Borussia Dortmund vs Atalanta | Champions League Preview & Betting Tips | 17 Feb 2026

This is the sort of tie where both sides look at it and think: “we can hurt you.” Dortmund come into it on a strong run domestically with goals flying in, but they’ve also been giving chances away. Atalanta are basically the same mood — loads of punch going forward, and usually happy to play in big, open moments if the game goes that way.

Atmosphere should be a proper Champions League one: home end pushing the tempo, away fans travelling, and the match intensity ramping up quickly if there’s an early chance or a big tackle.

Tactically, Dortmund’s numbers suggest an aggressive, front-foot approach: 15.1 shots a game and 2.2 goals scored on average. Atalanta are even more prolific in this 10-game sample at 2.4 goals per match and 13.9 shots, so they’ll be very comfortable trading punches — especially if Dortmund commit bodies forward and leave space behind.

1) This has “chance volume” written all over it: Dortmund average 15.1 shots with 5.8 on target. Atalanta are close behind at 13.9 shots with 5.3 on target. That’s not a low-event profile — it’s pressure spells at both ends.

2) Dortmund’s clean-sheet rate hints at an open back door: they’ve kept a clean sheet in just 20% of their last 10, conceding 1.3 per match. If Atalanta can survive the early wave, they’ll fancy getting chances.

3) Set-pieces could matter in a tie like this: Atalanta average 0.7 set-piece goals scored per match, Dortmund 0.5. Both concede 0.3–0.4 from set plays on average, so dead balls are a real route to a big moment.

Dortmund last 10 (competitive): W7-D2-L1 — roughly 22 scored and 13 conceded, with only 2 clean sheets. They’re winning a lot, but it’s not always calm… which is great for neutrals and a bit stressful for back lines.

Atalanta last 10 (competitive): W8-D1-L1 — roughly 24 scored and 10 conceded, with 40% clean sheets. They look sharp, confident, and they’re not shy about taking games away from teams when they get on top.

Dortmund at home: the data set here is overall (not a pure home-only split), but the profile still screams “push the game.” High shot volume, high goals scored, and a tendency for opponents to get looks too. If Dortmund start fast, it can feel like wave after wave.

Atalanta away: again, overall numbers rather than away-only, but their style translates well on the road: they create chances (1.78 xG per match), they score plenty, and they’re comfortable in matches that turn into a proper rhythm battle.

Net-net: Dortmund’s home energy vs Atalanta’s willingness to play straight through you. If either side scores early, this could open up quickly.

Both attacks look lively, but Atalanta’s defensive numbers are slightly tidier. Dortmund’s big question is whether they can keep their shape when the game gets stretched.

The xG numbers are close: Dortmund create around 1.92 per match, Atalanta 1.78. The bigger difference is in xG against — Dortmund at 1.35 versus Atalanta at 1.18 — which hints Atalanta might get the cleaner looks if the game opens up.

There isn’t a huge competitive history, but the meetings that exist are memorable. In the 2018 Europa League, Dortmund won 3–2 at home before a 1–1 draw in Italy. There was also a pre-season friendly in 2017 that Atalanta won 1–0.

The takeaway: when they’ve played competitively, it’s been lively and close — and that fits the way both sides are trending now.

Dortmund’s attacking output and home energy makes them dangerous, but the clean-sheet rate and goals-against profile suggests they’ll probably give something up. Atalanta are efficient and won’t panic if they have to soak up a spell — they’ll back themselves to land chances of their own.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Atalanta

Main pick: BTTS — both teams are scoring freely, and Dortmund in particular rarely keep it spotless at the back.

Value angle: Over 2.5 goals — Dortmund are 60% over 2.5 and Atalanta are 70% over 2.5 in this 10-game sample.

Double chance: Atalanta or draw — slightly stronger defensive baseline and plenty of punch to punish transitions.

Over/under 2.5 goals: Over 2.5 goals — the profiles both lean towards a game with multiple goals.

Half-time/full-time: Draw/Draw — first legs can start cautious, and both sides are happy to feel the game out before committing.

Over/under 9.5 corners: Over 9.5 corners — combined corners baseline is 11.8 (6.0 + 5.8), which leans over.

Yellow cards prediction: Over 4.5 cards — combined yellows baseline is 4.3 (2.3 + 2.0), and knockout pressure usually nudges that up.

Below are the key numbers that help shape smarter bet builders — goal trends, defensive reliability, shot patterns, discipline, and the control stats that hint at how the match might flow.