Burnley vs Newcastle | Premier League Preview & Betting Tips

This fixture lands at a crucial point for both sides. Burnley are scrapping for points near the bottom and every home game now feels massive, while Newcastle arrive looking to turn solid performances into a stronger run in the table.

Turf Moor should be tense and noisy, with the home crowd desperate for a response after a run of narrow defeats. Newcastle will travel with confidence after recent strong away displays.

Burnley are likely to set up in a compact 4-4-2 or 4-5-1, looking to stay organised and play direct when chances come. Newcastle should see more of the ball in a flexible 4-3-3, pressing higher and attacking the wide areas.

Burnley average just 46% possession and under 9 shots per game, showing a side that often plays without the ball and relies on moments rather than sustained pressure.

Newcastle’s numbers are more balanced: around 50% possession and over 12 shots per match, with a clear preference for quick transitions once they regain the ball.

Set-pieces could be decisive. Burnley concede nearly 0.3 goals per game from dead-ball situations, while Newcastle are comfortable putting the ball into dangerous areas.

Burnley (last 10): two wins, one draw, seven defeats — 11 scored, 20 conceded, with just one clean sheet. They’ve been competitive in spells but punished when games open up.

Newcastle (last 10): three wins, three draws, four defeats — 13 scored, 13 conceded, and three clean sheets. Solid overall, but not always ruthless.

Burnley at home: results have been tough, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with pressure building if they fall behind.

Newcastle away: generally competitive, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, and rarely out of games.

Newcastle consistently create more than Burnley in expected terms, while Burnley allow a high quality of chances against them.

Newcastle have dominated this fixture recently, winning all of the last five meetings. The most recent clash earlier this month ended 2-1 to Newcastle at St James’ Park, and Burnley have conceded at least two goals in four of those five games.

Burnley will make this awkward, especially early on, but Newcastle’s extra quality in the final third should tell over 90 minutes.

Prediction: Burnley 1-2 Newcastle United

Main pick: Newcastle to win – stronger xG profile and better defensive numbers.

Value angle: Newcastle & Over 1.5 goals – Burnley concede regularly.

Double chance: Newcastle or draw.

Over/under 2.5 goals: Over – Burnley games often open up late.

Half-time/full-time: Draw / Newcastle.

Over/under 9.5 corners: Under – both sides average low corner counts.

Yellow cards prediction: Around 4 – leaning over 3.5 cards.

Burnley’s low shot volume and Newcastle’s superior xG numbers point towards away-side dominance, making this a good spot to combine result, goals and discipline markets.