Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool | Premier League Preview & Betting Tips | 22 Feb 2026

Form vibe: Forest have had a tough run overall, with a low scoring rate (0.8 a match) and plenty of games where they’re right on the edge defensively. Liverpool are steadier, averaging 1.6 goals scored with a bigger shot volume and more control of possession.

Expected tone: Forest trying to keep it tight, win second balls, and nick territory through corners and set-plays; Liverpool looking to camp in Forest’s half and keep the pressure on.

Key swing: First goal is massive. If Liverpool score early it can become “wave after wave”. If Forest keep it level into the second half, it starts to feel like one of those afternoons where tension creeps in.

This fixture tends to have a bit of bite to it, and the recent head-to-head run says Forest are absolutely capable of making Liverpool uncomfortable. The numbers here paint a clear picture: Forest aren’t creating loads of goals (0.8 per game), while Liverpool are producing more consistent attacking output (1.6) and a clear edge in control stats (60.8% average possession, 15.8 shots per match).

Forest’s route is pretty straightforward: stay in it, keep Liverpool at arm’s length, and make their moments count — especially if the match slows down into set pieces and stoppages. Liverpool’s route is also clear: start fast, pin Forest in, and make that possession and shot volume tell.

1) Control vs chaos: Liverpool’s 60.8% possession and 86.1% pass completion screams “we want to boss the ball”. Forest sit nearer 48.4% possession and 77.6% pass completion — more about surviving spells and playing the game in phases.

2) Shot volume gap: Liverpool average 15.8 shots (4.4 on target). Forest average 11.8 shots (3.2 on target). If Forest let Liverpool build momentum, it can quickly turn into a long afternoon of defending.

3) Set-piece leverage: Liverpool average 0.4 set-piece goals scored and 0.3 conceded per match. Forest don’t have a reliable set-piece goal rate in the data here, so their best “dead-ball edge” is more about winning territory and making Liverpool defend the second phase.

Forest’s last-10 results have been choppy, and the baseline reflects that: 0.6 points per game, just 10% clean sheets, and 1.7 conceded per match. They’re having to grind for everything.

Liverpool’s last-10 profile is stronger: 1.6 points per game, 1.6 scored, and a higher clean sheet rate (20%). Not flawless defensively (1.3 conceded), but much better at controlling matches through possession and shot pressure.

Forest at the City Ground: The crowd and the occasion can lift them, and the head-to-head history here suggests it’s rarely a comfy trip.

Liverpool away: With this much possession and pass completion, they tend to bring their game with them — the big question is whether Forest can disrupt the rhythm and keep Liverpool from turning pressure into clear chances.

So the feel is: Liverpool control, Forest disrupt. Whoever wins that battle probably wins the match.

The big visual here is Forest’s goals-against bar vs Liverpool’s goals-for bar — that’s where the pressure point sits.

The xG numbers say Liverpool are slightly stronger in chance creation, but Forest aren’t miles off on xG for — the issue is turning those chances into actual goals consistently.

This matchup has been wild recently, and Forest have had the better of it more often than you’d expect. Four Forest wins in the last five meetings is a proper eyebrow-raiser — especially that 3–0 at Anfield. Liverpool will remember that, and you’d expect them to be bang up for putting it right.

This feels like Liverpool edge it on the numbers — more goals, more shots, more control — but Forest have shown they can make this fixture awkward. The sensible read is Liverpool create enough to nick it, but it’s not guaranteed to be comfortable.

Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1–2 Liverpool

Below are the key numbers that shape smarter bet builders — goal trends, shot patterns, discipline, control stats, and the bits that hint at how the match might actually feel on the day.