Tottenham vs Arsenal | Premier League Preview & Betting Tips | 22 Feb 2026

Form vibe: Tottenham have won just once in their last ten, averaging 0.5 points per game in that spell. Arsenal are ticking along at 2.1 points per match.

Goal baseline: Spurs score 1.38 and concede 1.42 on average. Arsenal score 1.93 and concede just 0.74.

Control battle: Arsenal dominate possession at 57% on average, while Tottenham sit around 50.7% — this could turn into long spells of away control if Spurs don’t disrupt the rhythm.

Derbies can ignore form — but this one would have to ignore quite a lot. Tottenham’s recent run has been rough, and defensively they’ve looked vulnerable. Arsenal, by contrast, have found rhythm at both ends.

The numbers show a clear contrast. Arsenal create nearly 14.5 shots per game with almost five on target, while Tottenham average just over 11 shots and under four on target. That gap in sustained pressure often tells the story over 90 minutes.

Shot quality gap: Arsenal’s xG sits at 1.71 per game compared to Tottenham’s 1.31. Defensively it’s even clearer — Arsenal allow just 0.89 xG, Spurs allow 1.43.

Set-piece edge: Arsenal average 0.4 goals per game from set plays, Spurs 0.3. In a tight derby, that small margin can be decisive.

Second-half swings: Both sides score more after the break. Tottenham see 60% of goals in the second half; Arsenal 55%. This could open up late.

That defensive bar for Arsenal is the standout. Conceding under one goal per match across ten games gives them a serious platform in derby football.

Recent meetings heavily favour Arsenal. They’ve won four of the last five league clashes, including a 4-1 and 2-1 at the Emirates, plus 1-0 and 3-2 wins at Tottenham’s ground. Spurs haven’t beaten Arsenal in this run.

That psychological edge matters in derby games, especially when one side arrives in stronger form.

Tottenham will bring energy and the crowd will be up for it, but Arsenal’s structure, defensive base and shot volume advantage make them favourites here.

Prediction: Tottenham 1–2 Arsenal