Fiorentina vs Napoli | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 13th September 2025
Tactically, the hosts are set up for front-foot football in a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 blend: full-backs high, aggressive wingers and plenty of shots from zone 14. Napoli, as ever, look calm and methodical in a fluid 4-3-3 — crisp circulation through midfield with runners beyond the line and a wide threat that forces you back. It’s punch versus poise, with transitions likely to decide the margins.
- David de Gea is on the books and competing for the gloves.
- Tariq Lamptey gives Fiorentina elite recovery pace at right-back and licence to push on.
- No major fresh suspensions noted ahead of this one. Matchday decisions will focus on balance in midfield to manage Napoli’s counters.
- Kevin De Bruyne adds world-class chance creation between the lines.
- Romelu Lukaku is part of the squad picture this season; fitness management remains a storyline.
- Defensive selection revolves around partnerships alongside the ever-reliable Giovanni Di Lorenzo, with build-up control through Stanislav Lobotka.
Record: 4–3–3. Goals: 17 for, 11 against (1.7 scored, 1.1 conceded per match). Clean sheets: 3/10. There’s a nice edge to their home attacking play: a big win, a couple of gritty one-goal victories and the odd trading-blows type of game. They tend to grow after the break, with a shade more output in second halves.
Record: 6–2–2. Goals: 17 for, 9 against (1.7 scored, 0.9 conceded per match). Clean sheets: 4/10. Napoli look settled: a handful of clean sheets, measured possession, and enough punch to nick games without stretching themselves. If anything, they’re more ruthless when protecting a lead.
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Metric | Fiorentina | Napoli |
---|---|---|
Average goals scored per match | 3.0 (’25/26 to date) | 1.5 (’25/26 to date) |
Average goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Clean sheet percentage | 50% | 100% |
Average possession | 63.5% | 65% |
Average corners won per match | 5.5 | 5.0 |
Average yellow cards per match | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Average shots / on target per match | 16 / 6 | 15.5 / 5 |
Expected goals per match | 1.70 | 1.35 |
Average set-piece goals scored | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Average set-piece goals conceded | 0.5 | 0.0 |
Average pass completion | 86% | 87.1% |
Average tackles + interceptions | 14 + 7 | 1.5 combined* |
Goal timing (first half / second half) | 50% / 50% | 50% / 50% |
Over / Under 2.5 goals (match total) | 50% Over / 50% Under | 0% Over / 100% Under |
Average points per match | 1.50 | 3.00 |
*Napoli’s “1.5 tackles + interceptions” is the early ’25/26 sample; they control the ball for long spells which suppresses raw defensive actions.
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Fiorentina at home (last 10 at the Franchi, all comps): broadly positive with a majority of results taken — think around the mid-50s for win rate — and roughly 1.7 scored / 1.0 conceded per game. Clean sheets have arrived in runs rather than evenly spread, often when they start quickly and keep the full-backs pinned high.
Napoli away (last 10 on the road): strong travellers, close to a half of those games won, with scoring around 1.8 for / 0.9 against. They tend to keep the ball and squeeze territory, which helps them manage leads without dropping the block too deep.
Goals Against
- Tariq Lamptey (Fiorentina) — his recovery pace invites Fiorentina to press higher; the timing of his overlaps could pull Napoli’s block apart.
- Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli) — still the standard-bearer for disguised passes into the area. Give him runners and he’ll find them.
- Stanislav Lobotka (Napoli) — keeps Napoli secure in possession, offering the angles to play through pressure.
- David de Gea (Fiorentina) — shot-stopping and aerial command will matter if Napoli rack up territory and corners.
Fiorentina bring goals at home, but Napoli’s control and chance quality travel well. With both sides showing early defensive steel, it’s set up for a proper tussle decided by fine details in midfield.
Prediction: 1–1 draw — cagey early on, then opening up after the hour with each side landing a punch.
Draw — Napoli’s away control versus Fiorentina’s home thrust points to a stalemate more often than not, especially with both defences trending efficient in the opening fortnight.
Under 3.0 Asian Goals — early-season Napoli have banked clean sheets and manage game state well; Fiorentina’s numbers suggest goals but not necessarily a shoot-out. A line at 3.0 protects the stake if it finishes exactly on three.
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