Free Daily Tips: 15th February
We have a busy Saturday in store with six meetings, including a Grade 2 each from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton. Let’s be honest, everyone is on the countdown to the Cheltenham Festival now, but backing a few winners to boost the Cheltenham kitty won’t hurt!
Ascot
1:15 Dubrovnik Harry. His best run came in a hot handicap hurdle around this time last year and the horse is very lightly raced considering his age. A return to hurdles should help.
1:50 The Changing Man. Hasn’t won in nine starts over fences and comes up against Jingko Blue and Lowrys Bar. The Tizzards have a strong record in the particular race though and his form will make him competitive against a pair that are over hyped.
2:25 Joyeux Machin. Looked better than the bare result last time out and although the recent form doesn’t look too inspiring he has a serious chance in this race under Harry Skelton.
3:00 Threeunderthrufive. The form of the Paul Nicholls yard is an obvious concern, but this Threeunderthrufive won the race last year and it was a fair reappearance run behind today’s favourite Victtorino at this course. That should set him up nicely for a repeat bid.
3:37 Blue Lord. Uninspiring this season but has a race like this in him. The longer trip could be the making of this horse at the age of 10 and questions can be asked of the others. Pic D’orhy is trained by Paul Nicholls who is out of form, the trip is too short for L’Homme Presse, Corbetts Cross might not run unless we get some rain and again the trip is too short.
4:10 Crest Of Fortune. Has to be the form pick after his recent second place efforts. Kingston Pride and First Confession are both dropping down in grade after being well beaten.
4:45 Just A Heartbeat. An outsider who represents last years winning yard. Her sole racecourse experience was when fourth over C&D and she will improve for the run.
Haydock
12:55 Minella Sixo. Gordon Elliott sends this one over from Ireland. Has never been out of the first three and looks like he will improve from a stamina test in a well run race.
1:28 Lavender Hill Mob. Looks a progressive horse over hurdles and I expect him to take some stopping here. I’m surprised that Marche D’aligre and Give It To Me Oj are ahead of this lad in the betting.
2:05 Whistleinthedark. It was his best effort for ages when he ran a week ago and now he’s back in the groove seemingly he can kick on.
2:40 Botox Has. Won this race last year and whilst he lost his form afterwards it was a step in the right direction last time in the Cleeve.
3:15 Yeah Man. Who is the most likely to stay this 3m4f trip was the first question I asked myself. Where better to look than a horse that won last years race. This eight year old has likely been targeted at a repeat bid.
3:50 Gold Cup Bailly. Wasn’t fancied at all on reappearance but outran his odds for a long way when finishing fourth. Todays race is easier and he will find hurdles easier to navigate than fences.
4:25 Famous Clermont. Looks the best hunter chaser in the field despite Jet Plane winning easily last time out. The favourite is My Drogo, last seen under rules when pulling up in a handicap hurdle a year ago. I don’t translate point form with rules form so Famous Clermont is an easy selection.
Wincanton
1:03 Diesel Line. Has been knocking on the door and the form of his latest race looks much better now than it did at the time.
1:36 Hansard. Three of these four runners have a Champion Hurdle entry. None of them are anywhere near the level required despite connections dreaming the dream. Not a hope. The most entertaining outcome is often the most likely, so I’m backing the one without a Champion Hurdle entry to win this just because it’s a bit funny. There isn’t much between the four runners on ability.
2:15 Givehimthehonour. This is a tough race to be confident about as there are question marks everywhere you look. I’m hoping this horse improves from his stable debut over Christmas and can make it third time lucky over fences.
2:50 The Sainted Canary. I’m very interested in this race and will without doubt be on The Sainted Canary as one of the bets of the day. He looks to be improving with racing and nothing else in the race has shown form that can get near him.
3:25 Risk De Pluie. Second in a race last time where the winner and third place have both won since. Looks an obvious pick.
4:00 Don Alvaro. I’m reluctant to go with a Nicholls horse, even at his beloved Wincanton, however Don Alvaro’s course form in handicap chases makes him the selection at what will be a nice price should he manage to get home in front.
4:35 Western Harmony. First time cheekpieces and handicap debut. No issues with weight, no excuses if beaten.
Gowran Park
1:20 San Hilario. Only eighth on hurdle debut but having only seen a racecourse twice I’d expect improvement for a yard enjoying a good run of form.
1:55 Effernock Fizz. This is sheer madness at 100/1, but having watched a lot of her races she can get some momentum going when front running and I can see a small chance of her slipping the field whilst Kitzbuhel and Sir Gerhard focus on tracking each other. There is a huge class difference between those two and Effernock Fizz obviously so if she doesn’t get a soft lead then it’s game over, but I’m chancing it anyway.
2:30 Crescent Moon. Good second last time under a gentle ride. This is a handicap hurdle with a lot of runners, but most of the field wouldn’t have a chance if they set off a minute before our selection. Has a nice weight and probably has Killaney King to beat.
3:05 Classic Getaway. Trappy little race. We know Saint Sam will lead, I’d expect Journey With Me to sit second with Classic Getaway last, and nothing to change until two from home. Classic Getaway can do Saint Sam for speed if close enough jumping the last.
3:42 What’s Up Darling. Will make a decent chaser and was running on towards the end nine days ago at Thurles. Should improve.
4:15 Cleatus Poolaw. Makes handicap chase debut and could get a Cheltenham entry with a win here.
4:50 Introversio. Better was expected on debut but allegedly was lame after the race. Has obviously got over whatever the problem was quickly and is turned out here 33 days later to make amends.
Newcastle
4:20 Saxon Star. Previous C&D experience and has first time cheekpieces.
4:55 Jujubella. Won here in January and can resume progress back on this surface.
5:25 Lord Capulet. Strong second in a C&D maiden and can go one better.
5:55 Queen Dinah. The weight advantage looks quite significant and she could have improved from six months off.
6:25 Tempus. Hasn’t won in 22 starts but this looks a good opportunity if jockey Paul Mulrennan can avoid traffic problems in a five runner field. He’d get himself boxed in and come with a late run in a walkover that Mulrennan.
6:55 Strong Power. Not a bad run over C&D last time and is overpriced here off the back of it.
7:25 Pallas Lord. 3 time course and distance winner who ran well to be second last time. Is in form.
Southwell
4:05 So Grateful. Hasn’t won in a long time but is a definite player against this grade of horses.
4:40 Ventura Dream. Gelded, handicap debut, steps up in trip. Isn’t out of this at a big price.
5:10 Crest Of Light. A key player returned to this course, has better form than the favourite Eva Dickson.
5:40 Gaiety Musical. Can get a quick 4 timer in with a claimer offsetting some weight.
6:10 Adversary. His run last time out makes him a leading contender here. Has a similar chance to Vocal Legend yet that one is odds on and Adversary is 4/1. I can’t make sense of it.
4:40 Midnight City. Good run at this course a month ago, now goes in blinkers for handicap debut. Should be favourite.
7:10 It’s Showtime. A respectable third place at this track a month ago. This four year old can improve again.
7:40 Mr Nugget. Only fourth at Kempton but looked the winner for a moment before getting swamped. Southwell should suit better and he really should be winning this.
Happy punting
Mav
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