Crystal Palace vs Millwall | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 16th September 2025

It’s a proper South London dust-up in the Carabao Cup third round as Crystal Palace host Millwall at Selhurst Park on 16 September 2025 (19:45 BST). Palace bring the feel-good factor of recent cup pedigree; Millwall roll in with bite, set-piece threat and a sold-out away end. Expect noise, needle and plenty of second balls flying about.

Tactically, Palace are comfy in a 4-2-3-1 that can look like a 4-3-3 with the full-backs advancing, and Jean-Philippe Mateta pinning centre-halves. Millwall are compact and direct in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2, springing Zian Flemming between the lines and slinging wide service for Tom Bradshaw. Derby energy guaranteed; control will be hard-earned.

• Palace build then punch: ~48% average possession and 82% pass completion last season. They progress centrally then hit early diagonals to the far-side runner. Corners arrive at roughly 4.5 per match.
• Millwall’s direct lanes: around 4.8 corners a game and a healthy 0.24 set-piece goals per match. Long throws, outswingers and near-post traffic will test Palace’s box defence.
• Late swing factor: both sides skew to second-half scoring (Palace 60% of goals after the break; Millwall 58%) — subs and restarts could decide it after 70’.

Crystal Palace: Out/major doubts — Ismaila Sarr (hamstring, late Sep), Adam Wharton (knock, late Sep). Newer faces available include Yeremy Pino and keeper Walter Benítez. Expect Mateta to lead the line and Marc Guéhi to manage Millwall’s aerial asks.

Millwall: Options feature Jake Cooper, Japhet Tanganga, Joe Bryan, and exciting wide talent Romain Esse. New signing Josh Coburn gives height if they flip to two up top. No fresh suspensions reported; Danny McNamara and George Saville add flexibility if it turns scrappy.

Crystal Palace (last 10 competitive): 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats. About 1.34 scored and 1.50 conceded per game; clean sheet roughly one in four (26%). They grow into matches and carry a late set-piece threat.

Millwall (last 10 competitive): 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats. Tighter output — 1.02 scored vs 1.22 conceded on average; clean sheets around 28%. The Lions lean on restarts and wide deliveries when open play gets clogged.

Crystal Palace: 1.34
Millwall: 1.02

Crystal Palace: 1.50
Millwall: 1.22

Crystal Palace: 26%
Millwall: 28%

Crystal Palace: 48%
Millwall: 47%

Crystal Palace: 4.5
Millwall: 4.8

Crystal Palace: 1.45
Millwall: 1.32

Crystal Palace: 0.25
Millwall: 0.24

Crystal Palace: 0.30
Millwall: 0.20

Crystal Palace: 82%
Millwall: 79%

Crystal Palace: 12.5 (4.2 on target)
Millwall: 11.8 (4.0 on target)

Crystal Palace: 2.2
Millwall: 2.3

Crystal Palace: 15.0 / 9.5
Millwall: 14.9 / 9.4

Crystal Palace: 40% first half / 60% second half
Millwall: 42% first half / 58% second half

Crystal Palace: 55% under / 45% over
Millwall: 55% under / 45% over

Crystal Palace: 1.39
Millwall: 1.43

Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park (last 10 home): Generally steady — a couple of strong results against top-half sides mixed with cagey draws. Goals trend just above one per game; clean sheets patchy but better with Guéhi fit. Dangerous late from corners and cut-backs.

Millwall away (last 10 away): Honest, organised and hard-running. They rarely blow teams away but nick points through structure and restarts. Expect a disciplined line and quick counters into the channels behind Palace’s full-backs.

Palace typically create the slightly better quality looks (~1.45 xG), while Millwall sit nearer ~1.32. Defensive profiles are close, so set pieces and transitions likely separate them rather than long spells of domination.

Recent edge to Palace: unbeaten across the last five meetings with Millwall, winning three of them (including the FA Cup tie at Selhurst in March 2025) and drawing two. The Lions haven’t taken a win in this fixture since 2013, but their set-piece record keeps them dangerous in one-goal games.

Mateta(Crystal Palace): a fantastic striker that could outclass this Championship level defence.

Zian Flemming (Millwall): Canny positions off the front, strikes cleanly from the edge and competes well in the air. If Millwall earn territory from throws and corners, he’s the second-ball magnet.

Millwall will make it awkward and the away end will drag them forward, but Palace have more craft in the final third and enough delivery from wide to force cracks. Spirited cup tie, decided by quality around the area.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 2–0 Millwall

Main pick: Palace to win

Value bet: Crystal Palace to win & Over 1.5 goals — aligns with Palace’s attacking edge (xG ~1.45) and derby tempo usually producing chances at both ends.