Malta vs Netherlands | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 9 October 2025
Malta, bottom of Group K, are coming off a gritty 1-1 draw with Lithuania, with manager Devis Mangia, confirmed Oct 5, eyeing a shock result despite injuries. The Netherlands, leading the group, have been solid but not flawless, with manager Ronald Koeman pushing for a big win after a recent loss to Spain. Malta will likely deploy a 5-4-1, sitting deep to frustrate, while the Dutch’s 4-3-3 will dominate possession and attack through the wings. The Ta’ Qali crowd will be vocal, but the Dutch travelling support will expect a comfortable night.
- Possession gulf: Netherlands’ 62% possession dwarfs Malta’s 44%, with 45% of Dutch attacks down the flanks compared to Malta’s 30% through central channels.
- Set-piece threat: Netherlands score 0.30 set-piece goals per game versus Malta’s 0.20, but Malta’s low 0.10 conceded rate shows defensive resilience.
- Shot volume: Netherlands fire 13.7 shots (4.8 on target) per game, while Malta’s 11.7 (3.5 on target) suggests they’ll struggle to match the Dutch’s firepower.
Malta last 10: 4–3–3, goals 8 for / 5 against, 5 clean sheets. The hosts are hard to break down, with wins over Gibraltar and Faroe Islands, but lack consistent scoring.
Netherlands last 10: 5–3–2, goals 20 for / 7 against, 4 clean sheets. The visitors are in strong form, with a big 8-0 win over Malta in June boosting confidence.
The Dutch will likely dominate the ball, with Malta sitting deep to counter.
Netherlands’ higher shot volume and accuracy could overwhelm Malta’s defence.
Netherlands should rack up 6-8 corners, with Malta likely getting 3-5, totaling around 9-11.
Malta’s higher booking rate could lead to 3-5 yellows as they defend deep against Dutch pressure.
Netherlands’ superior xG profile highlights their attacking threat, while Malta’s low xGA shows defensive solidity.
Netherlands’ set-piece edge could be key, but Malta’s tight defending might limit damage.
Netherlands’ crisp passing and higher work rate should control the game, but Malta’s grit could disrupt them.
Both teams score slightly more after the break, suggesting an early Dutch goal could open things up.
Netherlands’ high-scoring games contrast with Malta’s low totals, pointing to a potentially lopsided scoreline.
Netherlands’ stronger points tally reflects their dominance, while Malta’s resilience keeps them competitive.
Malta at home: 2–2–1 from 5 competitive games, scoring 5 and conceding 2, with 3 clean sheets. The hosts are tough to break down at Ta’ Qali but lack firepower.
Netherlands away: 2–2–1 from 5 competitive games, scoring 11 and conceding 3, with 2 clean sheets. The visitors are clinical on the road, with an 8-0 thrashing of Malta in June.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Netherlands generate a strong 2.10 xG per game, dwarfing Malta’s 0.90, while their 0.80 xGA shows defensive solidity. Malta’s low xGA suggests they’ll hold firm but struggle to create.
The Netherlands have dominated recent meetings: an 8-0 thrashing in Amsterdam in June 2025, 4-0 wins in Valletta and Amsterdam in 1995 (Euro Qualifiers), and a 2-1 win in 1990 (WC Qualifier). Malta’s sole victory was a 1-0 upset at home in 1991, showing they can occasionally surprise.
The Netherlands’ attacking prowess and 8-0 win in the reverse fixture make them heavy favourites, despite injuries. Malta’s defensive resilience and home crowd could keep it tighter, but their lack of firepower limits upset chances. Expect the Dutch to strike early and control the game.
Prediction: 0–3 away win.
Main pick: Netherlands to score in first 10 minutes — their 2.10 xG, 48% first-half goals, and Malta’s 0.70 xGA support an early breakthrough.
Value angle: Netherlands to Win & Over 2.5 Goals — their 60% over 2.5 rate and 8-0 win in June point to a high-scoring game.
AK Bets are an excellent bookmaker. Join here and get up to £100 in free bets.
KickTheBookies gives you free match previews for every game — but our Premium Members get exclusive access to high confidence bets with suggested stakes. Join today for just £10/month with a 10-day free trial.
Who will win Malta vs Netherlands?
We lean toward the Netherlands, with a predicted 0–3 away win given their superior form and xG profile.
What is the best bet in the Malta vs Netherlands game?
Netherlands to score in first 10 minutes is our main pick; Netherlands to Win & Over 2.5 Goals offers value.
What time does Malta vs Netherlands kick off in the UK?
Thursday, 9 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Malta vs Netherlands being played?
At Ta’ Qali Stadium, Valletta, Malta.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Malta and Netherlands?
Netherlands won 8-0 (Jun 2025, Amsterdam), 4-0 (Nov 1995, Valletta), 4-0 (Mar 1995, Amsterdam), 2-1 (Oct 1990, Amsterdam); Malta won 1-0 (Mar 1991, Valletta).
Who has the better form going into Malta vs Netherlands?
Netherlands are stronger at 5–3–2 (20–7) versus Malta’s 4–3–3 (8–5) over the last 10 games.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Malta vs Netherlands?
0–3 to Netherlands.
Who has the best xG in Malta vs Netherlands?
Netherlands lead with 2.10 xG for / 0.80 xGA versus Malta’s 0.90 xG for / 0.70 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Malta vs Netherlands game?
Our model gives a 35% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Malta vs Netherlands game?
Netherlands’ 60% over 2.5 rate and Malta’s defensive solidity suggest a strong chance of over 2.5 goals.