Napoli vs Pisa | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 22nd September 2025

A classic top-flight vs new arrival clash in Naples on 22 September 2025. Napoli have opened the league campaign perfectly and want to keep momentum after a tough midweek in Europe. Pisa are back at this level and already own a statement away win, but arrive after a narrow setback last time out. Expect a lively, packed home end and a stubborn travelling section — proper noise for a Monday fixture.

On the grass, the hosts have leaned into a high-possession approach (around 60%), happy to build through a back three shape in the first phase and switch into a 4-3-3/3-2-5 with the wide runner pinning the last line. The visitors are more pragmatic: typically 4-4-2/4-2-3-1, lower block, quick channels into the striker and set-piece focus. It’s control and territory versus compact counters.

• Territory tilt: the hosts average ~60% possession and 88.5% pass completion, funnelling attacks with patient switches before a burst down the outside lane.
• Visitors’ set-piece value: around 0.33 set-piece goals scored per match so far, with 4.0 corners per game — expect long throws, outswingers, and crowding the six-yard box.
• Press-and-pounce moments: the hosts post ~1.80 xG and allow just ~0.70 xGA; the visitors sit near 0.90 xG and 1.10 xGA. If the game becomes stretched, the gap in chance quality usually shows.

Napoli (last 10 competitive): 8–1–1, with roughly 21 scored and 8 conceded. Clean sheets in 4 of those 10 and a habit of striking early (slight first-half bias). Even with a recent European defeat, the domestic rhythm looks strong.

Pisa (last 10 competitive): 5–3–2, about 11 scored and 6 conceded, five clean sheets. The defensive platform is real, but chance creation can ebb away when pinned deep.

Napoli: 2.00
Pisa: 0.67

Napoli: 0.33
Pisa: 0.67

Napoli: 67%
Pisa: 67%

Napoli: 60%
Pisa: 45%

Napoli: 5.3
Pisa: 4.0

Napoli: 1.67
Pisa: 2.33

Napoli: 14.0 (5.0 on target)
Pisa: 9.7 (3.3 on target)

Napoli: 1.80
Pisa: 0.90

Napoli: 0.70
Pisa: 1.10

Napoli: 0.33
Pisa: 0.33

Napoli: 0.17
Pisa: 0.33

Napoli: 88.5%
Pisa: 82%

Napoli: 15.3 / 10.0
Pisa: 13.0 / 8.7

Napoli: 55% first half / 45% second half
Pisa: 50% first half / 50% second half

Napoli: 67% under / 33% over (this season)
Pisa: 100% under / 0% over (this season)

Napoli: 3.00
Pisa: 1.33

Napoli at home (recent trend): strong control of territory, frequent early pressure and a steady stream of corners. The defensive block sits high, and the counter-press often kills transitions at source.

Pisa away (recent trend): compact lines, full-backs cautious, and quick diagonal releases to escape pressure. Clean sheets are achievable when the shape holds, but sustained defending can drain attacking numbers.

The hosts typically create around 1.8 xG per match while allowing ~0.7 xGA; the visitors are nearer 0.9 xG and 1.1 xGA. That points to a clear expected chance gap favouring the home side if the game sticks to the usual script.

The last five meetings lean heavily to Napoli: home wins in 2007 (cup) and 2005 (league), an away win in 2006, and another home success in 2004, with a single draw in Pisa in 2005. The fixture hasn’t been regular in recent top-flight seasons, so present form matters more than deep history.

The visitors defend well in spells and bring set-piece threat, but the hosts’ control of possession, shot volume and xG profile should tell over 90 minutes. If the first goal arrives early, space opens and the favourites usually press home the advantage.

Prediction: Napoli 2–0 Pisa

Main pick: Home win — stronger chance creation (1.80 xG vs 0.90), better defensive record (0.33 conceded per match this league season).

Value bet: Home win to nil — visitors trend low-scoring (all three league matches under 2.5) and the hosts’ xGA sits below 1.0.