Athletic Bilbao vs Girona | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 23rd September 2025

🗞️ Introduction

San Mamés stages an intriguing clash as Athletic Bilbao welcome Girona on 23 September 2025. The hosts are pushing for the European spots and come into this one with confidence after edging Valencia at home. The visitors, meanwhile, are bottom of the table after a string of defeats and badly need points to stop the rot.

The crowd in Bilbao is always one of the most intense in La Liga, and the atmosphere should be raucous against a side under pressure. Bilbao are expected to line up in a structured 4-2-3-1, pressing high and leaning on their strength at set-pieces, while Girona will likely shape into a 4-3-3, sitting deeper and hoping to break quickly on the counter.

🔑 Tactical Trends

Bilbao average 52% possession this season and are sharp in transition, hitting 12.4 shots per match with over four on target. They also funnel a lot through wide areas, relying on overlaps and early deliveries. Their pressing intensity is high, with 14 tackles and 10 interceptions per game, forcing opponents into errors.

Girona actually enjoy more of the ball on paper with 55% possession, but they have struggled badly with defensive positioning, conceding over two goals per game. Their passing completion sits at 84%, showing they can hold the ball, but lapses at the back undo their work. Expect Girona to play through midfield triangles but drop deep once pressure builds.

📋 Form

Across their last ten matches, Bilbao have taken six wins, two draws, and two defeats, scoring 16 and conceding 9. At home they’ve been strong, and their clean sheet rate (40%) highlights defensive resilience.

Girona’s form tells a different story: just one win, three draws, and six defeats in their last ten. They’ve hit only 8 goals while letting in 18. They’ve lost four of their five league matches this season, conceding 11, which underlines the problems facing them coming into San Mamés.

📊 Average Goals

Bilbao score 1.6 per match and concede 1.0. Girona average just 0.8 scored but 2.2 conceded, a gulf that’s clear when comparing recent records.

📊 Clean Sheets

Bilbao have managed two clean sheets in five games this season. Girona haven’t kept a single clean sheet so far, leaking in every match.

📊 Possession

Bilbao average 52% while Girona see slightly more of the ball with 55%. Despite this, Girona struggle to turn possession into goals or defensive stability.

📊 Corners

Bilbao win around five corners per match, Girona 4.8. Both sides use width but Bilbao tend to be more efficient in creating dangerous deliveries.

📊 Discipline

The hosts pick up 1.8 yellows on average, a sign of their aggressive press. Girona see 1.6 yellows, showing they also commit fouls under pressure.

📊 Shots

Bilbao fire off 12.4 shots per game (4.2 on target). Girona attempt 10 with 3 on target, highlighting their lower attacking threat.

🏟️ Home vs Away Form

Bilbao are strong at San Mamés, unbeaten across their last six home meetings with Girona and winning regularly in front of their fans. Girona, meanwhile, have lost heavily on the road, including conceding four at Levante recently.

⚔️ Attack vs Defence

🤝 BTTS Likelihood

📊 Expected Goals (xG) Match-up

Bilbao’s xG numbers suggest they create higher quality chances and concede fewer than Girona, underlining the expected gap on Tuesday night.

⚖️ Head-to-Head

The last five meetings show Bilbao with three wins, Girona one, and one draw. Bilbao won 2-0 at home in May 2025, drew 1-1 away in January, and also took three points at San Mamés in December 2023. Girona’s only recent victory was a 4-3 thriller at Montilivi in April 2024.

🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction

Given Girona’s poor defensive record and Bilbao’s strong home form, a 2-0 home win looks the most likely outcome. The hosts should have enough cutting edge to see this one through, while Girona may again struggle to keep goals out.

💡 Betting Tips

Main Pick: Back Bilbao to win at home. Their form, set-piece threat, and Girona’s leaky defence point strongly towards three points for the hosts.

Value Bet: Bilbao to win to nil — Girona’s lack of cutting edge makes this appealing given their failure to score in two of their last three outings.

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