Free Daily Tips: 29th January

Racing fans can take a breather today with just an evening card at Kempton and a shockingly bad all weather meeting at Dundalk. Still, a 5/2 winner pays the same no matter if it’s a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival or a Class 5 amateur jockeys handicap. Here are my thoughts on the low quality racing we have to work with today.

Kempton

5:00 Persian Phoenix, overnight odds 16/1. Has the best jockey and trainer combination in what looks like a lottery. First run since leaving Charlie Johnson and moving to Archie Watson. Needs to improve though.

5:30 Gennadius, overnight odds 4/1. The odds on favourite Opera Ballo was ridiculously expensive at £600k but similar types from the yard have taken a few runs to get their head in front and don’t tend to win on debut. Gennadius could be more forward on debut for a yard that is adept at winning with newcomers.

6:00 Sabugal, overnight odds 6/1. The odds on favourite Quai De Bethune will improve on its debut 3rd but will have to. It didn’t scream out as a certain next time out winner and the price of 4/7 is too short for the little he achieved. Jane Chapple-Hyam can ready a newcomer and at the prices I’ll be backing this No Nay Never gelding.

6:30 Pink Petunia, overnight odds 8/1. Promising second at massive odds last time out and the switch back to handicaps should suit. The presence of The Outlaw as an even money favourite will ensure a few go off at bigger odds than they should.

7:00 Midnights Dream, overnight odds 4/1. Roger Varian has booked Oisin Murphy on the horses return to action in the hope of shedding the maiden tag. The horse is reasonably well thought of and has been backed in previous races without getting the job done. Todays handicap looks full of horses a lot more exposed than our guy.

7:30 Camera Shy, overnight odds 4/1. Another Oisin Murphy mount. This horse has had three runs – a Newmarket maiden win, an Italian Group 3, and a third place at Chelmsford. No other horse in the race has shown anywhere near that ability. The question is can he run to form on handicap and course debut.

8:00 Mr Nugget, overnight odds 10/3. David Simcocks horse showed his wellbeing when running fourth just four days ago, left with too much to do but shaping with promise. The race favourite Cornish Storm was last seen in a Taunton novice hurdle nearly a year ago. I know who my money is on.

8:30 Sullivan Bay, overnight odds 5/2. A nightmare of a race for punters, but at least Luke Morris’s mount has shown consistency in recent starts. The other runners in the race are about as consistent as Manchester United Football Club.

Dundalk

2:17 Wild Embers, overnight odds 20/1. The race favourite – at 10/11 on at the time of writing – is Red Evolution, a horse that was 28/1 and finished last of 13 when last seen. Granted it was in a listed race but he returns without his head gear and may be worth taking on. That was the idea until I looked through the race and could only find one candidate – the newcomer Wild Embers. It’s a massive price on debut but has a good jockey up and I’m taking a chance simply due to the price.

2:47 Storm Eric, overnight odds 9/4. Consistent sort with a win and a second in its last two runs. His mark is creeping up but he still has a weight advantage over the favourite Eighty Eight even with the fav having a 7lb claimer aboard (who I have never heard of).

3:17 Waterford Flow, overnight odds 9/4. Joseph O’Brien’s horse ran fifth on debut at this course but it’s fair to say it received a tender ride. We go up in trip significantly today and I expect to see a lot of progress. The favourite in the race is Mister Adam, a horse who looked okay at the Curragh 3 months ago when 33/1 and nothing was expected. It looks a match and my money is on Waterford Flow.

3:47 San Salvador, overnight odds 1/3. I tried to find an angle to get it beat but couldn’t find one. A race to leave alone unless your punting strategy is to buy money.

4:17 Pink Oxalis, overnight odds 3/1. Terrible race. Pink Oxalis is the only one with half decent recent form and looked to improve in cheekpieces last time out.

4:47 Exquisite Acclaim. Overnight odds 3/1. Beat the race favourite Hightimeyouwon last time out over course and distance and I’m not sure that the weight difference will change the result this time. Hightimeyouwon was the favourite 12 days ago when our selection beat him and I’m going for a repeat. Deja Vu.

5:17 Velvet Skies, overnight odds 11/2. It has been twenty runs since this four year old last won a race, but it has dropped in the handicap back to its last winning mark. Ran well over course and distance last time out and the jockey takes off a huge 10lb more.

Happy punting

Mav

–

Results from the Free Daily Tips section do not count towards site P&L. The Daily Trio section has the long term profit angle covered as we can be more selective, but hopefully we can give you a fair share of the daily winners.

–

[etf id=947]