Embassy can strike Gold at Cheltenham

Galopin Des Champs is even money favourite at the time of writing to win his third Cheltenham Gold Cup. He is undoubtedly a great horse, but unless you like lumping on a horse at short odds he isn’t really a betting proposition.

My approach to this race was to see who I thought would run in the race firstly, then attempt to price the race up in my head based on who is left. It makes interesting reading.

Galopin Des Champs: With a lack of depth in the race he shouldn’t be a bigger price than evens unless he gets beat at the Dublin Racing festival before Cheltenham. Guess: evens

Fact To File: Undoubted potential, but looked a non stayer against Galopin last time and Cheltenham is even further. The Ryanair chase is a realistic option for him and it’s 50/50 which race he will go for. I’d actually wait and go to Aintree fresh with him, but who am I to tell JP what to do. Guess: non runner.

Gerri Colombe: Good on his day but has been put in his place a few times now. He’s only short in the betting due to the lack of top staying chasers this year. Also hasn’t been seen yet this season. Guess: 14/1 (10/1 currently)

Monty’s Star: His reputation is better than his performances on the track. Has looked a grade 2 horse all day long to me, but stranger things have happened. Guess: 9/1 (12/1 currently)

Banbridge: Stayed well to win a terrible King George. Far from certain to run at Cheltenham, never mind this race. Could go to the Ryanair, and is very ground dependent having missed the festival before purely due to conditions. Guess: NR

Grey Dawning: Even Dan Skelton must be admitting defeat now in trying to pass this horse off as a grade 1 three mile chaser. Looked good as a novice but limitations have been exposed. Guess: 25/1 (20/1 currently)

Corbett’s Cross: Another JP horse that isn’t a certain runner. Is talented on his day, but hasn’t shown he has a Gold Cup performance in him. Guess: 16/1 (20/1 currently)

Il Est Francais: Maybe the lure of the Gold Cup will prove too good to turn down, but I can’t see why connections would do that. He looked all about speed over Christmas and would be better off going for the Champion Chase, front running. Guess: NR

L’Homme Presse: Simply not good enough. Probably runs, but I’m happy to ignore him. Guess: 40/1 (25/1 currently)

Embassy Gardens: Gave the winner a head start of about half the track at Cheltenham last year. Is an out and out stayer. Won well a few weeks ago, but against a few more fancied stablemates. Guess 15/2 (33/1 currently)

No other horses matter in a race with not many entries in the first place.

So, if I’m right, what does that do to the betting.

Galopin De Champs evens, Embassy Gardens 15/2, Montys Star 9/1, Gerri Colombe 14/1, Corbetts Cross 16/1, Grey Dawning 25/1, L’Homme Presse 40/1, 50s bar.

So – I have priced Embassy Gardens as the second favourite, assuming he runs. The horse is 33/1 currently.

Obviously this is purely my opinion on the race, involving a lot of guesswork.

About Embassy Gardens

Embassy Gardens is a 9 year old bay gelding trained by Willie Mullins (also the trainer of Galopin Des Champs of course). He secured a decisive win in a grade three chase on New Years Day, over 2m 6f on heavy ground, where he easily defeated Monty’s Star by five lengths that could have been a lot more. Monty’s Star is currently third favourite for the Gold Cup, yet Embassy Gardens is 33/1.

He has course experience, having ran in the long distance race on the opening day last year – 3m 5f on heavy – where his jockey simply never put him into the race. The winner looked visually impressive, but I’d question the rides of the others.

To win a Gold Cup you need to jump well, and that seems to be Embassy Gardens all over. His jumping is exceptional. He also has shown an ability to perform over different trips and ground, whilst looking every inch a staying horse. The further he goes, the better he is.

A slight word of caution – Willie Mullins has come out and said he is considering a step back down in trip for the Ryanair for this horse. I just think that he will want to split his team and that Fact To File is more suited to the Ryanair than this lad. Surely he has to go for the big one after his last performance.

Embassy Gardens simply has to be backed at 33/1. If Galopin Des Champs underperforms on the day, or doesn’t turn up through injury or misfortune, our lad looks a massive player. I do think this horse is seriously overpriced in a race that could cut up.

I think that when we get near the time and Mullins sees the lack of competition in this race, he will decide to go for the Gold Cup, with Fact To File going to the Ryanair.

Selection, Embassy Gardens, 33/1, Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025.

******Not entered at Cheltenham! The joys of antepost betting…*******

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