Juventus vs AC Milan | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 5 October 2025
This is the big one—Juventus vs AC Milan in a proper Serie A title race showdown. Thiago Motta’s Juventus are flying at home, unbeaten in five league games, but their midweek Champions League draw showed they need to sharpen up in front of goal. Paulo Fonseca’s Milan are buzzing, unbeaten in four with a recent Europa League win, though a packed schedule might stretch them thin. Juventus will likely stick with a 4-2-3-1, controlling the ball and pressing high, while Milan’s 4-3-3 will look to hit fast on the break and exploit the flanks. With Juventus bossing recent head-to-heads, Milan will be itching to flip the script, but injuries could make this a cagey tactical battle.
- Possession tussle: Juventus’ 58% possession average just pips Milan’s 56%, with the hosts leaning on central build-up while Milan stretch play out wide.
- Midfield scrap: Juventus’ 15.0 tackles and 8.5 interceptions per game are neck-and-neck with Milan’s 14.8 tackles and 8.2 interceptions, setting up a fierce battle in the middle.
- Chance creation: Milan’s 1.8 xG edges Juventus’ 1.6 xG, but Juventus’ stingy 0.9 xGA could keep Milan’s attack in check.
Juventus last 10: 5–4–1, goals 16 for / 9 against, clean sheets 4. Juventus are rock-solid at home, but their finishing needs work after a frustrating European draw.
AC Milan last 10: 5–3–2, goals 17 for / 8 against, clean sheets 4. Milan’s attack is firing, but their away form has shown some cracks.
Milan’s attack has a slight edge, but Juventus’ home scoring rate keeps them in the hunt.
Milan’s defence is a bit tighter, but Juventus’ home record makes them tough to breach.
Milan’s higher clean sheet rate shows their defensive nous, but Juventus are no slouches at home.
It’s a close call on the ball, with Juventus’ home control facing Milan’s slick passing game.
Both teams get stuck in, so expect a feisty one with 3–5 yellow cards likely.
Both sides pepper the goal with similar shot volumes, with Milan’s slight accuracy edge a potential factor.
Milan’s 1.8 xG gives them a slight creative edge, but Juventus’ 1.2 xGA is a touch less exposed than Milan’s 1.0.
Juventus’ set-piece threat could be a difference-maker, especially with Milan’s dead-ball defending unclear.
Juventus’ slick passing and high work rate give them a slight edge, but Milan’s compact setup will make it tough.
Juventus’ home games are split on goals, while Milan’s lean slightly under, suggesting a potentially tight affair.
Milan’s slight points edge shows their attacking form, but Juventus’ home strength keeps it close.
Juventus at home: Unbeaten in five league games at Allianz Stadium, with three wins and two draws, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.6 per game. Their home ground is a proper fortress.
AC Milan away: One win, one draw, and one loss from three league away games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.67 per game. Their away form is decent but not bulletproof.
Goals Against (per game)
Milan’s attack has a slight edge, but Juventus’ home defence could keep this game tight and low-scoring.
xG Against (per game)
Milan’s 1.8 xG just shades Juventus’ 1.7, but Juventus’ 1.2 xGA is a touch less vulnerable than Milan’s 1.0, pointing to a tight contest.
Juventus have had the upper hand lately, winning three of the last five clashes. They pipped Milan 4-3 in a wild game at San Siro in May 2024 and won 1-0 at home in October 2023. A 0-0 draw came at San Siro in May 2023, while Juventus also won 2-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana in September 2022 and 1-0 in the Coppa Italia in January 2022. These matches average 2.0 goals, with Juventus’ defensive nous often making the difference.
Juventus’ home fortress and head-to-head dominance give them the edge, but Milan’s attacking form and European momentum make this a close call. Thiago Motta’s high-pressing game will test Milan’s backline, while Paulo Fonseca’s side will look to hit on the counter. Injuries could force both managers to shuffle their packs, but Juventus’ defensive solidity at home should nick it in a tight, low-scoring affair.
Prediction: 1–0 home win.
Main pick: Juventus to Win — Their unbeaten home record, 0.9 xGA in Serie A, and H2H dominance make them a solid pick.
Value angle: Under 2.5 Goals — With 60% of Juventus’ home games and 57.1% of Milan’s matches under 2.5, plus a tight H2H average, this looks a smart bet.
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Who will win Juventus vs AC Milan?
We’re backing Juventus to nick it, given their home form and H2H edge. Our call is a 1–0 home win.
What is the best bet in the Juventus vs AC Milan game?
Juventus to Win is the main pick; a value bet is Under 2.5 Goals given the tight H2H trends and defensive stats.
What time does Juventus vs AC Milan kick off in the UK?
Sunday, 5 October 2025, at 5:00 PM BST. Check final TV listings for confirmation.
Where is Juventus vs AC Milan being played?
At Allianz Stadium, Turin, Italy.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Juventus and AC Milan?
Juventus won 4-3 at San Siro in May 2024, 1-0 at home in October 2023, 2-0 in the Supercoppa Italiana in September 2022, and 1-0 in the Coppa Italia in January 2022. A 0-0 draw came at San Siro in May 2023.
Who has the better form going into Juventus vs AC Milan?
Juventus are 5–4–1 across their last 10, while Milan are 5–3–2. Juventus’ home form gives them a slight edge.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Juventus vs AC Milan?
1–0 to Juventus.
Who has the best xG in Juventus vs AC Milan?
Milan lead with 1.8 xG for / 1.0 xGA compared to Juventus’ 1.7 xG for / 1.2 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Juventus vs AC Milan game?
Model probability is 60%.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Juventus vs AC Milan game?
Leaning to Under 2.5 Goals, with Juventus’ 60% under rate at home and tight H2H history.