Kickthebookies is the analytical layer of horse racing: the statistics, prices and records behind a race, shown plainly so you can make your own call.
This page explains where a price comes from — how a bookmaker turns an opinion into odds, adds its margin and moves the price through the day — and how to build a set of prices of your own to read the market against. Every term is explained once.
Contents: A price is a probability · The overround: the bookmaker’s margin · How a bookmaker builds a price · The first show, the exchanges and the starting price · Why prices move · Pricing a race yourself · What a price edge means · A worked illustration · The words, plainly · Common questions
Every price is a statement about how likely the bookmaker thinks something is, with a margin added. Fractional odds tell you the profit on a stake: at 3/1 a winning £1 returns £3 profit plus the £1 back, £4 in all. To turn a price into a percentage, divide the right-hand number by the sum of the two: 3/1 is 1 ÷ 4 = 25%.
| Price | Decimal | Implied chance | Return on £10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4/6 | 1.67 | 60.0% | £16.67 |
| Evens (1/1) | 2.00 | 50.0% | £20.00 |
| 6/4 | 2.50 | 40.0% | £25.00 |
| 2/1 | 3.00 | 33.3% | £30.00 |
| 7/2 | 4.50 | 22.2% | £45.00 |
| 10/1 | 11.00 | 9.1% | £110.00 |
The decimal form is the total return per £1 including the stake, which is why 3/1 is 4.00. Reading a price as a percentage is the single most useful habit on this page: it lets you compare your own view of a horse with the market’s on the same scale.
Add up the implied chances of every runner in a race. If the book were fair they would total 100%. They never do: the amount over 100% is the overround, the bookmaker’s margin, and it is what the market as a whole cannot beat.
| Runner | Price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| A | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| B | 3/1 | 25.0% |
| C | 4/1 | 20.0% |
| D | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| E | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Book | 104.1% |
A five-runner book at 104% is tight. Big-field handicaps run much wider at most retail bookmakers, and the margin grows with every runner; exchange books sit close to 100% before commission because backers and layers set the price between them. Our odds comparison shows every listed bookmaker’s price on every runner side by side, so the margin you are paying is visible rather than hidden.
Three steps, in every firm, large or small.
So an opening price carries three things at once: the firm’s estimate, its margin and its guess about where the money will go. Only the first of those is about the horse.
The first show is the opening set of prices, usually the evening before or the morning of the race. The big online firms build it from in-house models, with traders adjusting for what a model cannot see — a yard’s target, a horse’s wellbeing, a rider booking. Smaller firms often follow the leaders.
From there the betting exchanges become the reference. An exchange price is set between backers and layers, so it is usually the sharpest estimate available once enough money has been matched, and most bookmakers watch it closely; a move on the exchange is often seen in shop and app prices minutes later. A price supported by real volume means more than a thin flicker at a new level.
Two prices settle most bets. The starting price (SP) is the official price at the off, returned from the on-course market. The Betfair starting price (BSP) is the exchange’s equivalent, computed from the money waiting to be matched at the off; it carries no bookmaker margin, which is why it is usually bigger than SP for the same horse, before commission. Betting basics explains early prices, SP and best odds guaranteed from the punter’s side.
A price moves for three reasons, and only one of them is about the horse.
A price moving is a fact worth knowing and nothing more. Market movers records the day’s biggest moves as they happen and non-runners the withdrawals that cause many of them; Standout prices shows where one bookmaker stands clear of the rest on a runner.
You can build a tissue of your own. It is the most useful exercise in betting, because it forces you to form a view before the market shows you one.
Where the market’s price is bigger than yours, you and the market disagree. The disagreement is the thing to examine, not a signal on its own: sometimes you have seen something the market has not, and sometimes the market knows something you do not. Over many races, your record is the only judge of which.
The arithmetic of betting is simple and unforgiving. If a horse’s true chance is 25% and you are paid 3/1, over a hundred such bets you would expect to win 25 and break even. Paid 4/1, the same 25 wins return a profit; paid 5/2, a loss. The bookmaker’s margin means the market price is, on average, a little shorter than the true chance for every runner — which is why nobody beats it by backing at the market’s own estimate.
The only thing that changes the sum is a price bigger than the horse’s true chance, repeatedly, which is what the tissue above is for. Two habits follow. Shop the price: the same horse is rarely the same price everywhere, and compare odds shows every listed bookmaker’s price. And keep a record of every bet, win or lose, worked out with the bet calculator, so you learn what your reading is actually worth rather than what you remember of it.
We do not tell you what to back or how much to stake. Where a selection appears on the site it is the output of a published method, shown with its complete record, win or lose, on the Fit record; its results are measured by fair A/E — actual wins against what the prices expected, with the bookmaker’s margin removed — which is explained on its own page. Betting should be for fun, with a budget you have set in advance.
An illustration, not a real race. Your tissue makes a horse a 2/1 chance (33%). The best price on offer is 7/2 (22%). The gap is eleven points: at 7/2 you are being paid as if the horse were far less likely than you think.
Before acting on that, the honest questions: is the market pricing in a non-runner, a change of going, a doubt about the yard that you have missed? Is your 33% the product of one strong run on soft ground when today is good to firm? If the view survives those, the price is the one your reasoning points to — and whether your reasoning is any good is something only your record over many such bets can tell you. One winner proves nothing; neither does one loser.
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Overround | The sum of a book’s implied chances above 100%: the bookmaker’s margin. |
| Tissue | A set of fair prices for a race before margin, the bookmaker’s or your own. |
| First show | The opening prices for a race. |
| Shading | Trimming the prices expected to attract money and lengthening the others. |
| SP | Starting price: the official price at the off, from the on-course market. |
| BSP | Betfair starting price: the exchange’s price at the off, without a bookmaker margin. |
| Steamer / drifter | A horse whose price keeps shortening / lengthening through the day. |
| Liability | What a bookmaker would pay out if a given horse won; books are shaped to keep it balanced. |
| Hedge | A bet placed to reduce a liability already taken, often on an exchange. |
| Rule 4 | The deduction from winnings when a horse is withdrawn after a price was taken; each-way betting explained covers it. |
Not for the opening prices, which come from their own models and traders. Once the exchange has matched real money it becomes the sharpest reference, and most firms move with it through the day. The exchange leads the market more often than it follows it.
Each firm has its own tissue, its own margin and its own view of where the money will go, and each shades its book differently. That is why shopping the price matters: our odds comparison shows every listed bookmaker’s price on every runner, and Standout prices shows where one stands clear of the rest.
It depends on the field and the firm. A small field at a competitive bookmaker can sit a few points over 100%; a big-field handicap commonly runs well above 110% at retail. An exchange book is close to 100% before commission. The overround on any race is a matter of arithmetic from the prices, so you can check it yourself.
The starting price (SP) is the official price at the off, returned from the on-course market and carrying a bookmaker margin. The Betfair starting price (BSP) is the exchange’s equivalent, computed from the money waiting at the off with no margin, which is why it is usually bigger before commission. Bookmakers settle at SP; exchange bets placed at BSP settle at BSP.
An early price is fixed when you take it; the starting price is whatever the market settles at. If your own tissue says the early price is bigger than fair, the early price is the one your reasoning points to, and best odds guaranteed, where a bookmaker offers it, pays SP if that turns out bigger. Waiting can improve a price in a quiet market and can lose it in an active one. Neither is right in general; it depends on what you think the price will do, which is a view like any other.
Neither. We show the prices the listed bookmakers offer, as they change, and our own figures for each runner, so you can build your own view. Where a selection appears it is the output of a published method shown with its record, win or lose. How the site is run is on About Kickthebookies.
Betting should be for fun, never a way to make money. Set limits and only stake what you can afford to lose; if gambling is affecting you or someone near you, help is free and confidential on our responsible gambling page. 18+ only. Questions or corrections: the contact page. Last reviewed 11 October 2026.
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