Burnley vs Cardiff | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 23rd September 2025

Burnley host Cardiff City in the Carabao Cup on 23 September 2025, a proper test of depth and mentality. The hosts have had a tricky Premier League start but see this competition as a chance to build rhythm. The visitors are flying high near the top of League One and will fancy an upset against higher-tier opposition.

Turf Moor should be noisy, with the home crowd backing a response and a healthy away following urging on the underdogs. Expect the hosts to mix a compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 look with quick switches into the channels, while the visitors prefer a 4-3-3 that presses in bursts and looks to break at speed through wide runners. Rotations on both sides are likely, but the shape and habits remain the same: Burnley more direct and percentage-based, Cardiff a touch more possession-friendly for a third-tier side.

Burnley average 45% possession and around 7.5 shots per game this term, leaning on fast deliveries and set pieces (roughly 0.3 set-piece goals per match). The back line defends the box rather than stepping overly high, which keeps games tight but can invite pressure.

Cardiff sit closer to a 52% share of the ball, with about 12 shots per game and 5 corners, suggesting they’re comfortable building attacks rather than simply sitting in. The visitors’ 1.36 xG per match highlights frequent penalty-area entries, while 1.18 xGA hints at moments of exposure when their full-backs push on.

Both sides skew their goals to the second half (Burnley ~60%, Cardiff ~55%), so in-play momentum late on could be decisive.

Burnley (last 10 competitive): 4W-2D-4L. The hosts have mixed results, with clean sheets in roughly a quarter of recent matches and averaging 1.00 GF, 1.50 GA. They’ve edged a couple of tight cup ties at home, but league defeats have mostly come against top opposition.

Cardiff City (last 10 competitive): 7W-1D-2L. Strong, promotion-grade form, with 1.20 GF and 0.90 GA per match. The visitors have been solid at the back in League One, though a recent defeat highlighted some vulnerability on defensive restarts.

Trend-wise, Burnley rely on set plays and structured entries; Cardiff are more proactive territorially for a third-tier side, but can concede from dead balls.

Burnley: 1.00 per match • Cardiff City: 1.20 per match.

Burnley: 1.50 per match • Cardiff City: 0.90 per match.

Burnley: 45% • Cardiff City: 52%. The visitors may keep the ball slightly better, but the hosts are comfortable without it.

Burnley: 4.5 • Cardiff City: 5.0 per match.

Burnley: 2.0 • Cardiff City: 1.8 per match. Expect the midfield battle to be combative.

Burnley: 7.5 / 2.3 • Cardiff City: 12.0 / 3.5. The visitors pull the trigger more often; shot quality will be key at Turf Moor.

Burnley: 0.95 xG / 1.30 xGA • Cardiff City: 1.36 xG / 1.18 xGA.

Scored: Burnley 0.3 • Cardiff City 0.3 per match. Conceded: Burnley 0.4 • Cardiff City 0.3. Dead balls could swing it.

Pass completion — Burnley: 78% • Cardiff City: 76%. Tackles & interceptions (combined) — Burnley: 16.0 • Cardiff City: 15.5 per match.

Burnley: 40% of goals first half, 60% second. Cardiff City: 45% first, 55% second. Unders/overs — Burnley: 50% under / 50% over; Cardiff City: 55% under / 45% over.

Burnley: 0.75 • Cardiff City: 2.00. The visitors arrive in stronger points-earning form, albeit at a lower tier.

Burnley at home (recent): steady if unspectacular. A cup win and a league win have bookended a narrow home defeat and a draw, with the back line generally more secure at Turf Moor than on the road.

Cardiff City away (recent): resilient. A win at Exeter and at Salford, plus a draw at Stockport, offset by a single-goal cup loss. That’s roughly 2W-1D-1L across the latest four away trips, with tight margins in most games.

Cardiff consistently create around 1.36 xG, Burnley closer to 0.95, showing the visitors’ recent chance volume — but the hosts’ higher-tier opposition context matters and tends to depress raw xG for.

Across the last five meetings, Burnley are unbeaten: wins at Turf Moor and away, plus a couple of draws mixed in. The most recent league clashes featured a dominant home win for Burnley and a narrow away victory, with an overall aggregate heavily favouring the hosts.

This has all the ingredients for a tight cup tie. Cardiff’s form and xG profile suggest they’ll carry a threat, especially on transitions, but Turf Moor is a leveller. Calling a close one: 1–1 Burnley.

Main Pick: Cardiff to win on penalties.