Newcastle v Arsenal | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | Premier League | 28th September 2025

Newcastle United vs Arsenal kicks off on 28 September 2025 at St James’ Park. This one feels like a genuine test for both: the hosts are defending a strong home record, while the visitors have put together one of the best defensive records in the league. Expect a raucous Tyneside crowd with a lively away following — intensity guaranteed.

The hosts usually set up in a 4-3-3 with a compact mid-block and sharp transitions into the wide channels. The visitors lean on a 4-3-3 that morphs into a 2-3-5 in possession: patient build-up, high full-backs and relentless territory. It’s counter-punching against structured dominance.

• Newcastle average 52% possession, generate ~1.2 xG and concede ~1.0 xGA. Their transitions and restarts are the main attacking outlets.
• Arsenal average 60% possession, produce ~1.8 xG and allow just 0.7 xGA. Their higher line compresses space and forces turnovers.
• Set-pieces matter: both average 0.3–0.4 goals from dead balls per game.

Newcastle last 10: 6-2-2. Goals: 17 for, 8 against (1.7/0.8 per game). Clean sheets: 4/10. Trend: solid at home, multiple shutouts, efficient on the break.

Arsenal last 10: 9-1-0. Goals: 22 for, 4 against (2.2/0.4 per game). Clean sheets: 6/10. Trend: control and consistency, rarely conceding, with steady chance creation.

Newcastle at home: five wins from six with three clean sheets, averaging just over two goals scored. St James’ Park has felt like a fortress.

Arsenal away: multiple wins to nil, steady two-goal average, tight distances out of possession and comfort on the ball in hostile venues.

Arsenal’s 1.8 xG for and 0.7 against suggests stronger chance quality. Newcastle sit at 1.2 for, 1.0 against — decent but not at the same level.

In the last five meetings: Arsenal edged a close game in May 2025, Newcastle won at home in December 2024, Arsenal claimed two clean-sheet wins in 2023, and there was a 0-0 draw at the Emirates. Clean sheets and narrow margins have defined the series.

Prediction: 0–1 away win. Newcastle’s home strength will make it tight, but Arsenal’s control and xG edge should see them edge it with one big moment.

Main Pick: Arsenal — Draw No Bet — their chance profile and defensive record make them safer value.

Value Play: BTTS — No — most recent head-to-heads have finished with one side blanked.