Marseille vs Toulouse | Ligue 1 Preview & Betting Tips | 29 Nov 2025

Marseille are in the hunt for the top three and the Vélodrome has become a fortress again this season. Toulouse have been picking up points quietly and will fancy causing an upset. Expect a white-hot atmosphere with the famous Marseille end in full voice and a decent away following from the Pink City.

Marseille usually line up in a 4-3-3 that presses high and looks to dominate possession. Toulouse go with a compact 4-2-3-1 and love to sit in before hitting on the break. No major fresh injury concerns reported.

Marseille are controlling games with 58% possession and creating 1.65 xG per match while only allowing 1.1 – they’re tough to break down at the Vélodrome. Toulouse sit deeper, absorb pressure and try to nick goals on the counter, but they’ve been vulnerable away from home.

Set pieces could be crucial – Marseille score 0.4 per game from dead balls, Toulouse concede 0.3.

Marseille over the last ten: six wins, two draws, two defeats – 17 scored, 9 conceded, four clean sheets. Very strong at home and hard to score against.

Toulouse: four wins, three draws, three defeats – 11 scored, 12 conceded, three clean sheets. Solid enough but struggling to turn draws into wins on the road.

Marseille at home (last 10): 80% win rate, averaging 2.3 scored and 0.8 conceded – the Vélodrome is rocking.

Toulouse away (last 10): only 20% wins, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.5 conceded – they struggle on their travels.

Marseille are creating more and conceding far less – the gap in quality is clear.

Marseille have won three of the last five meetings, including a 3-2 thriller here last April and a 3-1 win in Toulouse in August 2024. The other two ended in draws – 2-2 at the Vélodrome in 2024 and 2-1 to Toulouse in December 2023.

Marseille are flying at the Vélodrome, scoring regularly and keeping things tight at the back. Toulouse have been stubborn but lack the firepower to hurt this Marseille side on current form.

Prediction: Marseille 2-0 Toulouse

Main pick: Marseille -1 handicap – they’ve covered this in four of their last six home wins.

Value angle: Marseille to win to nil – four clean sheets in ten and Toulouse have failed to score in four of their last seven away games.

Double chance: Marseille or draw – Marseille are unbeaten in their last eight at home.

Over/under 2.5 goals: Under – Marseille home games have been tight lately.

Half-time/full-time: Draw/Marseille – Marseille often grow into home games and finish strongly.

Over/under 9.5 corners: Over – combined average 11.2 corners per game.

Yellow cards prediction: Around 3-4 bookings – leaning under 3.5 cards.

Here are the key numbers behind tonight’s clash – perfect for building those juicy bet builders. Good luck!

Marseille are finding the net regularly at home; Toulouse struggle for goals on the road.

Marseille have been rock-solid defensively – just 0.9 conceded per game.

Marseille have kept four clean sheets in ten – very tough to score against right now.

Marseille pepper the goal with over 13 shots a game.

Marseille average 5 on target – plenty of work for the Toulouse keeper.

Marseille dominate the ball at the Vélodrome.

Combined average over 11 corners – great for corner bet builders.

Marseille are creating far higher-quality chances.

Marseille restrict opponents to just 1.1 xG – very stingy.

Marseille love a set-piece goal – watch the dead-ball markets.

Both sides are fairly solid from dead balls.

Marseille keep the ball beautifully at home.

Both sides score slightly more after the break – second-half goals look likely.