Southampton vs Portsmouth | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 14th September 2025
🗞️ Introduction
Southampton and Portsmouth square off in the south coast derby on 14 September 2025, a fixture that brims with rivalry and intensity. The sides haven’t met in the league for years, and with both back in the Championship, St Mary’s will be a cauldron with home support at full voice and a noisy away end packed to the rafters. Both clubs are looking to set a tone early in the campaign — Southampton trying to steady their form and reassert promotion ambitions, Portsmouth eager to show they belong after stepping up from League One.
Southampton are likely to stick with a possession-based 4-2-3-1, aiming to control the midfield through Flynn Downes and Shea Charles, with Cameron Archer stretching defences up top. Portsmouth are more direct in a 4-3-3, leaning on Colby Bishop’s hold-up play and transitions down the flanks from Josh Murphy and Paddy Lane. Expect the Saints to have more of the ball but Pompey to be dangerous when the game breaks.
🔑 Tactical Trends
- Southampton average 57% possession and recycle well across the back four, funnelling nearly half of their attacking moves down the left through Ryan Manning and Samuel Edozie.
- Portsmouth average just under 50% of the ball but are efficient on the break, with 55% of their goals this season coming after half-time as games open up.
- Set pieces could matter — Southampton score 0.3 goals a game from dead balls, Portsmouth 0.4, both with vulnerabilities defending them.
👕 Team News
Southampton — Welington is sidelined with an ankle injury. Otherwise they have a clean bill of health. Cameron Archer is expected to lead the line, supported by Adam Armstrong’s movement from wide areas. Downes and Charles anchor midfield, with Finn Azaz and Joe Aribo pushing on.
Portsmouth — Harvey Blair and Callum Lang are both ruled out with hamstring issues. Marlon Pack is a doubt but returned to training. Colby Bishop should spearhead the attack, with Josh Murphy and Paddy Lane providing width. Andre Dozzell and Owen Moxon give control in midfield.
📋 Form
Southampton’s last 10 competitive matches read W-W-D-L-W-D-W-L-D-W. That’s 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, scoring about 17 and conceding 10. They’ve kept clean sheets in half of those games, looking tighter at the back than last term. They tend to grow into matches, with 60% of their goals after the interval.
Portsmouth’s last 10 go W-D-W-D-L-W-D-W-L-D. That’s 4 wins, 5 draws and just 1 defeat, netting around 18 and conceding 12. They are difficult to beat, though draws have been a theme. They create plenty from wide areas and stay competitive well into the second half.
📊 Key Match Stats
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| Metric | Southampton | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Average goals scored per game | 1.67 | 1.8 |
| Average goals conceded per game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheet percentage | 50% | 25% |
| Average possession | 57% | 48% |
| Expected goals per game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Average corners per game | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Average shots (total / on target) | 15.3 / 3.8 | 12.5 / 4.3 |
| Average yellow cards per game | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Saints: 1.67 • Pompey: 1.8
Saints: 1.0 • Pompey: 1.2
Saints: 50% • Pompey: 25%
Saints: 57% • Pompey: 48%
Saints: 1.5 • Pompey: 1.4
Saints: 5.0 • Pompey: 4.8
Saints: 15.3 / 3.8 • Pompey: 12.5 / 4.3
Saints: 2.0 • Pompey: 2.3
🏟️ Home vs Away Form
Southampton at home: have won over half their recent fixtures at St Mary’s, keeping clean sheets in several. They often dominate the ball but occasionally get caught on the break.
Portsmouth away: steady but not spectacular, a mix of draws and narrow wins. They’ve averaged about 1.3 goals for and 1.4 against in recent away trips.
📈 League Table Snapshot
After four Championship games, Portsmouth are slightly better placed than Southampton, with the Saints mid-table after a mixed start.
| Team | Position | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals For | Goals Against | Goal Difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 12 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 5 |
| Portsmouth | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 7 |
💥 Momentum Graph
This shows the momentum curve — Southampton around mid-table, Portsmouth trending just above.
⚔️ Attack vs Defence
Goals Against
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🔔 BTTS Likelihood
🎯 Expected Goals (xG) Match-up
Southampton average 1.5 xG, Portsmouth 1.4, suggesting a fairly even chance creation picture.
🥅 Players to Watch
Cameron Archer (Southampton) — His pace in behind will stretch Portsmouth’s back line and create space for Armstrong and Azaz.
Colby Bishop (Portsmouth) — Leads the line, links play, and is clinical in the box. Southampton’s defenders will have to be on their toes.
🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction
Both sides arrive in steady form, but Southampton’s home advantage and greater control of possession should just edge it. Portsmouth will fancy themselves to score, but the Saints’ extra quality in the final third could prove decisive.
Prediction: Southampton 2–1 Portsmouth
💡 Betting Tips
Main Pick: Both Teams To Score — the derby dynamic plus both sides’ chance creation makes a strong case.
Value Bet: Southampton to win & over 2.5 goals — Saints’ stronger home numbers and late-game threat suggest a 2–1 or 3–1 type match.
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