle). Expect Vangelis Pavlidis to spearhead it, Georgiy Sudakov between the lines, and Nicolás Otamendi organising at the back.

Qarabag: Joni Montiel remains sidelined long-term; Kady Borges and Samy Mmaee are doubts. Expect Kevin Medina and Bahlul Mustafazada to anchor the defence, with Olavio Juninho and Leandro Andrade the main out-balls.

Benfica (last 10 competitive): W8 D2 L0, scoring 25 (2.5 per game) and conceding 6 (0.6 per game), with about half of those goals coming after the break. They’re tidy, ruthless when ahead, and rarely let the tempo drop.

Qarabag (last 10 competitive): W8 D2 L0, scoring 21 (2.1 per game) and conceding 4 (0.4 per game). The shape travels well; away record is excellent, particularly the control from set plays and counters.

Benfica: 2.4  |  Qarabag: 2.3

Benfica: 0.6  |  Qarabag: 0.3

Benfica: 40%  |  Qarabag: 67%

Benfica: 62%  |  Qarabag: 59%

Benfica: 6.5  |  Qarabag: 5.9

Benfica: 2.1  |  Qarabag: 1.9

Benfica: 1.0  |  Qarabag: 0.9

Benfica: 0.5  |  Qarabag: 0.4

Benfica: 0.2  |  Qarabag: 0.2

Benfica: 86%  |  Qarabag: 84%

Benfica: 16.2 (6.1 on target)  |  Qarabag: 14.8 (5.6 on target)

Benfica: 1.8  |  Qarabag: 1.9

Benfica: 23.0  |  Qarabag: 21.5

Benfica: 45% first half / 55% second half  |  Qarabag: 40% / 60%

Benfica: 35% under / 65% over  |  Qarabag: 40% under / 60% over

Benfica: 2.4  |  Qarabag: 2.5

Benfica at Estádio da Luz (last 10 home): Heavy on wins, strong second-half surges, and regular clean sheets. They pin teams back with wave after wave and are dangerous on corners and cut-backs.
Qarabag away (last 10 away): Unbeaten stretch includes European qualifiers; shape holds under pressure, they concede very little and steal territory from restarts. Counters are clean and direct.

Benfica typically create around 2.1 xG per game, Qarabag close behind at 1.9. With xGA around 1.0 and 0.9 respectively, expect Benfica to carry the volume but Qarabag to limit clear-cut looks — fine margins rather than a landslide.

The recent competitive chapter was the 2019/20 Europa League: Benfica edged a 3–2 in Lisbon, but Qarabag beat them 2–1 in Baku. Older friendlies (2010, 2005) went Benfica’s way and there was a draw in 2008. Overall: historical tilt to Benfica, yet Qarabag have shown they can land a punch when the tempo gets frantic.

Vangelis Pavlidis (Benfica): Sharp in the box, times near-post runs well and finishes first time. With Sudakov feeding angles, he’s the natural match-winner here.

Olavio Juninho (Qarabag): Works the line, attacks crosses and is ruthless on counters. If Qarabag get territory from set pieces, he’s their end product.

Qarabag are organised and stubborn, but Benfica’s weight of chances at the Luz usually tells. Expect the visitors to make Benfica work for openings and nick moments in transition, but the Portuguese side have more variety in the final third.

Prediction: Benfica 2–1 Qarabag

Main pick: Vangelis Pavlidis — Anytime Scorer — service volume plus his movement against a deep line makes this a strong angle.