Crystal Palace vs Wolves | Premier League Preview | 22 February 2026
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Crystal Palace vs Wolves — Premier League (22 February 2026)
Two sides arriving with low recent scoring rates, but clear differences in chance quality: Palace’s xG output is notably higher than Wolves’ over the last 10 competitive games.
Quick Verdict
Expect a tight game-state with spells of Palace territory and Wolves looking to break quickly. Recent outputs point to a match where one big moment (set piece, transition, or error) can swing it.
Betting Angle
With both sides running low goals-for rates and modest Over 2.5 frequencies, the cleaner route is to price up the “not a shootout” scenario rather than picking a winner.
Crystal Palace’s recent results (W1 D3 L6) are backed by a relatively healthy chance-creation profile (xG 1.57 per game), but their finishing has lagged (0.8 goals scored per game). Wolves arrive with a similar record pattern (W1 D4 L5) and a lower attacking baseline (xG 1.0), yet their matches have generally stayed manageable because their goals-against rate is more controlled (1.3 conceded per game).
The tactical shape is likely to revolve around Palace attempting to establish sustained spells (48.4% average possession) and Wolves staying compact before countering (43.2% possession). The key question is whether Palace can convert pressure into goals, or whether Wolves can turn transitions into high-value chances.
Palace territory vs Wolves transitions. Palace take more shots (11.8) than Wolves (9.2), but both are producing ~3.2–3.4 shots on target per game — suggesting a narrow margin between “pressure” and “true threat”.
Both sides show the same split: 40% of goals in the first half and 60% in the second half — so late swings remain live if the match starts cagey.
Set-piece impact: Both average 0.3 set-piece goals scored and 0.3 conceded per game — a meaningful lever in a low-scoring matchup.
Discipline/tempo: Palace 2.6 yellows per game, Wolves 2.07 — physical spells likely.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| FORMLast 10 (W-D-L) | W1 D3 L6 | W1 D4 L5 |
| GOALSGoals For / Against | 0.8 / 1.7 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| xGxG For / xG Against | 1.57 / 1.33 | 1.00 / 1.85 |
| SHOTSShots (Total / On Target) | 11.8 / 3.2 | 9.2 / 3.4 |
| BALLPossession | 48.4% | 43.2% |
| CORNERSCorners | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| DEFClean Sheet % | 10% | 11% |
| DISCYellow Cards | 2.6 | 2.07 |
| O/UOver 2.5 Goals % | 50% | 44% |
| SPSet-Piece GF / GA | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| PASSPass Completion | 77.6% | 79.9% |
| DUELSTackles / Interceptions | 17 | 16 |
| PPGPoints Per Game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| TIMEGoal Timing (1H / 2H) | 40% / 60% | 40% / 60% |
Note: The matchup profiles as a low-output contest: Palace and Wolves average 1.5 total goals per game combined, while both show 60% of goals arriving after the break.
Practical angle: If the first half stays level, the second-half push is where market overreactions often appear — especially around set pieces (both: 0.3 set-piece goals scored per game).
Goals Against (per game)
Wolves
Recent meetings have leaned strongly towards Crystal Palace, with Palace unbeaten across the last five and winning four of them. That said, the most useful takeaway for this fixture is game-state resilience: Palace have found ways to turn pressure into goals against this opponent, while Wolves have struggled to shut down Palace’s decisive moments.
23 Nov 2025: Wolves 0–2 Palace
20 May 2025: Palace 4–2 Wolves
02 Nov 2024: Wolves 2–2 Palace
11 May 2024: Wolves 1–3 Palace
03 Sep 2023: Palace 3–2 Wolves
Main pick: Under 3.5 Goals
Goals angle: Under 2.5 Goals (lean) Under 1.5 Goals (small-stakes cover)
Result angle: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet Crystal Palace or Draw (1X)
Cards/corners note: Palace 2.6 yellows Wolves 2.07 yellows Corners: 4.4 vs 4.6
Why these fit: both teams have low goals-for baselines, moderate Over 2.5 hit-rates, and meaningful set-piece influence — a combination that often keeps scorelines capped unless the match opens early.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1–1 Wolves
Most likely flow: controlled spells from Palace, Wolves counter threat, and the second half becoming more decisive as both teams’ goal timing skews late.
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