Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas | Football (soccer) Previews & Free Betting Tips | 28th September 2025

Portland arrive buoyed by a four-game unbeaten run and plan to lean on their home rhythm. Dallas have found sparks of life and will try to nick this with incisive transitions. Shape-wise, the hosts typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 that can morph into a 3-4-3 when the full-backs push on; the visitors favour a compact 4-3-3 and look to break quickly through wide runners and a busy striker. It’s control and circulation versus direct counters.

Dallas make the long 1,950-mile hop from Texas to Oregon, switching from Central to Pacific Time. The two-hour shift is manageable, but the travel load still hands a small advantage to the hosts who stay in routine.

A cool, damp Pacific Northwest evening: around 25°C dropping towards 12°C by kick-off, high humidity and a slim chance of drizzle. That usually speeds up the ball on the deck without introducing wind or heat issues. No altitude to worry about.

Providence Park’s natural grass hybrid suits both, but Portland are particularly comfortable here when the surface is slick. Expect crisp combination play and whipped deliveries from set pieces.

• Possession vs punch: Portland average 51% possession and build through the thirds; Dallas sit at 42%, happier to absorb and burst when space appears.
• Defensive contrast: Portland concede just 1.07 per game; Dallas allow 1.63. The hosts’ back line is generally more compact around the box.
• Dead-ball needle: Dallas average 0.4 set-piece goals per match, a slight edge over Portland’s 0.3 — corners and free-kicks could matter.

Portland last 10: 4–3–3. Goals: 13 for, 11 against. Clean sheets: 3. The hosts have tightened up defensively and tend to edge close games at home.

Dallas last 10: 5–1–4. Goals: 15 for, 14 against. Clean sheets: 2. The visitors blow hot and cold — lively in transition, but open when the press is broken.

Portland at Providence Park: across the recent home slate the hosts are 4–1–2, about 1.7 GF / 1.1 GA per game. The crowd helps the press and the tempo.

Dallas on the road: the latest three away show 2–0–1 with roughly 2.0 GF / 1.3 GA. Dangerous in transition but can be stretched when defending sustained pressure.

Portland consistently create around 1.45 xG with 1.21 xGA, while Dallas sit closer to 1.34 xG and 1.66 xGA, showing a clearer expected-chance edge for the hosts.

The last five meetings are tight but lean Dallas: Dallas 2–0 Portland (Aug 2025), Portland 0–0 Dallas (Oct 2024), Dallas 3–2 Portland (Jul 2024), Portland 1–0 Dallas (Jun 2023), Dallas 2–1 Portland (Oct 2022). Margins are usually a goal either way.

Home comfort, the sturdier defensive numbers, and friendlier xG profile point to Portland edging it — but Dallas’ transition threat keeps this lively. Set-plays may be decisive given both sides’ output from dead balls.

Prediction: 2–1 home win.

Main pick: Both Teams To Score — Portland’s recent home games and Dallas’ away profile point to chances at both ends.

Value angle: Portland Draw No Bet — stronger defensive metrics (1.07 GA vs 1.63 GA) and better xGA support the home side on a safety-first line.