Sunderland vs Fulham | Premier League Preview & Betting Tips | 22 Feb 2026

Form vibe: Sunderland’s last-10 reads like a rollercoaster, but they’ve stayed competitive with a decent goals-against number (1.15 conceded per game). Fulham have been more erratic in results, and they’re conceding 1.54 per match — which keeps the door open for Sunderland to land a punch.

Expected tone: Fulham seeing more of the ball (51% possession) and working it into dangerous areas; Sunderland playing in phases, defending first, then making their moments count — especially from dead balls.

Key swing: If Sunderland score first, this becomes a proper “hold your nerve” home performance. If Fulham score first, Sunderland will have to open up, and that’s where the match can stretch.

This feels like a really classic Premier League mid-table scrap: one side leaning on effort, crowd, and set-pieces; the other trying to control the match with the ball and turn pressure into chances. Sunderland are averaging 44% possession and under 10 shots a game (9.69), so they’re not built around dominating opponents. They’re built around staying in games and being efficient when chances come.

Fulham, on the other hand, put up better control and shot volume numbers (51% possession, 12 shots per game). They’re not watertight defensively, though — 1.54 conceded per match and only 19% clean sheets — so Sunderland will absolutely believe there’s something to get at here.

1) Ball control vs defensive shape: Fulham’s passing and possession profile (80% pass completion, 51% possession) suggests they’ll try to control territory. Sunderland’s lower possession (44%) points to a compact, reactive game — letting Fulham have it, then snapping into challenges and breaking into space.

2) Set-pieces could be massive: Sunderland average 0.35 set-piece goals scored per game and concede 0.30. Fulham sit at 0.30 scored and 0.30 conceded. In a match that could come down to fine margins, a corner or free-kick can be the difference.

3) Shot quality battle: Fulham edge xG for (1.36) vs Sunderland (1.15), but Sunderland’s xG against (1.65) is the worry — if Fulham get into rhythm and create “clean” chances, it could tip quickly.

Sunderland’s numbers are pretty honest: 1.04 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per match with a 31% clean sheet rate. That’s a team that can defend well enough to compete most weeks, even if they’re not exactly flying in attack.

Fulham score more (1.35), but they give you chances the other way (1.54 conceded) and only keep clean sheets 19% of the time. So the game feels like: Fulham will create more, Sunderland will try to keep it close and make their moments count.

Sunderland at the Stadium of Light: You’d expect a proper loud home crowd and plenty of “second ball” energy. The numbers suggest Sunderland are happy to win ugly — keep it tight, then nick something through a set-piece or one clean break.

Fulham away: Fulham’s control stats should travel, but if they’re sloppy with the ball or leave space behind, this can quickly turn into a stop-start match where Sunderland feel right at home.

So the flow feels clear: Fulham trying to keep it tidy and structured; Sunderland trying to disrupt that rhythm and make it a fight.

Fulham’s goals-for is higher, but their goals-against is too — which is exactly why Sunderland will fancy they can get on the scoresheet here.

The xG picture says Fulham have the slightly cleaner chance creation, but Sunderland’s xG against is high — which hints Fulham should get looks if they play with tempo.

These two have had some tight games over the years, and the recent Premier League meeting was a proper low-margin one. Fulham nicked it 1–0 at Craven Cottage in November, and the cup ties before that were full of swings and moments.

Fulham should have more control and probably create the better chances, but Sunderland’s defensive baseline and set-piece threat makes this feel like a game that stays tight for a long time. If Sunderland can keep it level heading into the final half-hour, this turns into a nervy one.

Prediction: Sunderland 1–1 Fulham

Below are the key numbers that shape smarter bet builders — goals, shots, discipline, set-pieces, and the control stats that hint at how the match might flow.