Inter Miami CF vs New York City FC — MLS Eastern Conference Final, 29 November 2025

It’s the biggest game in Inter Miami’s short history – one win away from reaching the MLS Cup Final. NYCFC stand in their way, but Miami have been unstoppable at Chase Stadium all season. Expect a pink cauldron of noise and a passionate travelling support from the Bronx.

Miami line up in a high-energy 4-3-3, pressing high and dominating possession. NYCFC usually go 4-2-3-1 and look to counter quickly. No major fresh injury concerns for either camp heading into this one.

Miami average 55% possession and create 1.8 xG per game while restricting opponents to just 1.2 – they’ve become a juggernaut at home. NYCFC rely on quick transitions but have looked vulnerable defensively away from Yankee Stadium.

Set pieces could be key – Miami score 0.3 per game from dead balls and are rock-solid defending them.

Inter Miami over the last ten: seven wins, two draws, one defeat – 21 scored, 10 conceded, five clean sheets. Absolutely flying and unbeaten in their last eight at home.

NYCFC: five wins, two draws, three defeats – 12 scored, 14 conceded, three clean sheets. Inconsistent on the road and only one clean sheet in their last seven away games.

Around 3-4 bookings – leaning under 3.5 cards in a high-stakes but fairly disciplined final.

Combined average 11 – over 9.5 corners looks a banker.

Miami average 6 on their own – over 9 shots on target should sail in.

Inter Miami at home (last 10): 90% win rate, averaging 2.6 scored and just 0.7 conceded – an absolute fortress.

NYCFC away (last 10): only 30% wins, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.7 conceded – they’ve struggled badly on the road.

Miami dominate both creation and prevention – the underlying numbers scream a comfortable home win.

Miami have owned this fixture recently: a 4-0 thrashing in New York in September, a 6-2 demolition at home in June 2024, and three draws before that. Four of the last five meetings saw both teams score.

Miami are in imperious form at Chase Stadium and have far too much firepower for an inconsistent NYCFC side. This has home win written all over it.

Prediction: Inter Miami 3-0 New York City FC

Main pick: Inter Miami -1.5 handicap – they’ve covered this in five of their last seven home wins.

Value angle: Inter Miami to win to nil – five clean sheets in ten and NYCFC have failed to score in four of their last six away games.

Double chance: Inter Miami or draw – Miami are unbeaten at home in months.

Over/under 2.5 goals: Over – Miami games hit 60% over and they’re scoring for fun.

Half-time/full-time: Inter Miami/Inter Miami – they’ve led at the break in six of their last ten home games.