Bologna vs Roma Predictions & Betting Tips – Serie A 25 April 2026
This one has a very different feel from a routine mid-table game. Bologna sit 8th on 48 points and still have reason to believe they can push higher, while Roma are 6th on 58 and chasing a strong finish in the European places.
Bologna’s season has been a bit stop-start. They have enough quality to post strong results, especially at home, but the inconsistency is obvious and the heavier defeats in recent weeks show they are not always easy to trust outright.
Roma hold the stronger overall season profile with more wins, better points-per-game and a tighter defensive record. That said, their recent away form is a concern after three straight away league defeats, which takes some shine off the usual away-favourite angle.
The recent head-to-head sample adds even more intrigue. These sides met twice in Europe this season and served up a 1-1 draw in Bologna before a wild 4-3 Bologna win in Rome. Add in a 2-2 league draw in Bologna last season, and there is every reason to think this will be competitive again.
Main Pick: Under 3.5 Goals
Even with some lively recent head-to-heads, the season goal averages still point towards a match that is more likely to stay just below the bigger totals than explode into a four or five-goal game.
Value Angle: Draw
Roma have the stronger season numbers, but Bologna have already caused them problems more than once and Roma’s recent away wobble makes the stalemate angle appealing.
Safer Bet: Roma or Draw
Roma average more points, score a bit more, concede less, and create the stronger expected-goals profile across the campaign. That gives them the steadier overall platform.
BTTS: Yes
Bologna average 1.27 goals per game and Roma 1.39, while three of the last five meetings have seen both sides score. The recent European clashes especially suggest neither team finds this match-up easy to control.
Read on for much more content, stats and match insight after the card below.
This looks like a proper balance-of-risk fixture.
Roma bring the cleaner season-long numbers, but Bologna have shown in this exact match-up that they can ask real questions. That makes protection angles and controlled goal lines look a bit more sensible than going too aggressive on the match result.
Best fit for the data: cautious goals angle with respect for both teams scoring
Decent confidence on controlled goal angles. Lower confidence on the outright winner because Bologna have already matched up well against Roma this season.
The last five meetings are very even and much more open than some people might expect. Bologna have won twice, Roma once, and there have also been two draws.
The standout part of the recent sample is how competitive Bologna have been in this fixture. They drew 1-1 at home in Europe, won 4-3 away in Rome, drew 2-2 in Bologna in league action last season, and even their defeat this season in Rome was only 1-0.
So while Roma come in as the side with the stronger overall campaign, this is not a fixture where they can expect an easy afternoon.
1) Bologna are comfortable having the ball, averaging 55% possession, and usually try to build with a bit more control than many sides around them.
2) Roma carry the stronger shot volume at around 14.2 per game and also post the better expected-goals numbers, which suggests they create the slightly cleaner openings over time.
3) Bologna’s issue is balance. Their attacking numbers are solid enough, but when games get stretched they can still be vulnerable, especially against sides with sharper movement and better final-third efficiency.
4) Roma’s recent away losses matter here. Their broader record is stronger, but on the road lately they have not managed big moments quite as well, which keeps this contest more open than the table alone might suggest.
Bologna: inconsistent. There have been strong wins mixed in with setbacks and at least one heavy defeat, so the ceiling is there but the week-to-week reliability is not.
Roma: still the more convincing side over the full season, though recent away league form has dipped enough to stop this from being a straightforward away pick.
Bologna at home: this is where they tend to look more convincing. The home setting gives them a better platform to control spells of possession and stay competitive against stronger sides.
Roma away: the recent run of three straight away league defeats is the main warning sign. Their overall away threat remains real, but that trend makes a cautious approach sensible.
This feels like a game where both sides have enough to hurt the other, but neither comes in clean enough to be trusted completely. Bologna’s home edge and strong recent record in the fixture keep them live, while Roma’s stronger season metrics still make them hard to oppose fully.
Prediction: Bologna 1-1 Roma
Who will win Bologna vs Roma?
The draw is the main lean, with Roma or draw the safer route if you want a bit more protection.
Best bet for Bologna vs Roma?
Under 3.5 goals looks the strongest angle based on the season averages and the overall balance of the match.
Will both teams score?
There is a slight lean towards yes, with both sides carrying enough attacking threat and recent meetings backing that up.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction?
Bologna 1-1 Roma.