Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest | Europa League Preview & Betting Tips | 19 Feb 2026
Form trend: Fenerbahce are volatile (wins mixed with losses), Forest are draw-heavy but hard to break down.
Expected tone: Fenerbahce likely to have more of the ball (56% avg) and try to pin Forest back; Forest to prioritise structure and game control.
Key swing: First goal. If it’s 0–0 into the second half, the under angles strengthen quickly.
This is a classic Europa League problem: one side wants to turn the match into a territorial grind, the other wants to turn it into a spacing puzzle. Fenerbahce generally play with the ball (56% possession) and generate decent shot volume (13.8 shots), but they’ve also been leaky in recent games (1.5 conceded per match; only 10% clean sheets).
Forest arrive with a very different profile. They don’t dominate possession (46%), they don’t create huge volumes (11.2 shots), but they’re extremely difficult to beat in open play and protect their box well (0.8 conceded per match; 70% clean sheets). That combination usually produces matches that stay close for a long time.
1) Territory vs structure: Fenerbahce’s possession and pass completion (84%) suggest longer spells in the attacking half. Forest’s numbers suggest they’re comfortable without the ball and organised enough to keep chances “small”.
2) Forest’s game-state control is the headline: With 80% of recent matches landing under 2.5, Forest are constantly shaping matches toward low-event football — long periods without big swings.
3) Set-pieces can flip it: Fenerbahce concede more from set-pieces (0.5 per match) than Forest (0.2). In a tight tie, one delivery can decide it — and discipline/corners matter.
Fenerbahce last 10 (competitive): a mixed run with several defeats, plus a tendency to concede first and chase. Their goal split (1.4 scored / 1.5 conceded) supports volatility.
Nottingham Forest last 10 (competitive): a draw-heavy stretch, but defensively strong — plenty of 0–0 and 1–1 type outcomes. Their averages (0.9 scored / 0.8 conceded) point to tight margins.
Fenerbahce at home: expect them to push the tempo early and try to turn possession into pressure phases and corners.
Forest away: the profile suggests patience — keep shape, slow the match down, and rely on defensive consistency to keep the tie in range.
Goals Against (per game)
Forest’s defensive baseline is the standout. Fenerbahce have enough to create, but the match profile leans toward fewer total goals.
The xG profiles explain the likely story: Fenerbahce are creating enough (1.42) but giving up almost as much (1.48), while Forest are lower-event overall and defend their box more cleanly (0.92 xG against).
There are no historical competitive meetings between these sides, which often means a cautious early phase — both teams figuring out tempo, physicality, and what “works” in the matchup before committing numbers.
Fenerbahce should have longer spells and more pressure moments, but Forest’s defensive consistency and low-scoring trend makes this feel like a tight game decided by a single key moment (set-piece, transition, or one big chance).
Prediction: Fenerbahce 1–0 Nottingham Forest
FEN
62%
Moderate confidence — the low-scoring shape is strong, but one early goal can always flip the whole match state.
Main pick: Under 2.5 goals — Forest’s recent trend is extremely low-event (80% under 2.5), and Fenerbahce are 60% under 2.5 in this sample.
Value angle: Nottingham Forest +1.0 (Asian handicap) — keeps you covered if Forest do what they’ve been doing: turning matches into tight draws.
Double chance: Nottingham Forest or draw — if you believe the clean-sheet edge and low-event profile holds.
Over/under 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 goals — the clearest trend match-up on the slate.
Half-time/full-time: Draw / Fenerbahce — cautious start, then home pressure can tell later.
Over/under 9.5 corners: Over 9.5 corners — combined corners baseline is 10.3 (5.7 + 4.6), and a “Fenerbahce territory” game-state can drive corners up.
Yellow cards prediction: Over 3.5 cards — combined yellows baseline is 4.3 (2.1 + 2.2), and game-management battles usually bring cards.
Below are the key supporting numbers shaping the angles — ⚽ goals, 📊 xG, 🎯 shot patterns, 🚩 corners and 🟨 discipline.
⚽ Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
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Who will win Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest?
It looks tight. Fenerbahce should have more territory at home, but Forest’s defensive numbers keep draw risk high.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction?
Fenerbahce 1–0 Nottingham Forest.
What time is Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest kick-off?
17:45 CET, Thursday 19 February 2026.
Will both teams score (BTTS)?
The model view is 41%, pointing slightly against BTTS.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
Lean under 2.5 — Forest are 80% under 2.5 recently, and the overall matchup looks low-event.
What’s the best bet for Fenerbahce vs Nottingham Forest?
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals.
Are corners likely to be high?
They can be — combined corners baseline is 10.3 per match, and a home-pressure script can push corners up.