Atalanta vs Cagliari | Serie A Preview & Betting Tips | 13 Dec 2025

Atalanta return to league action on a high after strong performances in cup and European competition, but their Serie A form has been a bit stop-start. Sitting just outside the top spots, this feels like a game they simply have to take three points from.

Cagliari arrive knowing expectations are low, but they’ve already shown this season they can frustrate bigger sides. The home crowd in Bergamo should be lively, expecting intensity and tempo from the first whistle, while the away end will be happy to see their side dig in.

Atalanta are likely to set up on the front foot, pushing numbers high and forcing the issue. Cagliari should stay compact, soak up pressure and try to nick moments when the game stretches.

Atalanta average 55% possession and 15 shots per game, showing their willingness to commit bodies forward. Over half of their goals come after half-time, when games open up and fatigue kicks in.

Cagliari, by contrast, average under 50% possession and just over 10 shots per match. They tend to keep things tight early, with half of their goals coming before the break, often from quick counters or second balls.

Atalanta’s last ten matches show five wins and five defeats, scoring 16 goals and conceding 12, with four clean sheets. When they win, they often do so convincingly, but defeats have come from lapses in concentration.

Cagliari over the same period have managed two wins, four draws and four losses. They’ve scored nine goals and conceded thirteen, keeping three clean sheets. It’s been gritty rather than pretty, but they’ve stayed competitive.

Atalanta at home have been solid rather than spectacular, conceding just over a goal per game and generally controlling matches. When they score first, they’re hard to stop.

Cagliari away from home have struggled for goals, averaging under one per game, but they do stay organised and rarely collapse completely.

Atalanta consistently create better chances, while Cagliari sit closer to the one xG mark, highlighting the attacking gap.

The last five meetings have been fairly tight. Atalanta have won three, Cagliari one, with one goalless draw in Bergamo earlier this year. Four of those five games were settled by a single goal.

Cagliari should make this uncomfortable, but Atalanta’s pressure and chance creation at home should eventually tell.

Prediction: Atalanta 2–0 Cagliari

Main pick: Atalanta to win – stronger attack, home advantage and better underlying numbers.

Value angle: Under 3.5 goals – Cagliari games are often tight and low scoring.