Marseille vs PSG | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 22nd September 2025

It’s Le Classique at the Vélodrome on 22 September 2025 as Marseille host PSG. PSG arrive top of the table with four wins from four and a 4–0 UCL battering of Atalanta just days ago. Marseille’s start has been mixed (two wins, two defeats) but they thumped Strasbourg 5–0 in their last league outing here, so confidence in attack is high.

Expect the Vélodrome to be bouncing — one of the fiercest atmospheres in France. The away end will be packed but outnumbered, and noise will play its part. Marseille usually press high in a 4-2-3-1, looking to force errors and feed their wide players early. PSG prefer control with a 4-3-3, pushing full-backs high and letting their wingers isolate defenders — their 65% possession average shows they dictate most matches.

• Marseille’s front-foot style: They average 63% possession and 13.8 shots per match, but the defensive numbers (1.0 conceded per game and 0.50 set-piece goals shipped) show they can be got at.
• PSG’s control and depth: Around 16.5 shots and 2.11 xG per game, with 92% pass completion. Their full-backs create overloads and allow the wide forwards to cut inside.
• Late pressure: PSG score 60% of their goals after half-time, while Marseille concede more in the second half. If it’s tight at the break, PSG’s depth tends to tilt it late.

Marseille: Geoffrey Kondogbia is out (calf). Otherwise a full squad is available, with new boys like Matt O’Riley and Mason Greenwood adding quality. Aubameyang and Gouiri are battling for the central striker role, with Pavard and Aguerd strengthening the backline.

PSG: A cluster of attacking absences — Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, and João Neves are out, while Bradley Barcola is a doubt. Kvaratskhelia and Ramos are expected to lead the line, with Hakimi and Nuno Mendes pushing on from full-back.

Marseille (last 10 competitive): 6–1–3. They’ve scored 9 in four league games (2.25 per match) but only kept one clean sheet. Home wins over Strasbourg and Toulouse show what they can do when the press clicks.

PSG (last 10 competitive): 10–0–0. A perfect run including league and Europe. They’re scoring 2.5 per game and conceding less than one. They’ve kept five clean sheets across the run, making them tough to break down.

Marseille: 2.25
PSG: 2.50

Marseille: 1.00
PSG: 0.75

Marseille: 25%
PSG: 50%

Marseille: 63%
PSG: 65%

Marseille: 5.5
PSG: 6.0

Marseille: 2.25
PSG: 1.50

Marseille: 13.8 / 4.8
PSG: 16.5 / 6.3

Marseille: 1.73
PSG: 2.11

Marseille: 1.25
PSG: 0.80

Marseille: 0.25
PSG: 0.50

Marseille: 0.50
PSG: 0.38

Marseille: 90.4%
PSG: 92%

Marseille: 14.5 / 9.0
PSG: 12.0 / 8.0

Marseille: 45% first half / 55% second half
PSG: 40% / 60%

Marseille: 50% over
PSG: 75% over

Marseille: 1.50
PSG: 3.00

Marseille at home (last 10): A strong record with clean wins against Strasbourg and Lens. They’re usually quicker starters at home, feeding off the noise.

PSG away (last 10): Nine wins and a draw, usually by more than one goal. They control matches, keep the ball and kill games late on the road.

PSG are averaging ~2.1 xG and keeping it under 1.0 xGA. Marseille are closer to 1.7 xG but allow 1.25 xGA. On paper, PSG create and concede slightly better chances.

PSG have dominated recent Classiques: 3–1 at the Parc in March 2025, 3–0 at the Vélodrome in October 2024, and 2–0 at the Parc in April 2024. Marseille’s last big win was 3–0 at home in October 2023. Over the last five, PSG have won four, keeping three clean sheets in that run.

Mason Greenwood (Marseille): Three assists already this season and looking sharp off the right. His ability to slip balls between lines could be key if Marseille want to hurt PSG.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG): Fresh from starring in Europe. His dribbling and one-on-one threat make him PSG’s main creative spark in Dembélé’s absence.

Marseille’s home crowd and attacking output will give them a shot, but PSG’s balance and quality in wide areas usually tell in this fixture. Expect Marseille to land punches, but PSG’s depth should prove decisive.

Prediction: Marseille 1–2 PSG

Main pick: PSG to win — unbeaten in 10, better defensive numbers and strong record in this fixture.

Value bet: Both Teams To Score — Marseille create plenty at home (1.73 xG) and PSG’s matches skew over (75% over 2.5), so there’s room for both to land a punch.