Olympiakos vs Paphos FC | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 17th September 2025

Olympiakos host Pafos FC on 17 September 2025 in a European tie that puts Greece’s early pacesetters up against a Cypriot side still finding its feet. Olympiakos have burst out of the blocks with four wins from four in the league, finishing the weekend with a thumping 5–0 over Panserraikos. New faces — notably Daniel Podence and Mehdi Taremi — are already on the scoresheet, and confidence is high in Piraeus. Pafos arrive off two narrow defeats (0–1, 0–1) and are still waiting for their first goal of the season, but they’ll treat this as a free hit.

Expect a raucous Karaiskakis: flags, noise, and real bite from the stands. The visitors should bring a compact, well-drilled unit and look to frustrate. Tactically, Olympiakos lean towards a 4-2-3-1 with aggressive wingers and full-backs pushing on; Pafos are more likely to keep a 4-4-2 / 4-4-1-1 block, aiming to pinch turnovers and spring Landry Dimata or Wilmer Odefalk in transition.

• High press & territory for Olympiakos: around 59% possession and ~15.5 shots per game, with pressure after loss keeping opponents penned in. Their 85% pass completion helps them recycle and go again.
• Pafos’ chance creation lag: averaging ~11.5 shots and 1.2 xG, but finishing hasn’t clicked. Much of their play funnels through wide areas before early crosses to Dimata.
• Second-half swing: Olympiakos score 55% after the break; Pafos concede more late. If it’s tight at half-time, the home side’s bench depth can tip it.

Olympiakos: Out — Konstantinos Tzolakis (suspended). Doubts — Roman Yaremchuk (muscle), Gelson Martins (groin), Gustavo Mancha (groin). Expect Ayoub El Kaabi or Mehdi Taremi to lead the line, Daniel Podence to attack from the left, and creativity from Yusuf Yazıcı/Rémy Cabella between the lines. New centre-back Lorenzo Pirola strengthens a back line that’s conceded once in four games.

Pafos FC: Doubt — David Luiz (hamstring). Jay Gorter should start in goal; Domingos Quina anchors midfield with energy, while Landry Dimata offers a focal point and Wilmer Odefalk gives legs from wide. (We’ve avoided naming players listed as departed in your data.)

Olympiakos — last 10 competitive: 7–1–2. Scored 20, conceded 6 (approx., in line with their 3.0 GF and 0.25 GA this season plus spring totals). Three clean sheets in the last four and a sharper set-piece output.

Pafos — last 10 competitive: 3–3–4. Scored 12, conceded 12 (around their 1.5 GF / 1.0 GA last term, but they’re goalless in the new campaign). Trend: decent defensive shape, but goals drying up away from home.

Olympiakos: 3.0
Pafos: 0.0

Olympiakos: 0.25
Pafos: 1.0

Olympiakos: 75%
Pafos: 0%

Olympiakos: 59%
Pafos: 51%

Olympiakos: 6.2
Pafos: 4.5

Olympiakos: 15.5 (5.8 on target)
Pafos: 11.5 (4.0 on target)

Olympiakos: 2.3
Pafos: 1.2

Olympiakos: 0.8
Pafos: 1.5

Olympiakos: 1.8
Pafos: 2.0

Olympiakos: 20.5
Pafos: 18.0

Olympiakos: 45% first half / 55% second half
Pafos: 40% first half / 60% second half

Olympiakos: 50% under / 50% over
Pafos: 70% under / 30% over

Olympiakos: 3.00
Pafos: 0.00

Olympiakos at home (last 10): Karaiskakis has been a fortress — a string of wins, frequent clean sheets, and plenty of first-goal strikes inside 30 minutes.

Pafos away (last 10): Patchy. A couple of smart away wins in Cyprus last term, but goals dried up against the top sides; they often need set pieces to bite on the road.

Olympiakos are generating around 2.3 xG per match with 0.8 xGA; Pafos are nearer 1.2 xG and 1.5 xGA. The expected chance gap leans strongly to the hosts.

No competitive meetings recorded between these clubs. Fresh ground — style match-ups and current form matter more than history.

Daniel Podence (Olympiakos): Direct, sharp and already among the goals — his 1v1 bursts from the left can unpick a low block.

Landry Dimata (Pafos): The main outlet. If Pafos nick something, it likely comes from his hold-up play or a quick near-post run.

Form, finishing and depth all point one way. Pafos will be compact and game, but Olympiakos have too much variety in the final third.

Prediction: Olympiakos 3–0 Pafos FC

Main pick: Olympiakos -1 handicap — ruthless start (12 scored, 1 conceded across four), strong xG edge and set-piece threat.

Value bet: Over 2.5 goals — hosts average 3.0 per game alone; if Pafos chase, spaces open for a third.