Monaco vs Paris Saint-Germain | Champions League Preview & Betting Tips | 17 Feb 2026

This is Champions League knockout football at its purest: big badge vs big badge, a proper test of nerve, and the sort of tie where the tempo changes the moment someone lands the first punch. Benfica come into it in brilliant form domestically, scoring freely while keeping things tight at the back. Real Madrid arrive with that familiar “win most weeks” feel — lots of goals, lots of control, and the ability to turn a tight match into a two-goal cushion in about ten minutes.

Expect a loud stadium, a big travelling away pocket, and a game that starts with plenty of edge — not reckless, but definitely intense.

Tactically, it looks like a clash of two confident, front-foot teams. Benfica’s numbers point to a side that like to play higher up the pitch (59% possession, 14.7 shots, 5.9 on target) and keep opponents pinned with pressure and clean build-up. Madrid bring similar control (60% possession, 15.6 shots, 6.2 on target) but with an extra gear in transition — if Benfica over-commit, Madrid are the type that punish you fast.

1) High-quality chance creation on both sides: Benfica average 2.01 xG per game and Madrid 2.34 — that’s a serious chance baseline for a knockout tie. Even if it’s cagey early, both teams create enough that one spell of pressure can swing the whole game.

2) Benfica’s defensive numbers scream “hard to break down”: Just 0.6 conceded per match with 60% clean sheets is elite over a 10-game sample. If they keep the game in front of them and defend the box well, Madrid may have to earn it rather than just roll through.

3) Set-pieces could be a quiet difference-maker: Both sides score a decent chunk from dead balls (Benfica 0.6 set-piece goals per match, Madrid 0.7). In ties like this, one good delivery or one scruffy second ball can be the entire story.

Benfica last 10 (competitive): W9-D1-L0 — that’s proper form. Using the per-game averages, they’re roughly 24 scored and 6 conceded, with 6 clean sheets in that run. The vibe is confident and controlled: they tend to score first, manage games well, and rarely give up cheap chances.

Real Madrid last 10 (competitive): W9-D0-L1 — ruthless, with one small wobble in there. Roughly 28 scored and 8 conceded, with 5 clean sheets. They’re creating plenty, finishing plenty, and even when games are tight, they usually find a way to force the issue.

Benfica at home: we’re working off overall last-10 numbers rather than a pure home-only split, but the profile still fits a strong home side — high shot volume, high possession, and a defence that rarely gives up freebies. That combination usually plays well in a big European night with the crowd behind you.

Real Madrid away: again, this is overall rather than away-only, but Madrid’s game travels: strong ball security (89% pass completion), big chance creation, and a defensive baseline that usually stops matches becoming wild unless they want them to.

So it feels like a classic first-leg setup: Benfica will want to stay in control and take a lead if it’s there; Madrid will want at least one moment they can take back with them.

Madrid carry the bigger scoring rate, but Benfica’s goals-against number is elite in this sample. That’s why this feels “tight but high quality” — not necessarily loads of goals, but plenty of proper chances.

Both sides consistently create big chances: Benfica at 2.01 xG and Madrid at 2.34. The gap isn’t massive — the bigger story is how low both “xG against” numbers are (0.78 vs 0.89), which points to a game where the best chances might be limited… but very, very good when they arrive.

There isn’t loads of modern competitive history here, but the old-school European storylines are massive. They’ve met in the European Cup era, including a famous final in 1962 where Benfica won 5–3 on neutral ground. In 1965, Madrid edged a home win (2–1) but Benfica also hit them with a huge 5–1 at home earlier in that tie.

The most recent meeting on the list is a pre-season friendly in 2012 that finished 5–2 to Benfica — not something you lean on heavily, but it does underline the same point: when these two get space and rhythm, goals can happen quickly.

This feels like a match where Benfica’s defensive level can keep it controlled, but Madrid’s ability to create chances even in “quiet” games means they’ll still get moments. Benfica are in the habit of managing matches brilliantly right now, so I can see them staying in it all night — but it’s hard to back against Madrid finding at least one big chance.

Prediction: Benfica 1-1 Real Madrid

Below are the key numbers that help shape smarter bet builders — goal trends, shot patterns, discipline, set-pieces, and the control stats that hint at how the match might flow.