Iceland vs Ukraine | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 10 October 2025
Iceland, third in Group D, come off a 5-0 win over Azerbaijan but a 2-1 loss to France, with manager Åge Hareide calling for “character” on Oct 5, though injuries are a concern. Ukraine, second after a 3-1 win over Iceland and a 1-1 draw with Azerbaijan, have manager Serhiy Rebrov praising their “vital win” on Oct 4, despite a depleted squad. Iceland will likely use a 4-4-2, leaning on set pieces and home grit, while Ukraine’s 4-3-3 will push for possession and width. The Laugardalsvöllur atmosphere will be electric, with Ukraine’s fans adding noise.
- Possession battle: Ukraine’s 52% possession edges Iceland’s 44%, with 35% of attacks through the flanks versus Iceland’s 30% central focus.
- Set-piece danger: Both sides score 0.20 set-piece goals per game, but Ukraine concede 0.40 compared to Iceland’s 0.30, suggesting dead balls could be key.
- Shot volume: Ukraine’s 12.0 shots (4.0 on target) slightly outpace Iceland’s 10.5 (3.5 on target), indicating a tight attacking contest.
Iceland last 10: 2–2–6, goals 9 for / 12 against, 2 clean sheets. The hosts showed spark with a big win over Azerbaijan but struggle for consistency.
Ukraine last 10: 3–2–5, goals 10 for / 18 against, 2 clean sheets. The visitors have been patchy, with a strong win over Iceland but heavy losses elsewhere.
Ukraine’s edge in possession could control the tempo, but Iceland’s home grit might disrupt their flow.
Ukraine’s slightly higher shot volume could test Iceland’s defence, especially given their xG edge.
Ukraine may edge 5-6 corners, with Iceland likely getting 3-5, totaling around 8-11 corners.
Close booking rates suggest a feisty game, with 3-5 yellows likely as both sides compete fiercely.
Ukraine’s slightly better xG and higher xGA suggest a game with chances at both ends.
Ukraine’s set-piece vulnerability could be exploited by Iceland’s home set-piece threat.
Ukraine’s slightly better passing and work rate could give them an edge, but Iceland’s grit keeps it close.
Both teams score more after the break, suggesting a tight first half could open up later.
Both teams lean toward low-scoring games, but Ukraine’s recent high-scoring clashes could push the total up.
Equal clean sheet rates suggest both defences are vulnerable, increasing BTTS potential.
Equal points tallies reflect their similar form, setting up a tight contest.
Iceland at home: 2–1–1 from 4 competitive games, scoring 7 and conceding 3, with 1 clean sheet. The hosts are tough to break down at Laugardalsvöllur.
Ukraine away: 1–1–2 from 4 competitive games, scoring 2 and conceding 7, with 1 clean sheet. The visitors struggle on the road but can nick results.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Ukraine edge slightly with 1.10 xG per game and face 1.70 xGA, while Iceland post 1.00 xG and 1.30 xGA, suggesting a game with chances at both ends.
Recent meetings have been tight: Ukraine won 3-1 (2024, Lviv) and 3-2 (2017, Lviv), while Iceland won 2-1 on aggregate (2021, Reykjavik). Draws include 2-2 (2017, Reykjavik) and 1-1 (2015, Lviv). Both sides have scored in most clashes, pointing to a competitive game.
Ukraine’s slight xG edge and recent head-to-head win give them a narrow advantage, but Iceland’s home form and set-piece threat make this close. Injuries on both sides could lead to a scrappy, open game. Expect both teams to find the net in a tight contest.
Prediction: 1–1 draw.
Main pick: BTTS — Both teams’ 20% clean sheet rates, 60% BTTS likelihood, and head-to-head history support goals at both ends, priced at 10/11 with AK Bets.
Value angle: Draw — Equal points per game (0.90) and tight head-to-head record suggest a stalemate is likely.
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Who will win Iceland vs Ukraine?
We lean toward a draw, with a predicted 1–1 result given the tight head-to-head record and similar form.
What is the best bet in the Iceland vs Ukraine game?
BTTS is our main pick; a Draw offers value at 60% BTTS likelihood.
What time does Iceland vs Ukraine kick off in the UK?
Friday, 10 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Iceland vs Ukraine being played?
At Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavik, Iceland.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Iceland and Ukraine?
Ukraine won 3-1 (2024, Lviv), 3-2 (2017, Lviv); Iceland won 2-1 on aggregate (2021, Reykjavik); draws 2-2 (2017, Reykjavik), 1-1 (2015, Lviv).
Who has the better form going into Iceland vs Ukraine?
Iceland (2–2–6, 9–12) and Ukraine (3–2–5, 10–18) have identical 0.90 points per game, making form a toss-up.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Iceland vs Ukraine?
1–1 draw.
Who has the best xG in Iceland vs Ukraine?
Ukraine edge with 1.10 xG for / 1.70 xGA versus Iceland’s 1.00 xG for / 1.30 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Iceland vs Ukraine game?
Our model gives a 60% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Iceland vs Ukraine game?
Iceland’s 30% over 2.5 rate and Ukraine’s 40% suggest a close call, but we lean Under 2.5 Goals with their defensive tendencies.