Stick with the Changing Man
Our latest Cheltenham Corner antepost bet is The Changing Man in the Ultima, priced at 7/1.
The Changing Man comes into Cheltenham off a dominant win in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices Chase (3m, Good-to-Soft) at Ascot. He opened his account over fences in emphatic style, winning by 24 lengths over Leave Of Absence . This wide-margin victory showcased his stamina and jumping, and gave him a confidence boost after several near-misses.
Strong Handicap Form
Prior to Ascot, he ran a gallant 2nd of 13 in the £100k Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3m, Good-to-Soft) at Doncaster . He was beaten only 2 1/4 lengths by Docpickedme after every chance in the straight, pulling clear of the rest. This solid run as the 7/2 favourite confirmed his consistency in big fields and proved he can handle competitive, fast-run handicaps.
The Changing Man also posted an excellent 2nd in Ascot’s prestigious Silver Cup (Premier Handicap, ~3m) on Good-to-Soft ground. He was just ½ length behind winner Victtorino , with a gap of 9 lengths back to the third. Notably, he was contesting the lead in a strong pace and only caught late on, underlining his gritty staying ability. This was another high-value Class 1 handicap where he nearly took the prize.
In November 2024, he placed 2nd in a valuable 2m7f handicap at Newcastle (just 1 ¼ lengths behind Frero Banbou) , and had a luckless fall in the Badger Beer at Wincanton when well fancied . Even going back to last season, he was a close 2nd on heavy ground at Uttoxeter over 3m . Overall, he has finished first or second in five of his last six completed starts, all around 3 miles on ground ranging from good to heavy. This consistent form highlights both his stamina and versatility in different underfoot conditions.
Importantly, none of the horses that have finished in front of him recently are entered in the Ultima, whereas some he beat are potential rivals. This boosts confidence that he can uphold form against those he has already surpassed. His ability to handle experienced handicap veterans and up-and-coming types alike suggests he has a strong chance in the Ultima.
Handicap Mark
The Changing Man has been allotted an official rating (OR) of 140 for the Ultima , meaning he’ll carry around 10 st 11 lb in the handicap.
A mark of 140 appears very fair given his string of runner-up efforts in Class 1 handicaps and a Grade 2 win . He has only been raised a couple of pounds for the Ascot romp, suggesting the handicapper hasn’t over-penalized him. I feel he could have a few pounds in hand on this rating, considering the ease of that last win and his progressive profile.
Comparison to Past Winners
His rating sits in the typical range for Ultima winners. Notably, 13 of the last 26 winners had an OR between 139 and 145 (for example, last year’s winner Chianti Classico was rated 143) . In fact, 9 of the past 12 winners were rated 132-148 , so 140 is right in the sweet spot.
Weight Carried
Because his mark isn’t too high, he’ll carry a manageable weight. Trends show that 11 of the last 12 Ultima winners carried 11st 8lb or less , and top-weights have a poor record (only 1 top-weight winner in 25 years) . The Changing Man’s 10-11 is well within the favourable weight range, giving him a nice low-to-middle weight often ideal in this grueling race. He won’t have to shoulder a big burden, which could be crucial in a stamina test up Cheltenham’s hill.
Ultima Trends & How He Fits
Historical trends for the Ultima Handicap Chase paint a picture of the ideal profile and The Changing Man ticks many of the boxes:
Age: At 8 years old, he is in the prime age range. Eight of the last 10 Ultima winners were aged 7-9 , and 16 of the last 24 were 7 or 8 . He fits this trend perfectly as an 8-year-old with maturity and peak stamina.
Stamina: Proven endurance is key. All of the past 10 winners had already won over 3 miles . The Changing Man emphatically checks this box, having multiple victories at 3m-3m1f (hurdles and chases). A strongly-run 3m1f at Cheltenham should be within his compass.
Recent Form (Last Run): Ultima winners usually come in off a good last run – 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 last time out . The Changing Man won last time out (1st at Ascot), so his form is peaking at the right moment. In fact, while only about one-third of recent winners actually won their previous race , all had run well (all last 12 finished in the first six) . His latest victory (and a string of high placements before that) is a strong positive momentum-wise.
Frequency of Runs: He will be running 26 days after his last race, which sits nicely in the preferred range – 10 of the last 12 winners ran within 16-45 days of the Festival . He is fresh but not overly rested. The schedule suggests he is likely to be spot on fitness-wise for the big day.
Course Experience: One minor question mark is Cheltenham form. 6 of the last 8 Ultima winners had a previous Cheltenham victory . The Changing Man has raced at Cheltenham only once (8th in a handicap hurdle at the 2023 Festival) and has yet to win at this track. He lacks that proven course-winning experience that many past winners had . However, he has handled undulating tracks and big atmospheres, and his overall profile may overcome this. (Notably, novice chasers without much Cheltenham history can win – Vintage Clouds won this race without a prior Cheltenham win, and novices/second-season chasers generally do very well here .)
Novice/Unexposed FactorIt’s often a race for improving horses. Many Ultima winners are second-season chasers or novices capitalising on a lenient mark before the handicapper fully catches up . His progressive profile fits the bill of an unexposed horse with potential to improve past his rating, exactly the type to thrive in a Festival handicap.
Trainer & Jockey: The race has been kind to English trainers (no Irish-trained winner since 2006) , so Joe Tizzard’s yard is in the right camp. While Joe Tizzard himself isn’t a multiple winner of the Ultima, Joe’s father Colin won this race in 2013. On the jockey front, Brendan Powell is expected to ride, and he actually has a great record in the Ultima as one of a few jockeys with two wins in the last 20 renewals . Powell’s past success (including a win in 2021 on Vintage Clouds) is a significant asset, as he knows exactly how to time a ride in this demanding handicap.
In summary, The Changing Man brings strong credentials to the 2025 Ultima Handicap Chase. His red-hot form (multiple placings and a dominant win) and ideal profile (prime age, proven stamina, workable mark) align well with the known trends of this race. The only slight niggle is the lack of previous Cheltenham glory, but many indicators suggest he can overcome that. He ticks most of the boxes for an Ultima winner , and with a fair weight and a talented jockey on board, he looks poised for a big run at the Festival.
Selection: The Changing Man, Ultima, Cheltenham Festival.
