Free Daily Tips: 8th February

Friday was a good day as we hit a few winners in Epinephrine (11/1), Lagonda (6/1), Counsel (2/1), Watermelon Sugar (3/1), Tyrrhenian Sea (5/2), and Neptune Legend (15/8).

The racing today (Saturday) looks much better, even with Nicky Henderson’s Arkle favourite Sir Gino being a non runner.

Newbury

1:15 Kientzheim. The price isn’t great but a repeat of his UK debut win will be more than good enough to take this.

1:50 An Tailliur. You have to go back a few years to see this horse in anything like good form but at massive odds I’ll be chancing him to run back to form.

2:25 Bravemansgame. This Paul Nicholls chaser has been written off by most and while he is obviously past his best he put in a very good show in the King George until weakening late on. Bravemansgame is unbeaten at Newbury – 3 wins from 3 races – and has a first time tongue tie today. Bravemansgame receives 6lb from the Venetia Williams horse Djelo who was put in his place by Protektorat last time out. Hitman could be the main danger but is as trustworthy as a Nigerian lottery win email notification,

3:00 Edwardstone. The task has got somewhat easier now that Sir Gino is a non runner. Alan King’s horse is now an eleven year old but is still capable of good form in what is weak pool of two mile chasers in England (Sir Gino / Jonbon aside). Edwardstone’s form chasing home Jonbon a few weeks ago is good enough to win today and he can follow up last years win in this race. The current favourite is Matata, but I’m not sold at all. Matata hasn’t looked any better than a decent front running handicapper to me and the form of the Windsor win wasn’t brilliant despite all the hype.

3:35 Favour And Fortune. Expected to improve a lot from his reappearance run at Ascot six weeks ago, and this Scottish Champion Hurdle winner is a nice price to win today in a big field.

4:10 Lord Of Thunder. Progressive profile and a great run when second in the Towton last time up. Steps up in trio which will help and I can’t see any negatives.

4:45 Act Of Innocence. Very promising racecourse introduction in a fair bumper at Punchestown and makes his debut for new connections. Should be up to the job, despite facing the unbeaten Sober Glory. Poor yard form is the only concern.

Warwick

12:55 Shareyourbiscuits. Was entered and fancied for a weaker race earlier this week but has to start somewhere. The others are more flat types and this one should make the best hurdler in time. Can win if the Skeltons are trying…..

1:30 Kart D’Estruval. Strongly fancied but beaten at odds of 1/3 on UK debut. Sent straight for wind surgery and will be extremely interesting over the next few months if that has done the trick.

2:05 Rubaud. Takes on a heavy odds on favourite in L’eau Du Sud who is as low as 10/1 for the Arkle at Cheltenham. It’s all hype, L’eau Du Sud has no chance at Cheltenham. None whatsoever. L’eau Du Sud does deserve to be favourite for this race however but there isn’t as much between him and Rubaud as the betting suggests. Rubaud took on Ballyburn and Sir Gino on his chasing debut last time out and L’eau Du Sud would be lapped by either of those two.

2:40 Gala Marceau. Should win this, and win this easily. Was last seen chasing home Lossiemouth when last seen in a Grade 1 over in Ireland. There is nothing here who could get near her assuming she is fit. West Balboa seems to be regressing and the other runners may as well be 1,000,000/1.

3:15 Fugitif. Has to be strongly fancied here. Has held a good standard of form and this step into veterans company is essentially a drop in class. Also engaged at Newbury though so may be a non runner.

3:48 No Ordinary Joe. His run in last years Martin Pipe reads well for all that he lost his way afterwards. Has a 5lb claimer taking weight off.

4:23 Strong Run. Has looked above average in two runs to date. Her third in a listed race at Cheltenham last time is good form. Strong Run is a bigger price in the early betting than I would expect, I’d have this as a 4/6 shot.

Naas

1:20 Murcia. Made its stable debut for Willie Mullins in a hot race when running behind Hello Neighbour. The betting at the time of writing has her as the third or fourth favourite in this race which is unbelievable. I’d mark her up around 6/4.

1:55 Coral River. Won a maiden at Gowran last time and steps up in trip slightly here. Has Koori Star to beat.

2:30 Autoportrait. This horse caught me eye as a sure fire future winner when second at Cork last time when finishing the race off well. Cheekpieces go back on today.

3:05 Well Dressed. Well treated under a penalty against modest opposition.

3:40 Eternal Echo. Gordon Elliott also runs the odds on race favourite Apples Jane, prodigy of the excellent mare Apples Jade who ran for the same yard. It would be just like Gordon Elliott to spoil his own party though so I’m going for his other one Eternal Echo.

4:15 Dinoblue. Allegorie De Vassy looked outstanding at Fairyhouse last time and a repeat would certainly win this today, but she isn’t the most reliable of horses and Naas will suit less than Fairyhouse. Dinoblue needs to come back to form but Cheltenham is close and I expect her to. Her run behind Solness looks better now than it did at the time.

4:50 Big Interest. The new kid on the block taking on the defending champion, again. Big Interest beat Its On The Line last time out comfortably and I’m not sure why it would be different this time unless It’s On The Line was nowhere near peak fitness.

Newcastle

3:55 Plage De Havre. Good run at Southwell when first past the post before being demoted. A repeat would do the trick.

4:28 Charlie’s Choice. Won comfortably last time out and I’m not backing against him in his current mood.

5:00 Lezardrieux. A chance is taken on this one’s fitness as he has been off the track six months. If fit – he beats Pockley.

5:30 Golden Thorn. Three average runs qualify her for handicaps and the initial mark looks very fair / borderline lenient.

6:00: Warrant Holder. Someone may own a 50/1 antepost Epsom Derby bet on this one I hear. Wishful thinking but every horse has to start somewhere. Frankel colt. Related to winners such as 1½m winner High Order, 1¼m winner Portfolio and 1¼m winner Educator. Owned by The King.

6:30 Forest Gunner. Heavily backed last time but didn’t land the spoils. Steps into handicap company now and has been found a rubbish race.

7:00 Bella Kopella. Would have won last time had she not ran into traffic. Four time course winner.

Uttoxeter

1:03 Histrionic. Likely to improve from her run at Warwick and can serve it up to the odds-on shot Newton Tornado.

1:38 D Day Arvalenreeva. Arguably the best of these on the flat and looks certain to stay this trip over hurdles. If the horse can jump okay then the price difference between Surrey Belle (odds on) and D Day Arvalenreeva (16/1 overnight) would look a bit silly.

2:13 Lucky Lugger. Ran behind Flamelco last time but should be more of a match this time as gets some weight back.

2:48 Brave Kingdom. Lightly raced for a nine year old, Brave Kingdom looked to have a few wins in him when third at Newbury on his reappearance.

3:23 Don’t Tell Su. I was looking forward to this horse making a chase debut after seeing it entered up but connections decide to keep to hurdles for now at least. Has a fair chance in a winnable race.

3:58 Elle Est Beau. Holding form very well over hurdles and this looks ideal conditions for her chasing debut.

4:33 Red Cadillac. I’m hoping Danny Mcmenamin plays a game of ‘catch me if you can’ as they go around the bend for home as I think this horse will keep finding for pressure.

Wolverhampton

4:40 Yeoman. I now have the YMCA song in my head after typing that… great. Anyway, the horse has a good chance of adding to his previous C&D wins in a first time visor.

5:15 Hiya Maite. A good third at Southwell last time. Tongue tie goes back on today and it’s a weak race.

5:45 Tasmanian Legend. Second at this track last time out, getting going too late. Assuming the jockey times things a bit better he should win.

6:15 Daring Flight. Showed promise at Kempton when under gentle handling. Race favourite The Watcher carries a 7lb penalty.

6:45 Thanks Dad. Unsure if he will turn up just two days after his third at Southwell but if he does then he has a fair chance of getting a win.

7:15 Brinton. Finished behind today’s favourite Headshot on its last run but wasn’t ridden to good effect, staying on late to close the gap. With a more intelligent ride today the horse is capable of turning the form around.

7:45 Aspire To Glory. Hasn’t won in sixteen starts but this is as good a chance as he is going to get.

8:15 Without Compromise. This horse has been in my tracker as I waited for a step up in trip. We get that tonight and it looks like being a good price also.

Happy punting

Mav