Swansea vs Nottingham Forest | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 16th September 2025

Cup night in South Wales as Swansea City host Nottingham Forest on 17 September 2025 — a tidy yardstick for where both are at. Swansea have put together a steady start in the Championship (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), while Forest’s new-look side has been hot-and-cold in the Premier League (one win from four, two heavy defeats). It’s a proper test for Forest’s fresh faces and a chance for the Swans to bloody the nose of a top-flight side.

Expect a lively Liberty — sorry, Swansea.com Stadium — with a noisy home end and an away following that always travels.

Shapes-wise, Swansea have been comfortable in a 4-3-3 that becomes 2-3-5 with the ball, leaning on patient build-up and late runners. Forest are leaning into a front-foot 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 vibe: aggressive wingers, quick switches, and lots of bodies joining transitions.

• Swansea’s ball control without fuss: averaging 56% possession and 84% pass completion, they’re happy to move you about then slide runners in after the break — 65% of Swans goals lately come in the second half.
• Forest’s wide threat vs space behind: despite 54% possession they’re only at 8.5 shots per game; when they click, it’s the wings (Hudson-Odoi/Ndoye/Bakwa) driving the volume. The flip side: a chunky 1.93 xGA suggests you can get at them if you play through pressure.
• Set-pieces a quiet swing area: Swans score and concede ~0.2 per game from dead balls; Forest concede 0.4. If Swansea load the box for Burgess/Cabango, there’s value here.

Swansea City: Out — Marko Stamenic (groin). Out — Ricardo Santos (knee, late September). Expect Ben Cabango and new signing Cameron Burgess to handle the big duels, with Josh Tymon providing width. In attack, Adam Idah can lead the line with support from Benson Manuel and one of Zeidane Inoussa / Ji-sung Eom. Midfield balance likely from Gonçalo Franco, Malick Yalcouyé and Jay Fulton.

Nottingham Forest: Out — Ola Aina (hamstring, Dec). Doubtful — Murillo (knock). Out — Nicolás Domínguez (meniscus, early Oct). There’s depth though: Neco Williams/Oleksandr Zinchenko at full-back, Douglas Luiz and Ibrahim Sangaré in the engine room, and a lively front mix from Omari Hutchinson, Dan Ndoye, Dilane Bakwa, and one of Arnaud Kalimuendo/Taiwo Awoniyi up top. Matz Sels or Angus Gunn between the posts.

Swansea — last 10 (W-D-L): 5-3-2. Goals: 15 for, 7 against (avg 1.5 & 0.7). 5 clean sheets. Trend: tight games, late surge merchants, and they don’t give much away — only 20% of their recent matches have gone over 2.5.

Nottingham Forest — last 10: 4-2-4. Goals: 13 for, 19 against (avg 1.3 & 1.9). 0 clean sheets. Trend: feast-or-famine — seven of ten over 2.5, with the wide players providing punch but the back door creaking.

Swansea: 1.0
Forest: 1.0

Swansea: 0.8
Forest: 2.0

Swansea: 40%
Forest: 0%

Swansea: 56%
Forest: 54%

Swansea: 4.6
Forest: 4.5

Swansea: 2.2
Forest: 1.0

Swansea: 10.2 (3.6 on target)
Forest: 8.5 (2.5 on target)

Swansea: 0.86
Forest: 0.95

Swansea: 0.68
Forest: 1.93

Swansea: 0.2
Forest: 0.3

Swansea: 0.2
Forest: 0.4

Swansea: 84%
Forest: 83%

Swansea: 19.4
Forest: 19.5

Swansea: 35% first half / 65% second half
Forest: 40% first half / 60% second half

Swansea: 80% under / 20% over
Forest: 25% under / 75% over

Swansea: 1.6
Forest: 1.0

Swansea at home (recent sample, last 6): 3W-2D-1L — results vs Hull (2-2), Coventry (1-0), Norwich (1-1), Millwall (0-1), Rotherham (1-0), Stoke (3-0). That’s roughly 1.33 GF and 0.67 GA per game with 3/6 clean sheets. They settle in, then grow after the break.

Forest away (recent sample, last 5): 2W-1D-2L — wins at Burnley (2-1) and Sheffield United (3-1), draw at Palace (1-1), defeats at Everton (2-0) and Arsenal (3-0). Around 1.2 GF, 1.6 GA, 0 clean sheets. Capable of bursts, but open when they chase.

Swansea are creating ~0.86 xG on average and keeping chances against down at ~0.68 xGA — controlled stuff. Forest sit around 0.95 xG but concede ~1.93 xGA, which points to a chance gap towards the hosts unless Forest tidy up their defensive spacing.

The last five between these two have swung both ways: a 5–1 FA Cup thumping for Swansea in Jan 2021, tight league wins for either side in 2019–20, plus a couple of cagey draws in South Wales. Recent cup ties favour goals when Forest open up, but league meetings tended to be margins.

Adam Idah (Swansea): Direct, strong final movements and a clean finisher. If Swansea get early service from Tymon/Key, Idah’s runs across the front post are a problem.

Omari Hutchinson (Forest): Dribbles, cuts, and chaos in the right half-space. If he isolates his man, Forest’s front line springs to life — he links nicely with Kalimuendo/Awoniyi.

Swansea’s structure and recent home control versus a Forest side still knitting together at the back makes this closer than the divisions suggest. Forest have the higher ceiling if the wingers catch fire, but the Swans’ compact shape and set-piece nudge could edge it.

Prediction: Swansea 1–1 Nottingham Forest (90’) — hosts to shade the big chances, Forest’s quality to find a leveller.

Main pick: Under 2.5 goals — Swansea’s matches are low-event (80% under), Forest create little volume away when pressed.

Value bet: Swansea +0.5 (Double Chance) — home form steady, Forest conceding 2.0 per game this term with no clean sheets in ten.