Grand National Guide
The race that stops a nation. It may only be a grade three to true horse racing fans, so not the pinnacle of the sport, but to the average once a year punter it’s the main event. It’s a devilishly difficult handicap chase puzzle but the chance is there to bag a big price winner and collect some serious money.
Firstly – this is my opinion and my tip is not guaranteed to win. It’s impossible to be confident in this race but I have had a lot of winners in the National and fingers crossed we can land another.
Below is a horse by horse guide, as I see it.
I Am Maximus. The defending champion. He jumped this course brilliantly when sauntering to a win here last year. He carries more weight today but is absolutely a player in this race. I’d expect him to be in the places, but he may be vulnerable to one or two others in the finish. Good chance though.
Iroko. Has been campaigned with this race in mind all year, missing some valuable races to ensure he is fully prepped for the National. He does seem to lack a gear though, and Im not convinced with his jumping. He is a grade three type horse and this is a grade three race, so he isn’t out of place. I think we may have better horses than him in the field though now that the course is easier to jump following the welfare changes.
Stumptown. Very capable horse in the right grade. Is a bit small for the National fences but that didn’t stop Tiger Roll. Lacks the class of a few of his rivals. Sure to be staying on strongly at the end so if – big if- he is in contention jumping the last then you can be confident his position will only improve.
Hewick. The dream horse. Cost £800 and has delivered some massive wins for his connections. This would be some story if he can add the National to his CV. I can’t see it happening though, if he completes I’ll be surprised.
Perceval Legallois. A run of the mill handicap chaser. Will need to find massive improvement to win here. Not for me.
Vanillier. A loveable grey that jumps well, usually. Blows hot and cold though, he is either very good or useless. Depends what mood he is in when he gets out of bed.
Minella Cocooner. Hasn’t looked very good this year and this will be a tough test for him. Chance depends on the good ground bringing out a lot of improvement. He needs a lot of improvement to figure. Not impossible, but unlikely.
Intense Raffles. Has ran his best races on bad ground which he isn’t going to get at Aintree. Dodgy jumper. Questionable stayer. Pass.
Minella Indo. Former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner and third in this race last year. Is another year older now at 12 and his best days are behind him. Still has a chance however and I can see him reaching the places.
Hyland. A decent grey horse but lacks the class for this race. Well weighted though which could count in his favour. More likely to fall than win.
Kandoo Kid. Another grey horse. Has showed he can jump these national fences before in the Topham last year. Not without a chance but I question his stamina. Could run well to a point but fade out of it late on.
Meetingofthewaters. I’m at Aintree this week and trainer Willie Mullins said this is his pick of his runners. He is the master. Despite that, I’m still not having this horse. He has been strongly fancied many times and delivered exactly zilch. Doesn’t appear to stay the trip to my eyes anyway.
Beauport. Better chance than the market suggests. Won the Midlands national and has been campaigned for this race since. Fair weight, will handle the ground, stays. Might lack the class of a few though.
Three Card Brag. This horse can’t jump very well. Not ideal for the National is it. Has plenty of ability so will go close with an error free round, but the chances of him having an error free round are about 50/1.
Nick Rockett. Solid form, albeit unlikely to win. Good runs in Ireland this year in races that have traditionally thrown up National winners. Has lots to find though to be competitive here.
Grangeclare West. A completely unknown force in handicaps. Stays well seemingly but follows a good run with a bad one. Unpredictable. More likely to not complete than to win.
Senior Chief. No idea how he will fare stepped up in trip, it could be exactly what he needs or it could be a disaster. In short – no idea. What I do know is that his jumping was crap last time he ran and a repeat of that will see him fall at Aintree.
Monbeg Genius. Has to improve beyond all recognition to be involved in the finish here. The trainer knows what it takes to win the race though.
Bravemansgame. You are brave if you back this horse. He’s on the decline and it’s a quick decline. There’s more chance of Kier Starmer being nice to pensioners than this horse winning today,
Threeunderthrufive. A strong stayer but his jumping isn’t as strong. I wouldn’t be confident he will compete the course.
Twig. Let’s keep it simple. Not a chance.
Fil Dor. My selection to win. A lovely grey who is completely unexposed at this trip. Has had a decent season leading up to this race and gets the assistance of the stable jockey. The pick of trainer Gordon Elliott’s runners, he seems to jump well, travel well, is well weighted… if he stays, he wins at a huge price.
Stay Away Fay. Has been useless this season. This race is a last throw of the dice really.
Duffle Coat. Reserve. If he runs he won’t win.
Appreciate It. My second choice. Solid jumper, travels through his races, has a touch of class about him. Never tried this far so it’s a question of does he stay. If he does then he has a good chance of making the places at a lovely 66/1.
Hitman. Probably will hit the floor. Can’t jump.
Chantry House. Well past his best and would probably still be pulled up if he was the only runner to set off.
Broadway Boy. Unlikely to complete in my opinion.
Horantzau D’airy. Not a hope.
Conflated. Classy horse on his day, but best days are behind him.
Idas Boy. A million to one.
Royale Pagaille. Better in soft ground and could struggle on the good ground at Aintree. Has the class to run well though if he goes on the sound surface.
Celebre D’Allen. Outsider for a reason. Not very good.
So, what are my predictions?
1st choice: Fil Dor at 80/1.
2nd choice: Appreciate It at 66/1.
3rd choice: I Am Maximus (take SP)
Good luck!
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Three tips for todays racing at Aintree: