West Ham vs Brighton | Premier League Preview & Betting Tips | 30 Dec 2025

West Ham head into this one under pressure after another narrow defeat, while Brighton arrive with slightly steadier form and a clear identity in how they play. Points feel vital for the hosts, who are hovering in the lower half and badly need something positive before the calendar turns.

The London Stadium should be tense but expect full backing from the home crowd. Brighton’s travelling support will make noise too, knowing their side tend to enjoy these away-day tests.

West Ham are likely to sit in a compact shape and look to play forward quickly, while Brighton should see more of the ball and try to control territory through patient build-up.

West Ham average under 50% possession and fewer than 10 shots per game, which points to a reactive approach rather than sustained pressure. They also concede a high 2.06 goals per match, leaving little margin for error.

Brighton, by contrast, average 55% possession and over 13 shots per game. Their xG numbers suggest they create chances consistently, even if results don’t always follow immediately.

Set pieces could be key. West Ham concede over 0.4 goals per game from dead-ball situations, while Brighton score more than 0.3 per match from similar moments.

West Ham’s last ten matches have produced a low return: one win, three draws and six defeats. They’ve scored around 11 goals in that stretch and conceded just over 20, keeping clean sheets in fewer than one in five games.

Brighton’s last ten reads better: four wins, three draws and three defeats, with roughly 17 goals scored and 14 conceded. They’ve been competitive most weeks, even when results haven’t fully gone their way.

West Ham at home have struggled for consistency, averaging just over a goal scored per match while conceding more than two.

Brighton away from home are capable of controlling games, averaging around 1.7 goals scored and conceding roughly 1.4, which makes them awkward opponents on the road.

Brighton consistently post stronger xG numbers at both ends, suggesting they create the better chances overall.

The last few meetings have been tight. The reverse fixture earlier this month ended 1–1, while the previous four meetings included two draws and two narrow wins split between the sides.

West Ham will be competitive at home, but Brighton’s control and chance creation give them a slight edge if they stay patient.

Prediction: West Ham 1–2 Brighton

Main pick: Brighton draw no bet – stronger underlying numbers and more consistent performances.

Value angle: BTTS – Yes – West Ham concede often but usually find a goal.

Double chance: Brighton or draw.

Over/under 2.5 goals: Over – West Ham matches clear this line regularly.

Half-time/full-time: Draw/Brighton – visitors often grow into games.

Over/under 9.5 corners: Over – both sides average above five per match.

Yellow cards prediction: Around 4–5 total, leaning over 3.5 cards.

The numbers point towards goals, cards and Brighton avoiding defeat, making those angles useful for bet builders.