Scotland vs Greece | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 9 October 2025
Scotland, second in Group C, are stinging from a 3-0 home loss to Greece in September, with manager Steve Clarke calling for a response despite injury woes. Greece, top of the group, are in fine form, with manager Ivan Jovanović eyeing another win despite absences. Scotland will likely use a 4-2-3-1, pressing high and attacking wide, while Greece’s 4-3-3 will aim to control possession and exploit transitions. Hampden will be electric, with the Tartan Army pushing their side for a crucial win.
- Possession battle: Greece edge possession at 48% to Scotland’s 46%, with 40% of their attacks through central channels versus Scotland’s 45% down the flanks.
- Set-piece threat: Greece score 0.30 set-piece goals per game and concede 0.20, while Scotland’s 0.20/0.30 balance suggests dead balls could be decisive.
- Shot volume: Both teams average 12.0 shots (4.0 on target), but Greece’s higher xG (1.80 vs 1.20) shows better chance quality.
Scotland last 10: 3–2–5, goals 12 for / 15 against, 2 clean sheets. The hosts have struggled lately, with heavy losses to Greece and Croatia, but home wins show fight.
Greece last 10: 6–1–3, goals 22 for / 7 against, 5 clean sheets. The visitors are flying, with big wins over Scotland and Belarus, though a loss to Denmark stings.
Greece’s slight possession edge could see them control the tempo, but Scotland’s pressing might disrupt their rhythm.
Equal shot volume suggests a balanced attacking threat, but Greece’s higher xG hints at better finishing.
Greece may edge corners with 5-7, Scotland likely getting 4-6, totaling around 9-11.
Greece’s higher booking rate could lead to a feisty game, with 3-5 yellows likely in a physical battle.
Greece’s superior xG and lower xGA highlight their attacking edge and defensive solidity.
Greece’s set-piece prowess could be a game-changer, while Scotland’s vulnerability might cost them.
Greece’s slightly better passing could help them dictate play, but Scotland’s tackling intensity keeps them competitive.
Both teams score more after the break, suggesting a tight first half could open up later.
Greece’s clinical finishing could push this over 2.5 goals, but Scotland’s home games often stay tight.
Greece’s stronger points tally reflects their form, but Scotland’s home crowd could narrow the gap.
Scotland at home: 2–2–1 from 5 competitive games, scoring 6 and conceding 5, with 1 clean sheet. Hampden is a fortress, but recent losses sting.
Greece away: 2–0–3 from 5 competitive games, scoring 6 and conceding 5, with 2 clean sheets. The visitors are potent on the road, with a 3-0 win at Scotland in September.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Greece generate a strong 1.80 xG per game and face 1.00 xGA, showing attacking and defensive quality. Scotland’s 1.20 xG and 1.30 xGA suggest they’ll compete but face an uphill battle.
Greece have dominated recently: 3-0 wins at Scotland in September 2025 and November 2024, plus a 1-0 victory in Athens in November 2024. Scotland’s last wins were a 1-0 in June 2013 and a 1-1 draw in October 2007, both at Hampden, showing they can hold their own at home.
Greece’s recent dominance and better xG make them favourites, but Scotland’s home form and crowd could spark a response. Injuries hit both sides, but Greece’s clinical edge gives them the edge. Expect a tight game with both teams finding the net.
Prediction: 1–2 away win.
Main pick: Greece to Win — sorry Scotland fans, their 3-0 win in September, better xG, and form make them likely winners.
Value angle: BTTS — a 55% model likelihood, with Scotland’s home scoring and Greece’s attacking threat supporting goals.
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Who will win Scotland vs Greece?
We lean toward Greece, with a predicted 1–2 away win given their recent dominance and better xG.
What is the best bet in the Scotland vs Greece game?
Greece to Win is our main pick; BTTS offers value at 55% likelihood.
What time does Scotland vs Greece kick off in the UK?
Thursday, 9 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Scotland vs Greece being played?
At Hampden Park, Glasgow, Scotland.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Scotland and Greece?
Greece won 3-0 (Sep 2025, Glasgow), 3-0 (Nov 2024, Glasgow), 1-0 (Nov 2024, Athens); Scotland won 1-0 (Jun 2013, Glasgow), drew 1-1 (Oct 2007, Glasgow).
Who has the better form going into Scotland vs Greece?
Greece are stronger at 6–1–3 (22–7) versus Scotland’s 3–2–5 (12–15) over the last 10 games.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Scotland vs Greece?
1–2 to Greece.
Who has the best xG in Scotland vs Greece?
Greece lead with 1.80 xG for / 1.00 xGA versus Scotland’s 1.20 xG for / 1.30 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Scotland vs Greece game?
Our model gives a 55% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Scotland vs Greece game?
Scotland’s 50% and Greece’s 40% over 2.5 rate suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals, given Greece’s attacking form.