Free Daily Tips: 30th January
The racing today is average at best but still much better than the awful cards yesterday as we welcome Wincanton, Chelmsford and Southwell.
Wincanton
12:55 Chique Angel. Ran twice in bumpers, a year apart so I presume something went wrong. Showed reasonable form without being asked much and I expect a much better showing over hurdles today. The yard often sends out the winner of this race.
1:25 Diamond Dice. Top weight on chase debut here despite four of his five rivals being winners last time out. Hasn’t done a great deal but was always destined for chasing. There isn’t much between the others.
1:55 Kap Boy. Rubbish over hurdles so far but his trainer perseveres with novice hurdles instead of switching to handicaps. I hear he is fancied to go well today despite being up against a 4/7 shot (at the time of writing) in Don’t Mind If I Do. The favourite hasn’t done anything wrong and is probably priced fairly in truth but at the prices I’ll be following Kap Boy.
2:25 Moorland Rambler. A tough race with not much between a lot of them. Our fella has shown good form before but not for a while. First time cheekpieces may perk him up a bit and the ground should be ideal.
2:55 Ioupy Collonges. Looked beaten before finding a great deal close home to win last time out over C&D. Cheekpieces should help him concentrate and if they work he is thrown in.
3:25 Mr Glass. Useless race but there has to be a winner. The others are either in terrible form and/or returning from long absences. Mr Glass is the only conceivable bet here as he looks to have upside still in hunter chases.
3:55 Beauty In The Park. Having had a prior run counts for more than people realise in National hunt bumpers. Ours showed ability on debut despite running green and the yard won this last year. Experience can get her home in front for all I expect others in the race to improve past her once they get over hurdles.
4:25 Fresh As A Daisy. Another with prior experience up against newcomers in a national hunt bumper. Finished fifth on debut but was thought good enough to be pitched into a listed race there first time up.
Southwell
12:12 Rosenpur. Can go in again to follow up a win 17 days ago. Won’t need to improve to do so, just needs to run to the same level. Not a certainty with the grade of horses involved but I can’t oppose him.
12:42 Noble Victory. I prefer backing those with experience in flat maidens or national hunt bumpers, but this is an exception to the rule. Those with experience don’t set a good standard and have had quite a few chances to show something. Ours is related to some useful winners and wouldn’t need to be a world beater to win first time up.
1:12 Charlie’s Choice. Not an inspiring race by any stretch. The top three in the market aren’t ahead of this lad on form despite Caramay going for the hat trick. Ours is turned out quickly after a fair run 6 days ago and the decent price has tempted me in.
1:42 Rohaan. Wins this by a street if anywhere near his best, but hasn’t been at his best for a few years. The first time blinkers didn’t appear to do the trick last time out but he looked to be better than that as he wasn’t in the race until way too late. Sean Levey could find himself on the best horse pulling a tank as he picks his way through the field, or he could run into traffic again and lose my money. At 8/1 it’s a fair bet but not a certainty.
2:12 Dark Mystery. Has been knocking on the door recently and the presence of a few others should push ours to a good price. Fair Measure won last time to make it two wins from his last three starts but carries a penalty. Star Legend looks to be more of a hurdler having a prep although does have the ability to win a race like this.
2:42 Cloch Nua. Wins have come at Newcastle but is in good form. Van Zant won over C&D last time but I’d rate the Newcastle form higher. If Cloch Nua handles the Southwell surface I think it will win.
3:12 Inexplicable. Arrives in poor form but is capable on its day. This is a level weights classified with only the favourite Porfin carrying a penalty for its last time out win. Porfin is the obvious selection but a poor price – I can’t ignore the 25/1 about Inexplicable as we know he’s capable when in the mood.
3:42 Fistral Beach. Has been running poorly at big prices but seemed to show improvement last time out, running on well. Gets a significant weight pull from the others in this race despite running 3lb out of the weights.
4:12 Thanks Dad. A first time tongue strap seemed to bring improvement when still only a respectable fifth at Newcastle. The top two in the market look to be weighted to their ability, and I think there is still improvement in ours. He’s a big price here so gets my vote.
Chelmsford
5:30 Windsor Pass. Isn’t one to risk the mortgage on as he has failed to win in 29 runs to date, but really should be winning this. Ran second over C&D last time after the jockey gave him no chance of catching the winner. I can’t see the sniper (Luke Morris) making the same mistake.
6:00 Rescue Mission. This Kodiak filly is bred to be better than this and can strike on debut. The current race favourite Diamont Katie looks poor value at even money as I don’t rate the form of her debut fourth at Southwell, for all that she has an obvious chance if ours isn’t fully wound up for debut.
6:30 Lilkian. Frustrating horse but is better than its rivals here – if on a going day. He looked to be in good health when narrowly beaten at Lingfield and I’ll be following him to get his head in front for the first time in 20 starts.
7:00 Angle Land. I wouldn’t bet in this race if someone gave me a free £50 voucher, but for what it’s worth Angle Land has the best back form and would be the selection in what will be a trappy tactical race.
7:30 Kameko Spirit. Closely matched at the weights with the favourite Sunny Time. Sunny Time beat Kameko Spirit last time out by just over two lengths having dictated from the front. I’d imagine Kameko will be ridden a little closer to the pace this time as connections are wiser about what the fav will do. Kameko is 4lb better off. The betting should make them joint favourites, but as it stands Sunny Time is 4/5 on and ours is 10/3.
8:00 Aiming High. Difficult race that will depend on how the race is ran, we could run this five times and get five different winners. At a double figure price I’ll risk Aiming High in the hope they go quite fast, as ours will be best suited should they go hard up front early.
8:30 Cherry King. In great heart but can’t seem to buy a win having finished second on its last four starts in a row. I thought it was a good run last time and I wouldn’t be giving up and questioning his heart in a finish quite yet. Looking at the competition, I think he wins today.
Happy punting
Mav
–
Results from the Free Daily Tips section do not count towards site P&L. The Daily Trio section has the long term profit angle covered as we can be more selective, but hopefully we can give you a fair share of the daily winners.
–
[etf id=947]