Real Madrid vs Marseille | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 16th September 2025

European nights return to the Bernabéu as Real Madrid host Marseille on 16 September 2025. Madrid are perfect over their last ten competitive games and have eased into the new La Liga season with four wins from four. The big boost is the return of Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga to the squad after recent issues, while the loss of Antonio Rüdiger does leave a hole at centre-half. Marseille rock up buoyed by a 4–0 thumping of Lorient last weekend and some lively summer business, even if a couple of new faces are sidelined for this one.

Expect a full house and a crackling atmosphere in Chamartín. Tactically, Madrid usually shape into a 4-3-1-2 / 4-3-3 with Kylian Mbappé stretching and Vinícius Júnior attacking the inside-left channel, while the full-backs provide width. Marseille are comfortable in a 4-3-3: neat in build, aggressive runners wide, and happy to commit bodies when they smell a transition.

• Madrid’s territory game: around 57.5% possession early this season (c.60% last year) and ~19 shots a match. They funnel attacks down the left through Vinícius before slipping cut-backs to late runners.
• Marseille’s width and surge: averaging 61–62% possession and around 14–15 shots. Right-sided rotations free the far-post runner; set plays remain a steady source of pressure.
• Second-half bias: both teams skew their goals after the break (Madrid ~60%, OM ~55%), so subs and fresh legs could swing the last half-hour.

Real Madrid: Out — Antonio Rüdiger (hamstring, long-term), Ferland Mendy (unspecified). Doubts — Endrick (minor). Good news: Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga are available. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Daniel Carvajal give different looks at right-back, while Kylian Mbappé leads the line with Vinícius and Rodrygo buzzing off him.

Marseille: Out — Nayef Aguerd (concussion), Hamed Traoré (injury). Doubt — Amine Gouiri. Defensive options include Benjamin Pavard, Facundo Medina and Leonardo Balerdi; in attack, Mason Greenwood, Igor Paixão and the evergreen Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang provide punch.

Real Madrid (last 10 competitive): W10 D0 L0, scoring 25 (2.5 per game last season; 2.0 so far this term) and conceding 6 overall (~0.5 this season). Four clean sheets in the new campaign, ruthless in game management once ahead.

Marseille (last 10 competitive): W5 D1 L4, 9 scored in the new season (2.25 per game) and 1.0 conceded on average. When it clicks they pour forward, but away to elite sides they can leave gaps around the full-backs.

Real Madrid: 2.0  |  Marseille: 2.25

Real Madrid: 0.5  |  Marseille: 1.0

Real Madrid: 50%  |  Marseille: 25%

Real Madrid: 57.5%  |  Marseille: 61.75%

Real Madrid: 6.8  |  Marseille: 5.5

Real Madrid: 2.13  |  Marseille: 1.75

Real Madrid: 1.0  |  Marseille: 1.25

Real Madrid: 0.5  |  Marseille: 0.4

Real Madrid: 0.2  |  Marseille: 0.3

Real Madrid: 87.8%  |  Marseille: 85%

Real Madrid: 18.5 (7.0 on target)  |  Marseille: 14.0 (5.5 on target)

Real Madrid: 1.8  |  Marseille: 1.25

Real Madrid: 20.5  |  Marseille: 22.0

Real Madrid: 40% first half / 60% second half  |  Marseille: 45% / 55%

Real Madrid: 50% under / 50% over  |  Marseille: 25% under / 75% over

Real Madrid: 3.0  |  Marseille: 1.5

Real Madrid at the Bernabéu (last 10 home): Dominant, plenty of clean sheets, and a knack for the second-goal cushion just after half-time. Corners and cut-backs a constant theme.
Marseille away (last 10 away): Mixed. They create enough to score in most venues and will commit numbers in transition, but the full-back zones can be exposed when the wingers tuck in.

Madrid usually create around 2.1 xG to OM’s ~1.8. Defensively it’s tight enough that the visitors will get moments, but Madrid’s chance quality at home tends to tell over 90 minutes.

The last competitive meetings were the 2009/10 Champions League group stage — Madrid won 3–0 at the Bernabéu and 3–1 in Marseille. Earlier ties in the late 90s (UEFA Cup) also went Madrid’s way. In short: historical edge to Madrid, though this Marseille side carry more direct threat than those older editions.

Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid): Starts wide-to-central, brutal on the shoulder and clinical across the keeper. If Madrid find him early in behind, it’s a long night.

Mason Greenwood (Marseille): Clever movement off the right and a sharp left-foot finish. If Marseille break cleanly, he’s the one arriving on the cut-back.

Marseille won’t be timid — they’ll attack spaces when they see them — but Madrid’s control of territory plus the Mbappé/Vinícius threat should edge it. Expect OM to land a punch yet struggle to contain the waves.

Prediction: Real Madrid 4–1 Marseille

Main pick: Both Teams To Score — Madrid’s attacking volume v OM’s front-three pace gives this a healthy BTTS profile.

Value bet: Real Madrid to be winning Half Time – Full Time.