Benfica vs Real Madrid | Champions League Preview & Betting Tips | 17 Feb 2026

This is exactly the kind of Champions League night you circle as soon as the draw drops. Benfica come into it looking sharp and confident, scoring freely while keeping things tight at the back. Real Madrid arrive with that familiar “we’ll create loads, and we’ll back ourselves anywhere” vibe — and their recent numbers back it up.

The atmosphere should be loud and intense from the off: a home crowd ready to roar every tackle, and a proper away following that won’t go quiet if Madrid have a spell on the ball.

Tactically, it sets up as control vs control… but with different edges. Benfica’s last-10 profile leans to structured dominance (around 59% possession and 87% pass completion), while Madrid are similar for ball security (60% possession, 89% pass completion) but with a slightly bigger “turn pressure into goals” output. The big question is who wins the key zones around the box when the game tightens up.

1) Both teams create — and both do it with quality: Benfica average 2.01 xG per match, Madrid 2.34 xG. That’s a serious chance-creation baseline for a first leg, meaning neither side should be relying on low-probability pop shots to get on the scoresheet.

2) Benfica’s defensive profile is the big headline: they concede just 0.6 goals per game with 60% clean sheets across their last 10. That screams control and discipline — and it’s the exact kind of platform you want at home in Europe.

3) Corners could stack up quickly: Benfica average 6.5 corners a match and Madrid 6.8. When two teams attack in waves and spend time in the final third, set-piece volume tends to follow — even if the match is tight on the scoreboard.

Benfica last 10 (competitive): W9-D1-L0 — roughly 24 scored and 6 conceded, with 6 clean sheets. The vibe is simple: confident, clinical, and hard to break down.

Real Madrid last 10 (competitive): W9-D0-L1 — roughly 28 scored and 8 conceded, with 5 clean sheets. They’re scoring loads, and they’re not giving up much either — which is why this feels like a top-level chess match with sharp edges.

Trend-wise, both sides are finishing games strongly and not letting opponents settle. If someone scores first, the response should be immediate — neither team has been in the habit of sitting back and hoping.

Benfica at home: we’re working off overall last-10 numbers rather than a pure home-only split, but the profile still fits a strong home side — high possession, lots of shots on target (5.9 per game), and a defence that rarely gives up cheap goals.

Real Madrid away: again, overall rather than away-only, but Madrid’s game travels: strong ball security, big chance creation, and the sort of control that keeps them from getting dragged into chaos when the crowd gets loud.

So it’s a classic first-leg setup: Benfica will want a lead to protect, Madrid will want at least one away goal to flip the pressure for the second leg.

Madrid carry the bigger scoring rate, but Benfica’s goals-against number is elite in this sample. That’s why this screams “tight but high quality” — not necessarily loads of goals, but plenty of good chances.

Madrid’s xG For is the highest of the two (2.34 vs 2.01), but Benfica’s xG Against is slightly lower (0.78 vs 0.89). That’s a great summary of the tie: Madrid can create chances against anyone, and Benfica are built to limit the really clean looks.

There isn’t loads of modern competitive history between these two, but the older European Cup meetings are iconic. In 1965, they met twice with Madrid edging one leg 2–1 and Benfica winning the other 5–1 in Lisbon — basically chaos in the best possible way. There’s also the famous 1962 European Cup Final where Benfica beat Madrid 5–3.

Different era, obviously — but it tells you the scale of the matchup. This first leg in Lisbon feels like it could be tight early, then grow in intensity as soon as someone lands a punch.

Benfica’s defensive numbers and clean-sheet habit make them a proper problem at home, and they’re scoring enough to punish even small lapses. Madrid’s chance creation is relentless though, and in a tie like this it’s hard to bet against them finding at least one big moment.

Prediction: Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid

Main pick: Real Madrid draw no bet — it covers the “tight first leg” scenario while still leaning into Madrid’s higher xG For and scoring rate.

Value angle: Over 9.5 corners — the combined corners baseline is big (6.5 + 6.8 = 13.3), and both sides spend plenty of time in the final third.

Double chance: Real Madrid or draw — a sensible angle with two in-form sides where the away team still carries the slightly bigger attacking ceiling.

Over/under 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals — both teams are on the “over” side across the last 10, and the xG numbers point to enough quality chances.

Half-time/full-time: Draw/Real Madrid — first legs can start cagey, then open up once the match settles.

Over/under 9.5 corners: Over 9.5 corners — the profiles lean strongly this way.

Yellow cards prediction: Over 3.5 cards — combined yellows baseline is 3.8 (1.7 + 2.1), and knockout pressure usually raises the temperature.

Below are the key numbers that help shape smarter bet builders — goal output, defensive reliability, shot patterns, discipline, and the control stats that hint at how this match might flow.