Aston Villa vs Burnley | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 5 October 2025
Aston Villa are riding high after back-to-back Europa League wins, but their Premier League form has been a bit stop-start, with just one win from five. Still, they’re unbeaten at home in the league this season, and Villa Park is a fortress. Burnley, fresh off a Championship title, are scrapping for survival, sitting bottom with one win from six. Their recent 5-1 hammering at Man City showed their vulnerabilities, but a draw at Forest hints at fight. Villa will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1, looking to dominate the ball around 51% and stretch play wide. Burnley’s 4-4-2 will focus on staying compact, soaking pressure, and springing counters. It’s a classic clash of a side chasing European spots against one battling the drop.
- Possession battle: Villa hold around 51% possession on average, often building through central channels, while Burnley’s 35.9% sees them cede the ball and rely on quick transitions.
- Defensive structure: Burnley’s low block and high pressing in bursts forces 1.92 tackles per game, but Villa’s 15.5 tackles and 9.2 interceptions show they can disrupt counters effectively.
- Set-piece threat: Villa score 0.4 set-piece goals per game; Burnley’s set-piece defending data is sparse, but recent own goals suggest vulnerability.
Aston Villa last 10: 4–4–2, goals 12 for / 8 against, clean sheets 4. Villa’s been solid rather than spectacular in the league, with draws against top sides showing resilience, but they’ve found their scoring boots in Europe.
Burnley last 10: 2–1–5, goals 8 for / 13 against, clean sheets 1. Burnley’s had a tough return to the Premier League, with heavy losses to big sides, but a home win and draw show they can grind out results.
Villa’s attack has been quiet in the league (0.43 per game), but their 2024/25 form boosts this to a healthier 1.6. Burnley’s steady 1.0 shows they can nick goals, especially at home, but struggle for consistency away.
Villa’s defence is tidy, leaking just 0.8 in recent league games, bolstered by strong home form. Burnley’s 1.63 reflects tough fixtures, with heavy losses inflating the average.
Villa’s been rock-solid at times, keeping opponents out in 4 of 10 games. Burnley’s lone clean sheet shows their defensive struggles against top-tier attacks.
Villa’s comfortable with the ball, controlling games at home, while Burnley’s low possession suits their counter-attacking style but leaves them exposed against stronger sides.
Villa’s games see plenty of corners, averaging 9.8 total, with their attacking play earning set-pieces. Burnley’s data is limited, but expect around 8–10 corners in this game based on Villa’s trends and Burnley’s defensive approach.
Villa’s physicality leads to a few bookings, while Burnley’s disciplined setup keeps cards low. Expect 2–3 yellows in a competitive but not overly heated match.
Villa’s shot volume is decent but less clinical in the league this season. Burnley’s estimated 8.4 shots reflect a lower threat, likely reduced further away from home.
Villa’s xG shows they create decent chances but face similar quality against. Burnley’s low xG for and high xG against highlight their struggle to compete with stronger sides.
Villa’s set-piece prowess is a weapon, scoring regularly from dead balls. Burnley’s lack of data hides their threat, but recent games suggest defensive lapses at corners.
Villa’s crisp passing and high defensive work rate keep them in control. Burnley’s lower pass accuracy and minimal tackling reflect their reactive style.
Villa tend to score more after the break, with 60% of goals in the second half. Burnley’s timing is less clear, but recent games show early and late concessions.
Villa’s league games have been cagey, with 80% under 2.5 goals. Burnley’s matches are more open, with over 2.5 landing in most of their recent outings.
Villa’s steady 1.4 points per game reflects their knack for avoiding defeat. Burnley’s 0.75 shows their struggle to turn performances into results.
Aston Villa at home: Unbeaten in their last five league games at Villa Park, with three draws and a win, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.6 per game on average. Their home strength is clear, with clean sheets in two of five.
Burnley away: Just one point from three away league games, with 0.67 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per game. Heavy defeats at Spurs and Man City highlight their road struggles.
Goals Against (per game)
Villa’s attack edges Burnley’s, but their home games are often tight. Burnley’s leaky defence faces a stern test against Villa’s set-piece threat.
xG Against (per game)
Villa’s 1.2 xG per game shows they create decent chances, while their 1.1 xGA suggests a balanced defence. Burnley’s 0.75 xG and 2.05 xGA underline their struggle to match stronger sides in quality.
Villa have had the upper hand recently, winning three of the last five against Burnley. In December 2023, Villa edged a 3-2 thriller at home, and they won 3-1 at Turf Moor earlier that season. May 2022 saw a 1-1 draw at Villa Park and a 3-1 Villa win away. Burnley’s last victory was a 3-2 home win in January 2021. These games average 3.4 goals, so expect action.
Villa’s home form and set-piece edge give them the advantage, while Burnley’s defensive issues and low xG away make it tough to see them getting much. The hosts should control the ball and create better chances, though Burnley’s counter threat could keep it close.
Prediction: 2–1 home win.
Main pick: Aston Villa to Win — Villa’s unbeaten home record and Burnley’s poor away form (0.67 goals scored, 3.0 conceded) make this a solid choice.
Value angle: Both Teams to Score — Burnley have scored in most recent games, and Villa’s games often see both sides net, with a 55% BTTS likelihood.
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Who will win Aston Villa vs Burnley?
We’re backing Villa to take the points, given their strong home form and Burnley’s struggles away. Our call is a 2–1 home win.
What is the best bet in the Aston Villa vs Burnley game?
Aston Villa to Win is the main pick; a value bet is Both Teams to Score at 55% likelihood.
What time does Aston Villa vs Burnley kick off in the UK?
Sunday, 5 October 2025. Check final TV listings for the confirmed UK kick-off time.
Where is Aston Villa vs Burnley being played?
At Villa Park, Birmingham, England.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Aston Villa and Burnley?
Villa won 3-2 at home in December 2023 and 3-1 away in August 2023. A 1-1 draw came in May 2022 at Villa Park, with Villa winning 3-1 away earlier that month. Burnley won 3-2 at home in January 2021.
Who has the better form going into Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Villa are 4–4–2 across their last 10, while Burnley are 2–1–5. Villa’s unbeaten home run gives them the edge.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Aston Villa vs Burnley?
2–1 to Aston Villa.
Who has the better xG in Aston Villa vs Burnley?
Villa lead with 1.2 xG for / 1.1 xGA compared to Burnley’s 0.75 xG for / 2.05 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Aston Villa vs Burnley game?
Model probability is 55%.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Aston Villa vs Burnley game?
Leaning to Over 2.5 Goals, given the 62.5% frequency in Burnley’s games and Villa’s attacking edge at home.