Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 20th September 2025

🗞️ Introduction

Valencia welcome Athletic Bilbao to Mestalla on Saturday 20 September 2025 in a La Liga clash that feels important for both sides. Valencia are coming off a heavy defeat against Barcelona, which has raised questions about their defensive structure, while Athletic Bilbao arrive with strong league form despite a midweek European setback. The home crowd will demand a response, while the travelling fans from Bilbao always make their presence felt, ensuring a lively atmosphere. Tactically, Valencia tend to sit in a compact shape and look to break quickly, whereas Bilbao press higher and rely on structured possession, so this could turn into a battle of styles.

🔑 Tactical Trends

Bilbao’s pressing numbers stand out, with their opponents averaging fewer passes per defensive action compared to the league average, showing how they disrupt build-up play early. Valencia, by contrast, concede more possession but focus on efficient transitions, with around 46% average possession and an emphasis on second-half goals. Bilbao also use width well, hitting almost five corners a match, while Valencia rely more on set-piece routines to nick results.

📋 Form

Valencia’s last 10 matches show mixed fortunes: 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, scoring 14 and conceding 16. They’ve kept only 2 clean sheets in that run, with recent form hit by a poor away display in Barcelona. Bilbao, meanwhile, boast 6 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 defeat in their last 10. They’ve scored 15 and let in only 10, with half of those games ending in clean sheets. The visitors’ form line of 4 wins from the last 5 makes them the more reliable side heading into this contest.

📊 Average Goals Scored per Game

Valencia: 1.4 | Athletic Bilbao: 1.5

📊 Average Goals Conceded per Game

Valencia: 1.6 | Athletic Bilbao: 1.0

📊 Clean Sheet Percentage

Valencia: 25% | Athletic Bilbao: 50%

📊 Average Possession

Valencia: 46% | Athletic Bilbao: 49%

📊 Average Corners per Game

Valencia: 5.5 | Athletic Bilbao: 4.7

📊 Average Yellow Cards per Game

Valencia: 2.5 | Athletic Bilbao: 2.3

📊 Average Shots per Game

Valencia: 11.5 total (4.2 on target) | Athletic Bilbao: 11.0 total (4.0 on target)

📊 Expected Goals (xG) per Game

Valencia: 1.5 for, 1.8 against | Athletic Bilbao: 1.2 for, 1.5 against

📊 Set Piece Goals

Valencia: 0.3 scored, 0.4 conceded | Athletic Bilbao: 0.3 scored, 0.3 conceded

📊 Pass Completion Rate

Valencia: 83% | Athletic Bilbao: 81%

📊 Tackles & Interceptions

Valencia: 14.5 per game | Athletic Bilbao: 14.0 per game

📊 Goal Timing

Valencia: 40% first half, 60% second half | Athletic Bilbao: 45% first half, 55% second half

📊 Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Valencia: Over 2.5 in 60% | Athletic Bilbao: Over 2.5 in 50%

📊 Points per Game

Valencia: 1.4 | Athletic Bilbao: 2.25

🏟️ Home vs Away Form

Valencia’s home record has been inconsistent, with a mix of narrow wins and frustrating draws, averaging around 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game at Mestalla. Athletic Bilbao’s away form is strong, with victories at Betis and Celta showing they travel well, averaging over 1.5 points per game on the road. Their defensive solidity away from San Mamés makes them tough to break down.

⚔️ Attack vs Defence

BTTS Likelihood

Expected Goals (xG) Match-up

⚖️ Head-to-Head

The last five meetings have been tight affairs. Bilbao edged Valencia 1-0 both home and away earlier this year, while Valencia took a narrow 1-0 win back in January 2024. A 2-2 draw in 2023 showed how competitive this fixture remains. Overall, Bilbao have the upper hand in recent results, but the contests are usually settled by fine margins.

🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction

This feels set up for a close match, with Valencia eager to bounce back but Bilbao carrying the better overall form. Expect chances at both ends, but the visitors’ stronger defensive numbers might prove decisive. Prediction: 1-1 draw.

💡 Betting Tips

Main Pick: Both Teams To Score — both sides have shown they can find the net and concede regularly, so BTTS looks the value play.

Value Bet: Draw — with Bilbao’s strong form but Valencia’s resilience at home, the stalemate offers a good price.

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