Parma come into this match 14th on 39 points, which is not exactly comfortable, but it does put them in a far healthier position than Pisa. The visitors are bottom on 18 points and their season has been defined by long winless spells, low scoring output and a defence that too often gets exposed.

There is a clear difference in momentum as well. Parma have just beaten Udinese away and also taken draws against Napoli and Lazio in the last few weeks, which tells you they are at least competing well and staying in games. Pisa, by contrast, are on a rough run and the recent results point towards a side struggling badly for confidence.

The reverse fixture finished Pisa 0-1 Parma, and Parma have now won the last three competitive meetings between the clubs. That head-to-head edge matters here because neither side is especially free-scoring, so small margins could be enough again.

What makes this game interesting is that Parma are not exactly a high-output attacking side themselves. They only average 0.73 goals per game, so while they have the stronger platform, this still feels more like a controlled home win than a match to expect loads of goals from.

Parma have won the last three competitive meetings, which is a solid little edge coming into this one. The most recent was a 1-0 away win in December, and before that they beat Pisa 3-2 and 2-1 in Serie B.

The only Pisa win in the last five listed meetings came in Parma back in February 2023, while one of the other games finished 0-0. So the broader picture is that Parma have generally handled this fixture better, but it has not always been comfortable.

1) Parma are not dominant, but they are the more balanced side. They average more possession, more shots and the stronger expected-goals profile.

2) Pisa’s attacking return is too low for a bottom side needing miracles. Under one goal a game with just 9.8 shots per match is a tough platform to survive with.

3) Parma’s numbers suggest they do not need a wide-open game to get the job done. If they go ahead, this could become a very controlled contest.

4) Pisa concede 1.82 goals per game on average, which leaves them very little room for error. Against a side coming in with better confidence, that is a problem.

Parma are in a decent patch by their standards. A win away to Udinese followed draws against Napoli and Lazio shows they are staying competitive and picking up useful results.

Pisa are heading the other way. The recent run reads like a side stuck in a losing cycle, and with so few goals in the team it is hard to see where the turnaround comes from here.

Parma at home: not always fluent, but capable of digging in and staying organised, which is often enough against teams in the bottom places.

Pisa away: the overall season numbers suggest a side that struggles to cope when matches tilt against them, especially given the defensive average of 1.82 conceded per game.

Parma look the more reliable team, the recent form is better, and the head-to-head trend is on their side too. Pisa’s low attacking output makes it hard to back them to get enough going here.

Prediction: Parma 1-0 Pisa